2013 EPAC Season

[South Texas Storms]

12Z ECMWF

Not a bad 7 day forecast from the Euro!

[supercane4867]

986mb hurricane

[hurricanes1234]

Sure. Wait until the next run lowers it. If it is not lowered or dropped in a few days, then I'll believe it. Other than that, it's just more and more model predictions in my opinion.

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[supercane4867]

Sure. Wait until the next run lowers it. If it is not lowered or dropped in a few days, then I'll believe it. Other than that, it's just more and more model predictions in my opinion.

Actually there is good model agreement on this one, both ECMWF and CMC show the storm as well

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

Let's see if this develops into a hurricane. Waiting on the next model run.....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's becoming increasingly likely that the area of disturbed weather being monitored by the National Hurricane Center is not only going to develop, but potentially become a significant tropical cyclone. Wind shear is forecast to remain low for the foreseeable future and a robust MJO signal is entering the East Pacific.

One last hurrah.

[hurricanes1234]

It's becoming increasingly likely that the area of disturbed weather being monitored by the National Hurricane Center is not only going to develop, but potentially become a significant tropical cyclone. Wind shear is forecast to remain low for the foreseeable future and a robust MJO signal is entering the East Pacific.

One last hurrah.

MJO and TC simultaneously! Let's test EPAC once again.

[Yellow Evan]

Spooky

[supercane4867]

GFS seems to be overhyping the MJO pulse lol

[Yellow Evan]

GFS seems to be overhyping the MJO pulse lol

I thought it's both an MJO and a Kevlin wave coming at the same time.

[dexterlabio]

If both GFS and Euro are showing it, they might be onto something. I also thought GFS was way overdoing the MJO pulse in WPAC after the dead first half of the year, but look how many intense tropical cyclones have emerged since September. Let's see if it will be the same in EPAC.

[hurricanes1234]

If both GFS and Euro are showing it, they might be onto something. I also thought GFS was way overdoing the MJO pulse in WPAC after the dead first half of the year, but look how many intense tropical cyclones have emerged since September. Let's see if it will be the same in EPAC.

MJO will likely enhance EPAC activity, but nowhere near the hyperactivity going on in the WPAC right now. It's already affecting EPAC, Raymond is now 50 mph and destined to become a hurricane, having strengthened by 15 mph in twelve hours. Its forecasted peak is 85 mph. There's an area of convection to the southeast of Raymond, which in my opinion, has improved this morning. MJO already came to EPAC this year, but it didn't affect the ACE much, just the count. So I think we do have a chance at meeting the S or T storms, and if we do reach T, it would be the first time in several years. And I've read something about a Kelvin-wave, which is helping MJO to increase activity. This might just be our second peak of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

If both GFS and Euro are showing it, they might be onto something. I also thought GFS was way overdoing the MJO pulse in WPAC after the dead first half of the year, but look how many intense tropical cyclones have emerged since September. Let's see if it will be the same in EPAC.

MJO will likely enhance EPAC activity, but nowhere near the hyperactivity going on in the WPAC right now. It's already affecting EPAC, Raymond is now 50 mph and destined to become a hurricane, having strengthened by 15 mph in twelve hours. Its forecasted peak is 85 mph. There's an area of convection to the southeast of Raymond, which in my opinion, has improved this morning. MJO already came to EPAC this year, but it didn't affect the ACE much, just the count. So I think we do have a chance at meeting the S or T storms, and if we do reach T, it would be the first time in several years. And I've read something about a Kelvin-wave, which is helping MJO to increase activity. This might just be our second peak of the season.

"T" would be the most number of storms since 1992. Thats almost equivalent to a Greek season in the ATL (counting Pews and Unala). We won't see the current level of WPAC activity, that basin is at its peak, the EPAC is months past its prime. But, the MJO pulse is doing wonders for the SPAC as well, which have 1F and 2F about 10 days prior to the strart of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

Sonia near Baja. Amazing for November.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Sonia near Baja. Amazing for November.

OMG LORENZO :O

[Yellow Evan]

Sonia near Baja. Amazing for November.

OMG LORENZO :O

It's the long range. And that storm is affecting land, so it's not good to root for it form.

[hurricanes1234]

I see the MJO has already contributed to the formation and rapid deepening of Hurricane Raymond. How long does the MJO look to last?

[Yellow Evan]

Not too long AFAIK. Season is on the decline at this time of year, peaking about 2-3 months ago. So, I doubt we'll get storm #20 to tie 2009 for the most active dead storm era season (1995-).

[Yellow Evan]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.