ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[drezee]

SFMR unflagged 55kts...and yes they missed the center to the SW

[CrazyC83]

SFMR unflagged 55kts...and yes they missed the center to the SW

Given the flight level winds and the small spatial reach, I would go 60 kt personally.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like shear is already affecting Karen, it will only get worse for the storm

Though if it moves in the direction of the "shear" then it may be better off all about placement with that trough.

[jlauderdal]

AJC3 was pretty close with his X at 4am.

he certainly has the qualifications to find a center if it exists

[xironman]

HURAKAN, I can agree after 36hrs the shear is going to really effect it, but given it has just gone through a boatload of land interaction and is a 55kt storm the conditions can't be that bad at the moment.

[drezee]

AJC3 was pretty close with his X at 4am.

he certainly has the qualifications to find a center if it exists

Recon just turned north in the last ob. They will likely not miss on this pass. Feedback is underway...

I hope that the obs all of a sudden stop coming....seems to happen right be the first center passes of anticipated systems...

[robbielyn]

unless trough pushes her east, looks like a mobile landing to me.

[Aric Dunn]

unless trough pushes her east, looks like a mobile landing to me.

Its looking more like panama area

[drezee]

Like clockwork the high-dense obs have stopped coming....at least they are consistent

[caneman]

I'm gonna go with Cedar Key

[stormlover2013]

we don't know where its going to hit at until they get more data and something still has form!!!! and a true LLC, EURO has been most consistent and euro has LA so until euro makes a change I won't make a change

[Aric Dunn]

1004 per recon.. extp

could be that part of the circ was over land or the the shear has increased enough in the mid levels to displace the convection. the center on the very edge of convection. ... see what happens as it moves away from land.

[caneman]

we don't know where its going to hit at until they get more data and something still has form!!!! and a true LLC, EURO has been most consistent and euro has LA so until euro makes a change I won't make a change

Huh, Euro most consistent. You are kidding right?

[Dean4Storms]

we don't know where its going to hit at until they get more data and something still has form!!!! and a true LLC, EURO has been most consistent and euro has LA so until euro makes a change I won't make a change

Wrong, just yesterday the 12z Euro had this as an open wave to the NW of the NW tip of the Yucatan. Euro failed on this one!

[stormlover2013]

it has been, just speaking the truth, just because its not saying Florida doesn't mean its wrong. Euro is like Miguel Caberra and GFS is like Hunter Pence who would you rather have in ur lineup????

[stormlover2013]

I am talking about strength I am talking about where it will make landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

1004 per recon.. extp

could be that part of the circ was over land or the the shear has increased enough in the mid levels to displace the convection. the center on the very edge of convection. ... see what happens as it moves away from land.

[Pearl River]

I posted this yesterday on the models page. This is from yesterday afternoons, 2 October NOLA AFD:

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEND MIXED MESSAGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE WAVE. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OPEN WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. THESE MODELS WERE NOT DESIGNED TO FORECAST
CYCLOGENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. HOWEVER... CAN GIVE A GOOD IDEA
OF TIMING.

[caneman]

I am talking about strength I am talking about where it will make landfall.

If it is an open wave as Euro indicated it won't be landfall. Further, it isn't an open wave.

[robbielyn]

I'm gonna go with Cedar Key

Not at the trajectory its headed on now. U r basing that on the hopes that cold front is fast and strong enough to kick it that far east and none of the reliable models are doing that. I think the farthest east it will go is appalach but i think it will be west of that. Anyways, I have plans this weekend so it cant hit us directly lol. I am an hour north of you caneman. Spring hill. But in weather anything can happen.