ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re:

#981 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:57 pm

BigB0882 wrote:No one is questioning that this will eventually go East. The question is WHEN.


The turn is always the question when they get into the northern GOM. Plus I wanted to make my 500th post :D
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#982 Postby MGC » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:58 pm

Yes, the big question is when is it going to make the turn?.....MGC
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Re: Re:

#983 Postby northtxboy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:58 pm

bella_may wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Folks, it is going to wobble some going around the ridge. Overall motion is still 330 or NNW.

Just glanced at all 20 members of 18z GFS Ensemble, only one Member has this landfalling anywhere but Alabama and Florida and that Member takes it in way over in central LA.

I just cannot ignore the GFS which has been pretty accurate and consistent with this so far nor its 19 members of its ensemble run.


The gfs has been the eastern outlier the whole time. I wouldn't put all my stock into one model.

The gfs was right about debbie in 2012. gfs was all alone showing a florida landfall. even the nhc was fooled
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Re:

#984 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:00 pm

robbielyn wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
this watervapor image explains whats really influencing Karen and why it will go east gatorcane is right

this system is now far enough west of peninsular florida that it could deviate quite a bit to the east of the official forecast track and still not have an appreciable impact on that region. that is quite a change from the initial discussion of a tropical storm coming to southwest florida or up the west coast. over time the threat to our region has diminished to the point that we now have a pretty solid margin of safety (not that i'd be fearing this one anyway).

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#985 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:00 pm

Gfs got lucky!!! A model gets lucky every once in a while
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#986 Postby monicaei » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:01 pm

Where do you find those microwave images that "play"? I'm sorry if this question isn't worded properly, I have no idea what the technical term for that is...
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#987 Postby lester » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:02 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Gfs got lucky!!! A model gets lucky every once in a while


the gfs isn't as bad as it used to be, you could say it's as good as the euro at this point.
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#988 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:02 pm

Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.

This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.
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Re:

#989 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:04 pm

monicaei wrote:Where do you find those microwave images that "play"? I'm sorry if this question isn't worded properly, I have no idea what the technical term for that is...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html
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Re:

#990 Postby monicaei » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:04 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.

This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.


Let's say you have a house or boat in "I guess it is Grand Isle, La"... What kind of surge are we talking about... :double:
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Re:

#991 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:08 pm

monicaei wrote:Where do you find those microwave images that "play"? I'm sorry if this question isn't worded properly, I have no idea what the technical term for that is...

You are talking about the MIMIC-TC loops, which can be found here:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml :)
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Re: Re:

#992 Postby monicaei » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:09 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
monicaei wrote:Where do you find those microwave images that "play"? I'm sorry if this question isn't worded properly, I have no idea what the technical term for that is...

You are talking about the MIMIC-TC loops, which can be found here:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml :)


Yes! Thanks!!!!
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Re: Re:

#993 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:10 pm

monicaei wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.

This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.


Let's say you have a house or boat in "I guess it is Grand Isle, La"... What kind of surge are we talking about... :double:

This is what the NHC is saying about surge:

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT
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Re:

#994 Postby T-man » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:11 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.

This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.

Lol, you guys crack me up. If it clips Grand Isle, that's a landfall...duh
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#995 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:13 pm

will South Florida see any rain from Karen?
Last edited by HurricaneTracker2031 on Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#996 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:14 pm

T-man wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.

This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.

Lol, you guys crack me up. If it clips Grand Isle, that's a landfall...duh

I guess I should say "final landfall". Yes, it if directly hits GI it would be classified as a landfall, but some are staying just offshore of GI, not making landfall.
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Re: Re:

#997 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:15 pm

monicaei wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.

This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.


Let's say you have a house or boat in "I guess it is Grand Isle, La"... What kind of surge are we talking about... :double:

I thought it was always called, "Grand Isle, LA".
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Re: Re:

#998 Postby monicaei » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:15 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
T-man wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.

This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.

Lol, you guys crack me up. If it clips Grand Isle, that's a landfall...duh

I guess I should say "final landfall". Yes, it if directly hits GI it would be classified as a landfall, but some are staying just offshore of GI, not making landfall.


Will the angle of it "raking" GI and then turning affect the surge we would see?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#999 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:18 pm

Come on t-man, you know plaquemines parish ain't land. Lol
Tim
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Re: Re:

#1000 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:18 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
monicaei wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Everything right now is pointing toward a landfall either directly over or very close to Gulf Shores, AL...after clipping I guess it is Grand Isle, LA.

This is NOT official, this is just my opinions based off of the consensus models.


Let's say you have a house or boat in "I guess it is Grand Isle, La"... What kind of surge are we talking about... :double:

I thought it was always called, "Grand Isle, LA".

Sorry, I'm not from around there, so I'm not familiar with what exactly is what.
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