Possible Subtropical Storm Forming off SE U.S. Coast
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- Hurricaneman
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Possible Subtropical Storm Forming off SE U.S. Coast
The 0zGFS forms a low at 42hrs and seems to hint at it becoming more concentric after 48hrs around the northern Bahamas, is this tropical or subtropical or extratropical
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- weatherwindow
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Re: possible low formation on cold front
Hurricaneman wrote:The 0zGFS forms a low at 42hrs and seems to hint at it becoming more concentric after 48hrs around the northern Bahamas, is this tropical or subtropical or extratropical
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
Good morning HM...per the TAFB, it appears as a 1004 frontal low. As the low translate slowly east, again according to the TAFB, it remains closely involved with the front,...Grtz from KW, Rich
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Re: possible low formation on cold front
That second blob is currently thundering and raining on me but is probably another 2013 dud.
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- vbhoutex
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Re: possible low formation on cold front
Still getting some scattered rains along the upper TX Coast from that low. But it is currently mostly cloudy with some sun peaking through at my place in W Houston and I haven't had any rain since the 5.37" we got Friday night.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
00z Euro shows a strong tropical storm or hurricane moving into Ocean City MD from the low pressure that develops east of Florida. Has some support from the CMC too.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013092400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013092400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
ronjon wrote:00z Euro shows a strong tropical storm or hurricane moving into Ocean City MD from the low pressure that develops east of Florida. Has some support from the CMC too.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013092400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Not tropical, part of a trough. Would be extratropical if that.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
That's a pretty strong system for east coast!! Man that would be bad
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- Blown Away
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

I think Joe B has an obsession with tropical systems hitting the NE...

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- wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Ntxw wrote:ronjon wrote:00z Euro shows a strong tropical storm or hurricane moving into Ocean City MD from the low pressure that develops east of Florida. Has some support from the CMC too.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013092400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Not tropical, part of a trough. Would be extratropical if that.
That's right, Ntxw. I just looked at the high-res 00Z Euro and it is forecasting a subtropical storm that forms in the vicinity of an upper-level low. Winds above the surface low are 50-70 kts (300mb). Probably partly tropical - something that could be named. Moves it right into NJ/Long Island. I tracked the vorticity back to a tropical wave that has been moving through the Caribbean for the past week. The vorticity passed western Cuba moving north into the Gulf about 36 hours ago.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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- wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
ROCK wrote:looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
You have to look at a 3-dimensional projection of the system. Surface low with upper low just to the NW and 50-70kt jet overhead. Not a tropical setup. That's not to say such a storm wouldn't be bad. It would have a much larger wind field than a typical TC, sort of like Sandy did. I'd definitely be paying attention to what spins up off the SE U.S. Coast if I lived along the East Coast.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Dr Jeff Masters has his take on the European forecasted storm off the east coast.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2532
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2532
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
wxman57 wrote:ROCK wrote:looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
You have to look at a 3-dimensional projection of the system. Surface low with upper low just to the NW and 50-70kt jet overhead. Not a tropical setup. That's not to say such a storm wouldn't be bad. It would have a much larger wind field than a typical TC, sort of like Sandy did. I'd definitely be paying attention to what spins up off the SE U.S. Coast if I lived along the East Coast.
Would it be warm core and non-frontal though? That qualifies as tropical. Possible analog being the last storm of 1866?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
I wouldnt worry about it yet until something actually pops up the way this year has been going but it is interesting
wxman57 wrote:ROCK wrote:looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
You have to look at a 3-dimensional projection of the system. Surface low with upper low just to the NW and 50-70kt jet overhead. Not a tropical setup. That's not to say such a storm wouldn't be bad. It would have a much larger wind field than a typical TC, sort of like Sandy did. I'd definitely be paying attention to what spins up off the SE U.S. Coast if I lived along the East Coast.
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- wxman57
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Re: Possible Subtropical Storm Forming off SE U.S. Coast
I'd say that something like the Euro is forecasting is very much a possibility. The GFS often makes the mistake of not developing such lows and driving them out to sea to the east. The Euro may be onto something here. Pay attention if you're living on the East U.S. Coast. Sandy-type track but a much weaker system. Could still cause significant problems for the region.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Possible Subtropical Storm Forming off SE U.S. Coast
The range of possibilities is from garden variety Noreaster to Subtropical storm like the Euro to the Saxby Gale of 1869 like the Canadian but if I'm a betting man I would go with the Euro as the GFS seems too progressive in this pattern
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Possible Subtropical Storm Forming off SE U.S. Coast
The 12zGFS seems to split the energy at 114hrs, none of the other models do that so either its right or its having convective feedback issues
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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