ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L -100% / 100% - Special Advisory shortly

#621 Postby drezee » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:15 am

SFMR unflagged 55kts...and yes they missed the center to the SW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L -100% / 100% - Special Advisory shortly

#622 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:15 am

drezee wrote:SFMR unflagged 55kts...and yes they missed the center to the SW


Given the flight level winds and the small spatial reach, I would go 60 kt personally.
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Re:

#623 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:16 am

HURAKAN wrote:Looks like shear is already affecting Karen, it will only get worse for the storm


Though if it moves in the direction of the "shear" then it may be better off all about placement with that trough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L -100% / 100% - Special Advisory shortly

#624 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:19 am

xironman wrote:AJC3 was pretty close with his X at 4am.

he certainly has the qualifications to find a center if it exists
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#625 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:20 am

HURAKAN, I can agree after 36hrs the shear is going to really effect it, but given it has just gone through a boatload of land interaction and is a 55kt storm the conditions can't be that bad at the moment.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L -100% / 100% - Special Advisory shortly

#626 Postby drezee » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:24 am

jlauderdal wrote:
xironman wrote:AJC3 was pretty close with his X at 4am.

he certainly has the qualifications to find a center if it exists

Recon just turned north in the last ob. They will likely not miss on this pass. Feedback is underway...

I hope that the obs all of a sudden stop coming....seems to happen right be the first center passes of anticipated systems...
Last edited by drezee on Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#627 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:32 am

unless trough pushes her east, looks like a mobile landing to me.
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Re:

#628 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:38 am

robbielyn wrote:unless trough pushes her east, looks like a mobile landing to me.

Its looking more like panama area
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Special Advisory for TS Karen shortly

#629 Postby drezee » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:39 am

Like clockwork the high-dense obs have stopped coming....at least they are consistent
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#630 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:45 am

I'm gonna go with Cedar Key
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Special Advisory for TS Karen shortly

#631 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:45 am

we don't know where its going to hit at until they get more data and something still has form!!!! and a true LLC, EURO has been most consistent and euro has LA so until euro makes a change I won't make a change
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#632 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:46 am

1004 per recon.. extp

could be that part of the circ was over land or the the shear has increased enough in the mid levels to displace the convection. the center on the very edge of convection. ... see what happens as it moves away from land.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Special Advisory for TS Karen shortly

#633 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:46 am

stormlover2013 wrote:we don't know where its going to hit at until they get more data and something still has form!!!! and a true LLC, EURO has been most consistent and euro has LA so until euro makes a change I won't make a change


Huh, Euro most consistent. You are kidding right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Special Advisory for TS Karen shortly

#634 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:48 am

stormlover2013 wrote:we don't know where its going to hit at until they get more data and something still has form!!!! and a true LLC, EURO has been most consistent and euro has LA so until euro makes a change I won't make a change


Wrong, just yesterday the 12z Euro had this as an open wave to the NW of the NW tip of the Yucatan. Euro failed on this one!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Special Advisory for TS Karen shortly

#635 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:49 am

it has been, just speaking the truth, just because its not saying Florida doesn't mean its wrong. Euro is like Miguel Caberra and GFS is like Hunter Pence who would you rather have in ur lineup????
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Special Advisory for TS Karen shortly

#636 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:50 am

I am talking about strength I am talking about where it will make landfall.
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Re:

#637 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:51 am

Aric Dunn wrote:1004 per recon.. extp

could be that part of the circ was over land or the the shear has increased enough in the mid levels to displace the convection. the center on the very edge of convection. ... see what happens as it moves away from land.



Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Special Advisory for TS Karen shortly

#638 Postby Pearl River » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:52 am

I posted this yesterday on the models page. This is from yesterday afternoons, 2 October NOLA AFD:

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEND MIXED MESSAGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE WAVE. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OPEN WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. THESE MODELS WERE NOT DESIGNED TO FORECAST
CYCLOGENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. HOWEVER... CAN GIVE A GOOD IDEA
OF TIMING.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Special Advisory for TS Karen shortly

#639 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:53 am

stormlover2013 wrote:I am talking about strength I am talking about where it will make landfall.


If it is an open wave as Euro indicated it won't be landfall. Further, it isn't an open wave.
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Re:

#640 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:53 am

caneman wrote:I'm gonna go with Cedar Key


Not at the trajectory its headed on now. U r basing that on the hopes that cold front is fast and strong enough to kick it that far east and none of the reliable models are doing that. I think the farthest east it will go is appalach but i think it will be west of that. Anyways, I have plans this weekend so it cant hit us directly lol. I am an hour north of you caneman. Spring hill. But in weather anything can happen.
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