BigB0882 wrote:No one is questioning that this will eventually go East. The question is WHEN.
The turn is always the question when they get into the northern GOM. Plus I wanted to make my 500th post

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BigB0882 wrote:No one is questioning that this will eventually go East. The question is WHEN.
bella_may wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:Folks, it is going to wobble some going around the ridge. Overall motion is still 330 or NNW.
Just glanced at all 20 members of 18z GFS Ensemble, only one Member has this landfalling anywhere but Alabama and Florida and that Member takes it in way over in central LA.
I just cannot ignore the GFS which has been pretty accurate and consistent with this so far nor its 19 members of its ensemble run.
The gfs has been the eastern outlier the whole time. I wouldn't put all my stock into one model.
robbielyn wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
this watervapor image explains whats really influencing Karen and why it will go east gatorcane is right
stormlover2013 wrote:Gfs got lucky!!! A model gets lucky every once in a while
monicaei wrote:Where do you find those microwave images that "play"? I'm sorry if this question isn't worded properly, I have no idea what the technical term for that is...
brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.
This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.
monicaei wrote:Where do you find those microwave images that "play"? I'm sorry if this question isn't worded properly, I have no idea what the technical term for that is...
brunota2003 wrote:monicaei wrote:Where do you find those microwave images that "play"? I'm sorry if this question isn't worded properly, I have no idea what the technical term for that is...
You are talking about the MIMIC-TC loops, which can be found here:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml
monicaei wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.
This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.
Let's say you have a house or boat in "I guess it is Grand Isle, La"... What kind of surge are we talking about...
brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.
This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.
T-man wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.
This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.
Lol, you guys crack me up. If it clips Grand Isle, that's a landfall...duh
monicaei wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.
This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.
Let's say you have a house or boat in "I guess it is Grand Isle, La"... What kind of surge are we talking about...
brunota2003 wrote:T-man wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.
This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.
Lol, you guys crack me up. If it clips Grand Isle, that's a landfall...duh
I guess I should say "final landfall". Yes, it if directly hits GI it would be classified as a landfall, but some are staying just offshore of GI, not making landfall.
LaBreeze wrote:monicaei wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.
This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.
Let's say you have a house or boat in "I guess it is Grand Isle, La"... What kind of surge are we talking about...
I thought it was always called, "Grand Isle, LA".
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