2013 EPAC Season

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South Texas Storms
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#301 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Oct 14, 2013 3:11 pm

supercane4867 wrote:12Z ECMWF

Image


:uarrow:
Not a bad 7 day forecast from the Euro!
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#302 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:08 pm

986mb hurricane

Image
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#303 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:29 pm

Sure. Wait until the next run lowers it. If it is not lowered or dropped in a few days, then I'll believe it. Other than that, it's just more and more model predictions in my opinion.

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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#304 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:32 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Sure. Wait until the next run lowers it. If it is not lowered or dropped in a few days, then I'll believe it. Other than that, it's just more and more model predictions in my opinion.

Actually there is good model agreement on this one, both ECMWF and CMC show the storm as well
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#305 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:41 pm

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#306 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 16, 2013 1:29 pm

Let's see if this develops into a hurricane. Waiting on the next model run.....
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#307 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Oct 17, 2013 4:16 pm

It's becoming increasingly likely that the area of disturbed weather being monitored by the National Hurricane Center is not only going to develop, but potentially become a significant tropical cyclone. Wind shear is forecast to remain low for the foreseeable future and a robust MJO signal is entering the East Pacific.

One last hurrah.
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Re:

#308 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:36 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:It's becoming increasingly likely that the area of disturbed weather being monitored by the National Hurricane Center is not only going to develop, but potentially become a significant tropical cyclone. Wind shear is forecast to remain low for the foreseeable future and a robust MJO signal is entering the East Pacific.

One last hurrah.



MJO and TC simultaneously! Let's test EPAC once again.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#309 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 19, 2013 1:13 pm

Image

Spooky
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#310 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 1:18 pm

GFS seems to be overhyping the MJO pulse lol
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#311 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 19, 2013 1:30 pm

supercane4867 wrote:GFS seems to be overhyping the MJO pulse lol


I thought it's both an MJO and a Kevlin wave coming at the same time.
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#312 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:53 pm

If both GFS and Euro are showing it, they might be onto something. I also thought GFS was way overdoing the MJO pulse in WPAC after the dead first half of the year, but look how many intense tropical cyclones have emerged since September. Let's see if it will be the same in EPAC.
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Re:

#313 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:28 am

dexterlabio wrote:If both GFS and Euro are showing it, they might be onto something. I also thought GFS was way overdoing the MJO pulse in WPAC after the dead first half of the year, but look how many intense tropical cyclones have emerged since September. Let's see if it will be the same in EPAC.



MJO will likely enhance EPAC activity, but nowhere near the hyperactivity going on in the WPAC right now. It's already affecting EPAC, Raymond is now 50 mph and destined to become a hurricane, having strengthened by 15 mph in twelve hours. Its forecasted peak is 85 mph. There's an area of convection to the southeast of Raymond, which in my opinion, has improved this morning. MJO already came to EPAC this year, but it didn't affect the ACE much, just the count. So I think we do have a chance at meeting the S or T storms, and if we do reach T, it would be the first time in several years. And I've read something about a Kelvin-wave, which is helping MJO to increase activity. This might just be our second peak of the season.
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Re: Re:

#314 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 20, 2013 2:11 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:If both GFS and Euro are showing it, they might be onto something. I also thought GFS was way overdoing the MJO pulse in WPAC after the dead first half of the year, but look how many intense tropical cyclones have emerged since September. Let's see if it will be the same in EPAC.



MJO will likely enhance EPAC activity, but nowhere near the hyperactivity going on in the WPAC right now. It's already affecting EPAC, Raymond is now 50 mph and destined to become a hurricane, having strengthened by 15 mph in twelve hours. Its forecasted peak is 85 mph. There's an area of convection to the southeast of Raymond, which in my opinion, has improved this morning. MJO already came to EPAC this year, but it didn't affect the ACE much, just the count. So I think we do have a chance at meeting the S or T storms, and if we do reach T, it would be the first time in several years. And I've read something about a Kelvin-wave, which is helping MJO to increase activity. This might just be our second peak of the season.


"T" would be the most number of storms since 1992. Thats almost equivalent to a Greek season in the ATL (counting Pews and Unala). We won't see the current level of WPAC activity, that basin is at its peak, the EPAC is months past its prime. But, the MJO pulse is doing wonders for the SPAC as well, which have 1F and 2F about 10 days prior to the strart of the season.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#315 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 20, 2013 7:09 pm

Image

Sonia near Baja. Amazing for November.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#316 Postby RainbowAppleJackDash » Sun Oct 20, 2013 7:11 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Image

Sonia near Baja. Amazing for November.

OMG LORENZO :O
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#317 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 20, 2013 7:22 pm

RainbowAppleJackDash wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Image

Sonia near Baja. Amazing for November.

OMG LORENZO :O


It's the long range. And that storm is affecting land, so it's not good to root for it form.
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Re: 2013 EPAC Season

#318 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:20 pm

I see the MJO has already contributed to the formation and rapid deepening of Hurricane Raymond. How long does the MJO look to last?
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#319 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:51 pm

Not too long AFAIK. Season is on the decline at this time of year, peaking about 2-3 months ago. So, I doubt we'll get storm #20 to tie 2009 for the most active dead storm era season (1995-).
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#320 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:34 pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
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