ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#161 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:30 am

Is official= Recon will fly this afternoon with plane departing at 1 PM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 18/1700Z
D. 20.0N 91.5W
E. 18/1630Z TO 18/2100Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115708&p=2345638#p2345638
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#162 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:57 am

cycloneye wrote:Is official= Recon will fly this afternoon with plane departing at 1 PM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 18/1700Z
D. 20.0N 91.5W
E. 18/1630Z TO 18/2100Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115708&p=2345638#p2345638


They added a new remark having cancellation for today.

5. ADDED: MISSIONS TASKED FROM TCPOD WERE CANX BY NHC AT 18/13Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#163 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:59 am

Recon is canned for today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#164 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:17 am

i dont think that supprise that was canned
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#165 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:19 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Recon is canned for today.


Don't think so. NHC website and recon plan info online says otherwise.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#166 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:22 am

Very interesting sat. loop. Looks like 95L is about to exit the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#167 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:24 am

Stormcenter wrote:Very interesting sat. loop. Looks like 95L is about to exit the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-long.html


Looking at that loop is sure does not look like it is stacked very well... my humble opinion only..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#168 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:24 am

i can see the nhc soon saying " conditions appear marginally favorable for development "
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#169 Postby ninel conde » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:25 am

im surprised it was cancelled.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#170 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:30 am

Portastorm wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Recon is canned for today.


Don't think so. NHC website and recon plan info online says otherwise.


Mea culpa. Wx_Warrior is correct. NHC added info indicating the mission was cancelled. I'll say three Hail Euros now in honor of Wx_Warrior. :wink:
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#171 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:32 am

Maybe they shouldn't have cancelled it. IMO
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#172 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:37 am

Stormcenter wrote:Maybe they shouldn't have cancelled it. IMO


its barely offshore they cant fly over land... they could have maybe moved it to later tonight I guess.
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#173 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:47 am

Doesn't look like it is in any hurry to develop with 20 knots of northwesterly shear on top of it and two centers that have decoupled (mid level and lower level). No need for recon today. You can clearly see what you need to see on satellite. :wink:
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#174 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:49 am

Another weak sheared mess is about all see before it merges with the front. Florida could see some rain though next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#175 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:53 am

Portastorm wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Recon is canned for today.


Don't think so. NHC website and recon plan info online says otherwise.


Mea culpa. Wx_Warrior is correct. NHC added info indicating the mission was cancelled. I'll say three Hail Euros now in honor of Wx_Warrior. :wink:


I'll favorite/star this post! LOL...All good. Saw it on my weather related twitter feed. :D
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Re:

#176 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:56 am

SFLcane wrote:Another weak sheared mess is about all see before it merges with the front. Florida could see some rain though next week.


Yep vis sat loops paints a pretty ugly picture right now on this system....
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#177 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:14 pm

A downgrade to 60/70 is possible at 2 pm...doubt they would lower it too much...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#178 Postby TJRE » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:16 pm

Nice visible loop here
lots of menu options
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=Yucatan-vis-12

latest still vis

Image

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Re:

#179 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:22 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:A downgrade to 60/70 is possible at 2 pm...doubt they would lower it too much...


pretty sure its staying the same.. the circ center just moving offshore... convection should begin to increase with it over the next few hours. there is good model support so no reason to lower .. convection falling over land is normal
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 70% - 80%

#180 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:25 pm

circ center right here..

Image
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