ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Saved image of center exposed.

[monicaei]

Howdy from South La! How close does the front need to be to cause the storm to turn?

[xironman]

I that frame you can it finally start to wrap clouds around to the south of it. Only been back over water for about 12 hours so far. All the east convection is a sideshow.

[chaser1]

12z GFS maybe a tad stronger and into FL Panhandle near Panama City. Not backing off!

Really?? Well, maybe Aric was right and the center is starting to move more northward, thus helping to mitigate the southerly shear. Just now am seeing the beginnings of a couple small towers maybe going up near the center; will be important to see if these simply get quickly blown off or if this were the beginning of renewed convection. I'm skeptical though; we're past a point in this storms development, where this is simply a diurnal process and are now approaching a "max" period. "Convectively speaking" there's a reason Karen looks the way it does as compared to last night & into early this a.m., and it certainly isn't largely due to land interaction. Heck we've seen depressions form over the N. Yucatan before.

[deltadog03]

Well to be fair, the GFS does have this as current intensity/a bit weaker but, instead of poofing it, like euro, it strengthens it a bit and heads NE. Now, I wonder if some of the GFS strength is coming from baroclinic help…

[robbielyn]

12z GFS maybe a tad stronger and into FL Panhandle near Panama City. Not backing off!

My son has all the fun. He's from panama city.

[xironman]

When a storm moves into the Yucatan it is still able to pull moisture in from the very warm waters to the south, while just north of the Yucatan is usually a cools spot. Once north it is pulling in air that has been over land for a while. Just about every storm that I have seen traverse it in the area Karen did takes a while to get its act together.

[Aric Dunn]

Well to be fair, the GFS does have this as current intensity/a bit weaker but, instead of poofing it, like euro, it strengthens it a bit and heads NE. Now, I wonder if some of the GFS strength is coming from baroclinic help…

quiet possible.. but typically the GFS would elongate the system its not do that here.. not until after landfall..

[deltadog03]

very true Aric, it looks like its fairly symmetrical at landfall with the GFS. so another Global model duel…hmmmm ***USUALLY*** the euro wins these things, but GFS has done pretty good with the pattern lately

[wxman57]

Howdy from South La! How close does the front need to be to cause the storm to turn?

Not very. It's not the front that is going to produce the turn, it's the southwest winds aloft well in advance of the front which should turn Karen NNE-NE prior to landfall.

[chaser1]

Howdy from South La! How close does the front need to be to cause the storm to turn?

The front can still be hundreds of miles further north and west, because the storm would potentially be turning as a result of the mid level winds in the Gulf of Mexico that would be starting to steer more westerly in response to AND well ahead of the approaching front. On the other hand, if Karen weakened to a blob of rainy squalls it might not turn towards the east as soon....or even until after reaching your area. Hopefully if all that happened was getting some breezy conditions, minor beach erosion, and a risk of some minor flooding.... at least that would be far better than a strong organized storm approaching.

Simply put, the closer Karen were to try and make it to the Louisiana coast, the more likely it would be severely weakened.

[SunnyThoughts]

Howdy from South La! How close does the front need to be to cause the storm to turn?

Not very. It's not the front that is going to produce the turn, it's the southwest winds aloft well in advance of the front which should turn Karen NNE-NE prior to landfall.

Wxman, has your opinion changed any at all today? Still thinking the same as far as intensity and landfall location?

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, the cloud tops are warming and doesn't look as good on the IR compared to earlier... Structurally better and IMO Karen won't live up to the predictions...

[ROCK]

maybe the EURO, CMC, NAM, NAVGEM were on to something regarding intensity....

[Dean4Storms]

I noticed both the FIM9 and 8 both have this still more toward LA before the hook back to the NE. The FIM9 had this developing and headed toward the upper Gulf Coast back when all the other guidance was either not developing it and/or heading it for SW Florida.

[tolakram]

Now 27 good frames of the live visible loop. Motion looks to be a steady N/NW best I can tell. Recon will be there shortly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-88&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=27

[Steve]

Meanwhile, outer band is showing up off the N Gulf Coast. Should be squalls for all concerned over the next couple of days.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

[Airboy]

Looks like some convection is forming near the center again

[Dean4Storms]

Recon again on its way!

[tolakram]

Analyzed shear has dropped a great deal from this morning.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=