2013 EPAC Season

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supercane4867
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#261 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:49 pm

Models develop nothing after Manuel :roll:

Not even the CMC
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#262 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:51 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Models develop nothing after Manuel :roll:

Not even the CMC


I think that massive dry air is going to keep a lid on that basin

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#263 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 15, 2013 10:15 am

supercane4867 wrote:Models develop nothing after Manuel :roll:

Not even the CMC


Maybe it's shutting down for the year?
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#264 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:06 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Models develop nothing after Manuel :roll:

Not even the CMC


Maybe it's shutting down for the year?


It is possible, if there's absolutely nothing right now to indicate the development of another tropical cyclone here in at least 2 weeks, and there is an incredible amount of dry air and lack of disturbances, then I most certainly believe that this could be it, at least for September. I don't believe this Pacific hurricane season will produce any major hurricanes, simply because of 2013's hostile conditions and lack of this and that. I personally think this is the least active season here in years, concerning the ACE. Here are the statistics which make me think so:
1. No major hurricanes as of mid-September
2. No hurricanes since early August (Henriette)
3. Majority of storms are weak, especially recent ones. They rarely exceed 50 mph.

A prominent factor that tells something is not right, is that incredible mass of dry air in the basin. I don't expect much more from this season here.

The above is only my opinion of this season. It is NOT an official forecast or outlook.

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#265 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:49 am

EPAC can produce intense hurricanes well into October just this year doesn't seem to be promising at all

I think we may still get a few more hurricanes for the rest of season with nothing very strong
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#266 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:45 pm

No posts for a while! Does anybody else think the season in the Pacific is done? If so, feel free to share your thoughts on this thread. :)

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#267 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:01 pm

If the MJO shifts towards EPAC, will it somehow "clear" the dry air? When MJO pulse propagates east away from WPAC, it may do something to increase activity in the region, though there are no indications on the MJO shifting eastwards anytime soon based on model outputs.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#268 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Sep 22, 2013 1:09 am

Hurricane Manual takes the cake for the most strange tropical cyclone of 2013 thus far, completely whacked. The NHC near the end had no idea what to forecast and just did nowcasting and the ups and downs with intensity. Just odd.

hurricanes1234 wrote:No posts for a while! Does anybody else think the season in the Pacific is done? If so, feel free to share your thoughts on this thread. :)

Its done for me at least. I don't have an itch to track anything else from this dried up wasteland.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#269 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:04 am

i got an eerie feeling we might see another storm...a major hurricane...next month..
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#270 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 22, 2013 10:50 am

dexterlabio wrote:If the MJO shifts towards EPAC, will it somehow "clear" the dry air? When MJO pulse propagates east away from WPAC, it may do something to increase activity in the region, though there are no indications on the MJO shifting eastwards anytime soon based on model outputs.


Yes.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#271 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 22, 2013 10:53 am

euro6208 wrote:i got an eerie feeling we might see another storm...a major hurricane...next month..


I have a feeling we'll see a hurricane near Mexico next month. Not sure about a major.

We'll either end here or see 1 more hurricane IMO:

Which makes it either: 15/7/0 or 18/6/0
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#272 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:19 pm

18Z GFS ensemble has a disturbance from ITCZ start to develop at day 8

Image

Become a TS in fantasy range

Image

Notice something also in the western caribbean, this maybe indicative of a future MJO pulse
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#273 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:58 pm

This might be the same area south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. I do think it will form, but it most likely would be a weak TS. Wait, is it showing a westward track? Then it means we're not finished yet with those open water fishes like Gil and Henriette.

By the way, I saw the joke with "TS in the fantasy range". :P

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#274 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:52 pm

Very interesting little swirl there :cheesy:

Image

Image
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#275 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:42 am

Brought lots of rain for us today :uarrow:
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#276 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:02 pm

12Z ECMWF shows a Cat 2

Image
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#277 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:10 pm

It appears to develop from part of monsoon trough near Panama, not much going on there right now

Image
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#278 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:21 pm

I am a bit tired of these model predictions that only fizzle out when the time approaches. If this were some other season, I would have taken more notice of it, but everything so far in 2013 has been overestimated by the models, so I just see it right now as another one of those model systems that just become weak tropical storms. I am not saying that this is one of those, but conditions are very favourable at first, causing the models to predict stronger systems. Then suddenly, the system fails to develop, and/or unfavourable conditions abruptly set in. I will keep an eye on future runs, but I am certainly not going to get hyped, unless the forecast of the same Category 2 persists for up to 72 hours prior to the storm's formation. The preceding was just my opinion.

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#279 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:11 pm

Is this 92E?

It's not everyday you see the Euro forecast a Category 2 Hurricane... If all pans out, we could see our first major Hurricane.

(See personal disclaimer above)
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Re:

#280 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:33 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Is this 92E?
It's not everyday you see the Euro forecast a Category 2 Hurricane... If all pans out, we could see our first major Hurricane.

Definitely not 92E

Remember Ivo was forecasted by Euro to hit Baja as a hurricane but only became a low end TS
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