Possible Subtropical Storm Forming off SE U.S. Coast

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS forms a low at 42hrs and seems to hint at it becoming more concentric after 48hrs around the northern Bahamas, is this tropical or subtropical or extratropical

[weatherwindow]

The 0zGFS forms a low at 42hrs and seems to hint at it becoming more concentric after 48hrs around the northern Bahamas, is this tropical or subtropical or extratropical

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Good morning HM...per the TAFB, it appears as a 1004 frontal low. As the low translate slowly east, again according to the TAFB, it remains closely involved with the front,...Grtz from KW, Rich

[Sanibel]

That second blob is currently thundering and raining on me but is probably another 2013 dud.

[vbhoutex]

Still getting some scattered rains along the upper TX Coast from that low. But it is currently mostly cloudy with some sun peaking through at my place in W Houston and I haven't had any rain since the 5.37" we got Friday night.

[ronjon]

00z Euro shows a strong tropical storm or hurricane moving into Ocean City MD from the low pressure that develops east of Florida. Has some support from the CMC too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013092400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Ntxw]

00z Euro shows a strong tropical storm or hurricane moving into Ocean City MD from the low pressure that develops east of Florida. Has some support from the CMC too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013092400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Not tropical, part of a trough. Would be extratropical if that.

[stormlover2013]

That's a pretty strong system for east coast!! Man that would be bad

[Blown Away]

I think Joe B has an obsession with tropical systems hitting the NE...

[ninel conde]

euro has the right set up with a high over the northeast and low pressures over greenland, but will it verify.

[wxman57]

00z Euro shows a strong tropical storm or hurricane moving into Ocean City MD from the low pressure that develops east of Florida. Has some support from the CMC too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013092400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Not tropical, part of a trough. Would be extratropical if that.

That's right, Ntxw. I just looked at the high-res 00Z Euro and it is forecasting a subtropical storm that forms in the vicinity of an upper-level low. Winds above the surface low are 50-70 kts (300mb). Probably partly tropical - something that could be named. Moves it right into NJ/Long Island. I tracked the vorticity back to a tropical wave that has been moving through the Caribbean for the past week. The vorticity passed western Cuba moving north into the Gulf about 36 hours ago.

[ROCK]

looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[wxman57]

looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

You have to look at a 3-dimensional projection of the system. Surface low with upper low just to the NW and 50-70kt jet overhead. Not a tropical setup. That's not to say such a storm wouldn't be bad. It would have a much larger wind field than a typical TC, sort of like Sandy did. I'd definitely be paying attention to what spins up off the SE U.S. Coast if I lived along the East Coast.

[ronjon]

Dr Jeff Masters has his take on the European forecasted storm off the east coast.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2532

[CrazyC83]

looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

You have to look at a 3-dimensional projection of the system. Surface low with upper low just to the NW and 50-70kt jet overhead. Not a tropical setup. That's not to say such a storm wouldn't be bad. It would have a much larger wind field than a typical TC, sort of like Sandy did. I'd definitely be paying attention to what spins up off the SE U.S. Coast if I lived along the East Coast.

Would it be warm core and non-frontal though? That qualifies as tropical. Possible analog being the last storm of 1866?

[CrazyC83]

The Euro sure makes things interesting to say the least!!

[storm4u]

I wouldnt worry about it yet until something actually pops up the way this year has been going but it is interesting

looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

You have to look at a 3-dimensional projection of the system. Surface low with upper low just to the NW and 50-70kt jet overhead. Not a tropical setup. That's not to say such a storm wouldn't be bad. It would have a much larger wind field than a typical TC, sort of like Sandy did. I'd definitely be paying attention to what spins up off the SE U.S. Coast if I lived along the East Coast.

[wxman57]

I'd say that something like the Euro is forecasting is very much a possibility. The GFS often makes the mistake of not developing such lows and driving them out to sea to the east. The Euro may be onto something here. Pay attention if you're living on the East U.S. Coast. Sandy-type track but a much weaker system. Could still cause significant problems for the region.

[Hurricaneman]

The range of possibilities is from garden variety Noreaster to Subtropical storm like the Euro to the Saxby Gale of 1869 like the Canadian but if I'm a betting man I would go with the Euro as the GFS seems too progressive in this pattern

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[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS seems to split the energy at 114hrs, none of the other models do that so either its right or its having convective feedback issues

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

Saxby Gale? That would be an interesting setup to basically repeat it...the difference from Sandy is that the trough is a lot weaker so the curve shouldn't be as sharp, but still prevalent with a stronger ridge...