ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#161 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:30 am

Is official= Recon will fly this afternoon with plane departing at 1 PM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 18/1700Z
D. 20.0N 91.5W
E. 18/1630Z TO 18/2100Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115708&p=2345638#p2345638
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143871
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#162 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:57 am

cycloneye wrote:Is official= Recon will fly this afternoon with plane departing at 1 PM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 18/1700Z
D. 20.0N 91.5W
E. 18/1630Z TO 18/2100Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115708&p=2345638#p2345638


They added a new remark having cancellation for today.

5. ADDED: MISSIONS TASKED FROM TCPOD WERE CANX BY NHC AT 18/13Z
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#163 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:59 am

Recon is canned for today.
0 likes   
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#164 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:17 am

i dont think that supprise that was canned
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#165 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:19 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Recon is canned for today.


Don't think so. NHC website and recon plan info online says otherwise.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6677
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#166 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:22 am

Very interesting sat. loop. Looks like 95L is about to exit the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-long.html
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2772
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#167 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:24 am

Stormcenter wrote:Very interesting sat. loop. Looks like 95L is about to exit the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-long.html


Looking at that loop is sure does not look like it is stacked very well... my humble opinion only..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#168 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:24 am

i can see the nhc soon saying " conditions appear marginally favorable for development "
0 likes   
Top
ninel conde

#169 Postby ninel conde » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:25 am

im surprised it was cancelled.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#170 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:30 am

Portastorm wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Recon is canned for today.


Don't think so. NHC website and recon plan info online says otherwise.


Mea culpa. Wx_Warrior is correct. NHC added info indicating the mission was cancelled. I'll say three Hail Euros now in honor of Wx_Warrior. :wink:
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6677
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#171 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:32 am

Maybe they shouldn't have cancelled it. IMO
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re:

#172 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:37 am

Stormcenter wrote:Maybe they shouldn't have cancelled it. IMO


its barely offshore they cant fly over land... they could have maybe moved it to later tonight I guess.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1486
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

#173 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:47 am

Doesn't look like it is in any hurry to develop with 20 knots of northwesterly shear on top of it and two centers that have decoupled (mid level and lower level). No need for recon today. You can clearly see what you need to see on satellite. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10162
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

#174 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:49 am

Another weak sheared mess is about all see before it merges with the front. Florida could see some rain though next week.
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#175 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:53 am

Portastorm wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Recon is canned for today.


Don't think so. NHC website and recon plan info online says otherwise.


Mea culpa. Wx_Warrior is correct. NHC added info indicating the mission was cancelled. I'll say three Hail Euros now in honor of Wx_Warrior. :wink:


I'll favorite/star this post! LOL...All good. Saw it on my weather related twitter feed. :D
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2772
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re:

#176 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:56 am

SFLcane wrote:Another weak sheared mess is about all see before it merges with the front. Florida could see some rain though next week.


Yep vis sat loops paints a pretty ugly picture right now on this system....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1486
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

#177 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:14 pm

A downgrade to 60/70 is possible at 2 pm...doubt they would lower it too much...
0 likes   
Top
TJRE
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:04 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#178 Postby TJRE » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:16 pm

Nice visible loop here
lots of menu options
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Yucatan-vis-12

latest still vis

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re:

#179 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:22 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:A downgrade to 60/70 is possible at 2 pm...doubt they would lower it too much...


pretty sure its staying the same.. the circ center just moving offshore... convection should begin to increase with it over the next few hours. there is good model support so no reason to lower .. convection falling over land is normal
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#180 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:25 pm

circ center right here..

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 481 guests