Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST MON NOV 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
CNTRL CARIB WILL SHIFT WEST AND AMPLIFY NWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WED. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL CARIB WILL MAINTAIN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW THROUGH TUE WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS WRN/SWRN PR. ON WED...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA AS AMPLIFLYING/DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC EAST OF 60W SWINGS BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN WATER VAPOR CONTENT AND GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RISK OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING WITH EACH DAY. WITH THE MJO
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EWD INTO AFRICA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN...THE
REST OF NOV LOOKS TO HAVE DRIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL. IT APPEARS
NOW THAT WE`LL BE ENTERING OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL DRY SEASON VERY SOON
AND ALSO OUR WINTER SWELL SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA DISSIPATING AFTER 04/22Z ACROSS PR WITH PASSING
SHRA ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK. SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS TJSJ...USVI...AND TNCM/TKPK. SFC WIND
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY...VARIABLE NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH MIDDAY WED. NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT ATLC COASTAL WATERS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WED NIGHT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 40 40 40 40

[Macrocane]

We finally got the first cold surge of the season, yesterday we had weak northerly winds and this morning the temperatures were cooler. The first cold surge usually arrives to Central America in the 3rd or 4th week of October but this year it didn't happen.

The latest HPC discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EST MON NOV 04 2013

DISCUSSION FROM NOVEMBER 04/00UTC: MEXICO WILL STILL BE AFFECTED
BY RAPIDLY WEAKENING REMNANT CONVECTION OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM
SONIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION AND RAINFALL ACROSS
SINALOA/NAYARIT INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE CYCLE.
SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS
GUERRERO/MICHOACAN. RETROGRESSING TUTT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
DAY 03 TO ENHANCE CONVECTION LOCALLY ACROSS
MICHOACAN-JALISCO-COLIMA INTO AGUASCALIENTES. RETROGRESSING TUTT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND YUCATAN EARLY IN THE CYCLE....EXTENDING INTO CHIAPAS
AND GUATEMALA. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ACROSS JALISCO/COLIMA/NAYARIT. TO THE
EAST...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
ACROSS EASTERN YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ON DAY 02
EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS/EASTERN YUCATAN AMOUNTS ARE TO DECREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON DAY 03...EXPECTING HEAVIEST
OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN WITH MAXIMA INCREASING TO 20-30MM.
PRE-FRONTAL/SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ONCE AGAIN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO PRODUCING AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM.

SEASONALLY QUIET PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY ESTABLISHES. THIS WILL LIMIT
MOST WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF
CHIAPAS/GUATEMALA (SEE ABOVE) AND COSTA RICA. IN COSTA
RICA...EXPECTING AMOUNTS IN THE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DAY 02.

TO THE EAST...FOCUS OF CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED INTO THE GREATER
ANTILLES...BAHAMAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. TUTT IS RETROGRESSING
WHILE NOW CENTERING JUST SOUTH OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD IN CUBA. A
MID-UPPER RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
INTO HAITI. THIS PATTERN IS VENTILATING CONVECTION IN SEVERAL
REGIONS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE...AND IN THE
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. MOISTURE POOL AND VENTILATION WILL INTERACT
WITH SURFACE FEATURES TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. A
REMARKABLE FEATURE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. BY 24
HRS THE SHEAR LINE WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS/JAMAICA. BY 48 HRS IT WILL
START WEAKENING IN ITS SAME POSITION. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...ON DAY 01 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EXPECTING SIMILAR
AMOUNTS WITH MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ON DAY 02...AMOUNTS ARE TO
DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS...WHILE ACROSS CUBA/CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
JAMAICA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON DAY
03...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
WITH AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA 20-30MM.

ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...QUIET PATTERN IS
ESTABLISHING/WILL PREVAIL. MOST CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT IN HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POOL AND UPPER VENTILATION
WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
DAY 03 IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH.
ON DAY 01...HEAVIEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
WITH AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY 02...IN A DECREASING TREND. ON
DAY 03...EXPECTING MAXIMA TO DECREASE TO 15-20MM AS FOCUS OF MOST
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MIGRATES TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA...MOST ACTIVE IS ESTABLISHING ACROSS CENTRAL
COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN. THIS IS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE CYCLE. FURTHER NORTHEAST...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA INTO THE GUIANAS THROUGH MID-CYCLE.
TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS DAY 03...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AMAZON/ORINOQUIA
INTO THE GUIANAS. ON DAYS 01 AND 02...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA TO PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. TO THE EAST EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON DAY
03 EXPECTING A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE GUIANAS/ORINOQUIA TO
PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. COLOMBIA IS ALSO EXPECTING AN
ACTIVATION ON DAY 03...WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
45W 48W 51W 55W 58W 61W 65W 67W TUTT INDCD

A TUTT INDUCED WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 45W. THIS WAVE WILL
PROPAGATE WESTWARD IN UNISON WITH THE TUTT TO ENHANCE
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA BY LATE CYCLE.

MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
DA SILVA...CHN (BRASIL)
FEARON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Only a few showers are expected today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST TUE NOV 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CUBA
WILL ROTATE AROUND BEHIND THE WAVE TO MAINTAIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA BUT
THE SHORT WAVE WILL STILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST
MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND BLEND INTO THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW
THERE. WHEN THE TROUGHINESS TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXTINGUISHED ON
SUNDAY BY A MIGRATING HIGH PRESSURE LOCAL TRADE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DECAYED INTO RAIN AS
THEY MOVED ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY 2 AM AST MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY IN THE ATLANTIC...HAD DISSIPATED AND
ONLY A FEW MINOR SHOWERS REMAINED NEAR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...SAINT
JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT OVER THE AREA BUT
STABILITY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AND WILL SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO OWING TO THE
LIGHT BUT MOIST FLOW AROUND A BROAD LOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND MERGES INTO THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...SHOWER ACTIVITY HERE WILL DIMINISH. THE GFS
SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE AT 700 MB MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE AREA FOR THAT IN
AN AMENDED ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 05/18Z AND 05/20Z SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJMZ...RESULTING IN PDS OF MVFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE VRB AND
LIGHT...BCMG MORE EASTERLY AFT 05/13Z BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK GRADIENTS AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
TIGHTEN AS TRADE WINDS RESUME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 7 FEET
BY THURSDAY AS SWELL ARRIVES FROM NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE
HIGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 86 75 / 20 20 30 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST TUE NOV 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO ERODE AS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... REGION
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND OVER TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE BROAD SURFACE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW SHORT LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...WITH
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE BRIEF...
BUT SOME WERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AND LEAD TO QUICK
RISE IN SOME RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY
STEER WEST SOUTHWEST UNDER THE PRESENT WIND FLOW. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS TO DIMINISH OVER LAND AFTER SUNSET LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUD SKIES. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS AN GFS
MODEL FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDING...BOTH SUGGEST A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN LAYERED
PRECIPITABLE WATER. HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY...EXCEPT FOR
WEDNESDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
BY FRIDAY AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN SIGHT FOR NOW...EXCEPT FOR PASSING EARLY MORNING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THE GENERAL
WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BE EAST TO NORTHEAST...
THEREFORE THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED AND MOTION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE WIND FLOW DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH CASH LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 05/22Z. TJPS...TJSJ...AND
TJMZ MAY OBSERVE SOME SHRA BEFORE THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS PR AND EAST SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE USVI AS WELL AS
TKPK/TNCM OVERNIGHT. ISOLD/SCOT SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
EARLY THURSDAY...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 7 FEET BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 74 86 / 20 30 20 20
STT 77 87 77 86 / 40 40 30 30

[Macrocane]

Latest HPC discussion

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EST TUE NOV 05 2013

DISCUSSION FROM NOVEMBER 05/00UTC: QUIET PATTERN IS ESTABLISHING
IN MEXICO. MOST ACTIVE WILL REMAIN ALONG COLD FRONT/NORTES EVENT
TO AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS. THIS EVENT WILL...HOWEVER...BE
MUCH WEAKER THAN EVENTS SEEN DURING PREVIOUS WEEKS. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLIES WILL DEVELOP IN TAMAULIPAS BY 48 HRS AND THEN
ALONG MOST OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. SPEEDS WILL PEAK AT
15-20KT...WITH ISOLATED REGIONS OF 20-25KT. BY DAY 02...LOCAL
OROGRAPHICAL EFFECT WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ALONG COASTAL REGIONS...SHEAR LINE WILL
PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ON DAY 03...LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG VERACRUZ WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING EASTERN YUCATAN AND
GUATEMALA/BELIZE UNDER INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING TUTTS. UPPER
FORCING IS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE CYCLE. YET...A[b] WAVE IN THE
EASTERLIES DEVELOPING FROM CURRENT BROAD SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
TO SUSTAIN ACTIVE PATTERN IN YUCATAN THROUGH THE CYCLE...AND IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON DAY 03. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON DAY 02 EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO
INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ON DAY 03...A NEW
SHEAR LINE WILL INTERACT WITH TROUGH IN THE TRADES TO PRODUCE
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA UNDER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF DISORGANIZED ITCZ.
ARRIVING TROUGH IN THE TRADES WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE CYCLE. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN PANAMA TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. ON DAY 02 EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN MAXIMA TO 25-50MM. ON DAY 03 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM EXTENDING INTO
NICARAGUA/SOUTHERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR.

MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE BASIN LIES NEAR CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS REGION IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF FORMIDABLE UPPER
VENTILATION BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA...AND
THE BASE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT LOW-LEVELS A
WEAKENING SHEAR LINE IS ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER MOST
OF EASTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES ARE ALSO ENHANCING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN CUBA.
THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ON DAY 01. MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
TO START STRENGTHENING AND EXPAND TO THE SOUTH. AS IT
STRENGTHENS...INVERSION IS TO CONTINUE BUILDING AND WINDS
STRENGTHENING. THE LATTER WILL ALSO HELP TO ADVECT DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECTING A RAPID DECREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION. ON DAY 02 STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL ALREADY HAVE CLEARED
THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA POSING A CHANCE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION IN WESTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS. BY DAY 03
THE STABLE AIR MASS WILL EXPAND TO THE WEST LIMITING STRONGEST
CONVECTION TO WESTERNMOST CUBA. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING AMOUNTS
PEAKING AT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS JAMAICA...CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF CUBA EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON DAY 02 EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. ON DAY 03...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA/CAYMAN
ISLANDS WITH MAXIMA PEAKING AT 15-20MM/DAY.

TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DRYING PATTERN IS TO
DEVELOP. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON DAY 01 ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO. HERE...DEEP MOISTURE POOL REMAINS. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
NORTH. EXPECTING A DECREASE STARTING ON DAY 02...AS DRY AIR MASS
ESTABLISHES IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST. A MORE MARKED DECREASE IS EXPECTED ON DAY
03...WITH INVERSION ESTABLISHING INTO THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES.
UNDER THIS PATTERN EXPECTING MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION. ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL BE AIDED BY UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LEEWARDS AND FRENCH ANTILLES ON DAY 02...AND ISOLATED STORMS IN
BARBADOS/WINDWARDS ON DAY 03. NEXT DEEP MOISTURE SURGE IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...YET IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
CONSTRAINED INTO AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF GRENADA/TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO...AS THE ITCZ IS RETREATING SOUTHWARD. ON DAY 01 EXPECTING
LARGEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WITH MAXIMA
PEAKING AT 20-40MM/DAY. ON DAY 02 MOST ACTIVE WILL CONSTRAIN TO
PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMA DECREASING TO
15-30MM. DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON DAY 03.

NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA HAS ACTIVATED. WIDESPREAD DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS BEING FAVORED ACROSS COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CYCLE AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING ACTIVE CONVECTION TO PEAK ON
DAY 03 AFFECTING MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF
COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN ECUADOR. THROUGH DAY 02
EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM
NORTHERN ECUADOR INTO THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION. AMOUNTS ARE TO
INCREASE ON DAY 03 TO MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FURTHER EAST...EXPECTING
ALSO A GRADUAL INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY ON DAY 03 TO
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
50W 53W 56W 59W 62W 64W 66W 69W TUTT INDCD
29W 32W 35W 38W 41W 44W 47W 50W TW

A TUTT INDUCED WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 50W. THIS WAVE WILL
PROPAGATE WESTWARD IN UNISON WITH THE TUTT...AND THEN DETACH...TO
ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA BY LATE CYCLE.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AT 29W IS ONLY BEING CAPTURED BY THE ECMWF
MODEL. THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE BASIN BY 96 HRS TO MODULATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GUIANAS.

MILLER...CINWS (CAYMAN ISLANDS)
DA SILVA...CHN (BRASIL)
FEARON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST TUE NOV 5 2013

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT MAINLY OVER THE REGIONAL
WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND USVI.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A DECREASING TREND IN MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING TO PRODUCE ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail in PR and VI for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST WED NOV 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED VIEQUES
AD CULEBRA...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MINIMAL. REST OF PUERTO RICO
WAS RAIN FREE. MEANWHILE...OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED. SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AT LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE TO DOMINATES TODAY...WHICH COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PROMISE TO MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONDITIONS WILL GET A LITTLE DRIER DURING THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DIMINISH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION.
IN THE LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE REGIONAL WATERS BTWN PR AND USVI THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING. PASSING SHRA ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06/14Z. THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WEST PORTIONS OF PR...PRODUCING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS.
LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FM THE SE AT 5-10 KT BLO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE OUR LOCAL WATERS TONGIHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET MAINLY OVER THE
OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ALTANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6
FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 76 87 77 / 50 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST WED NOV 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IS PASSING OVER ISLANDS ON ITS WAY
SOUTH. EXPECT ROBUST CONVECTION OVER PR INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO RAINING ITSELF OUT
AND DUE TO THE APPROACHING CONVERGENT FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS.
AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE IS NOT YET DROPPING BUT IT WILL
TONIGHT AS THE NORTH FLOW DEEPENS.

MODIFICATIONS MADE TO GRIDS WERE RELATIVE MINOR. DRY ADVECTION TO
BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. RESULTANT CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY
06/23Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
ISOLD TO SCT PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS PR OVERNIGHT WITH TIST.TISX AND TNCM/TKPK HAVING
WINDS FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 CURRENTLY SHOWING 8.9 FT WHICH IS ALMOST 3 FT
HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD BE. BELIEVE THE SUDDEN RISE
IS DUE TO SEVERAL OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BUOY...WITH LOCAL SWELLS ARRIVING WELL AHEAD OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ON VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGES. IF THIS
IS TRUE THEN THE BUOY WILL SOON RETURN TO AROUND 6-7 FT AND MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE MODERATE SWELLS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE RISES WELL AT BUOY 41046.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 87 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 87 77 87 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU NOV 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN U.S...WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL DIG SOUTH NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND SATELITE IMAGES WERE SHOWING
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS BRUSHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. MOST AREAS REMAINED RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT. DRIER
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES DURING THE WEEKEND...COMPARED TO VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES
OBSERVED LAST TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR AT MID LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THESE FACTORS
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...DUE TO ITS
LOCATION...NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 07/17Z
AND 07/21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM THE E TO SE AT 5-10 KT BLO
FL100.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE ISLANDS. BUOY 41115 LOCATED NEAR RINCON...SHOWED NORTH SWELLS
AT 8 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. MEANWHILE...BUOY 41053 IN SAN JUAN SHOWED
SEAS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 6 TO 7 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 11 TO 12
SECONDS. DUE TO THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 75 87 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU NOV 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DIG DOWN TOMORROW
BUT START TO LIFT EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY...IT IS
STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
EXPECTED TREND IS FOR THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO CONTINUE
DECREASING SLIGHTLY BUT TO LEVEL OFF AT AROUND 1.6 INCHES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF 1.5 INCHES OR LESS.

ANYWAY IT IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR PASSING SHOWERS IN THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH A FEW DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOONS ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER AT LEAST TIL 07/23Z...PASSING SHRA AND
PSBL ISOLD -TSRA MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MTN TOP
OBSCR MAINLY ACROSS WEST INTERIOR AND SRN SLOPES OF PR. LLVL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FM THE E AT 5-15 KT BLO FL150...BCMG NE AND INCR W/HT
ABV WITH MAX WND OF 35-40 KTS NR FL350. NO SIG OPERATIONAL FLIGHT WX
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL HAS INVADED THE LOCAL WATERS AND SEAS
ARE NOW UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS MEASURED BY THE
SAN JUAN BUOY 41053 WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 11 TO 13 SECONDS. A
NOWCAST WAS ISSUED BECAUSE OF BRIEF MOMENTS WITH BREAKING WAVES
CLOSE TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO START SUBSIDING SLOWLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 76 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST THU NOV 7 2013

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MINIMAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MOVES
FARTHER FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE EACH DAY WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH VCSH POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST AND ISX OVERNIGHT. AFT
08/16Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND MAY AFFECT JPS AND JMZ BTW 08/16 AND 08/21Z...RESULTING IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FM THE ESE AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SEAS ARE NOW UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
MEASURED BY THE SAN JUAN BUOY 41053 WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 11 TO 13
SECONDS. A NOWCAST WAS ISSUED BECAUSE OF BRIEF MOMENTS WITH BREAKING
WAVES CLOSE TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO START SUBSIDING SLOWLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A mainly good weekend weatherwise is expected in PR and VI with only a few isolated showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST FRI NOV 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. MOST AREA REMAINED DRY WITH NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. MOISTURE IS IN A DECREASING TREND...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS TROUGH IS NOT IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE...LITTLE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 08/17Z
AND 08/21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM THE E TO SE AT 5-10 KT BLO
FL100.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET AND WINDS AROUND
15 KNOTS OR LESS...AS A NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL THIS EVENING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 86 76 87 78 / 30 30 30 30

[HurricaneFan]

What about the convection between 55 and 45w,is that a Wave and will it reach the Islands?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST FRI NOV 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT BY SUNDAY...GIVING WAY TO AN UPPER
RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY
FROM THE EAST AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST OF
THE U.S. AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...WESTERN INTERIOR AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS EVEN MADE IT TO THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA BUT ACCUMULATIONS WERE ONLY HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH AT THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE 08/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECREASED TO UNDER 1.7 INCHES AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL GO DOWN A BIT MORE FOR SATURDAY...IN THE
1.5 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...A BIT HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
FOR WESTERN PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR. THE REST OF
THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD OBSERVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NR
LEEWARDS WITH TEMPO SCT-BKN CLD LYR BTW FL020-FL070. LLVL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FM THE E AT 5-15 KT BLO FL150 BCMG FM N AND INCR W/HT TO
15-25 KTS ABV AND UP TO FL350.NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL IS SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND SEAS IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ARE NOW UNDER 7 FEET. THE SAN JUAN BUOY IS
REPORTING SEAS NOW AROUND 6 FEET AS WELL AS THE RINCON BUOY. SEAS
OF UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
LOCAL PASSAGES UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERLY SWELL
SLOWLY SUBSIDES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 77 88 78 88 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

What about the convection between 55 and 45w,is that a Wave and will it reach the Islands?

It looks like it will not come to the Eastern Caribbean islands.That is a mid to upper trough.

[cycloneye]

October Climate Report for Puerto Rico/USVI

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=oct2013cr


Monthly Summary

Overall, October 2013 can be described as a dry and hot month with precipitation deficits and above normal temperatures across much of the local islands. Locally induced shower and thunderstorm activity were noted across western portions of Puerto Rico most of October’s afternoons. In fact, the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico was the only area with normal to above normal rainfall totals. A few weak tropical waves/easterly disturbances were noted across the area this month, but with minimal associated rainfall totals.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail this weekend in PR and VI with only a few isolated showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST SAT NOV 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A
FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALONG WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE U.S. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED PATCHES
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LEAVING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THIS MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION. THIS
RELATIVE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENT AT
MID-UPPER LEVEL WILL RESULT IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT SHALLOW CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE IN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FEW BANDS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BUT OVERALL...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE FORESEEN IN NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER TIST..TISX...TJSJ...TNCM...AND TKPK. SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AFTER 09/18Z OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
OF U.S. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS OF 3-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MARINE GUIDANCE
ARE SUGGESTING A SMALL NORTH SWELL ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 77 / 20 30 30 20
STT 87 77 87 78 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SAT NOV 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST...BUT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS WILL
DRIFT EAST TO A POSITION NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
AND RETURN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THEN WEAKEN AGAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING THE
WEEK. AFTER THE TROUGH EJECTS A LOW LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...LEFT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM VILLALBA WEST.
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO RECEIVED SOME RAIN EXCEPT FOR A
STRIP ALONG THE COAST ABOUT 3 TO 4 MILES WIDE. UP TO NOW THUNDER
HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED...BUT ONE TOP WAS OBSERVED TO 42 KFT.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW TONIGHT
YIELDING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO. LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK WILL OCCUR AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPARSE. HOWEVER A WEAK
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SHOWERS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER TJMZ AND TJPS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH 09/23Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT MARINERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN OUTER
WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET IN EXPOSED WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 86 / 40 40 40 40
STT 77 87 79 88 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
942 PM AST SAT NOV 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TEMPORARILY THROUGH
MON THEN REBUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUE. SFC TROUGH ALONG 55W WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS
TROUGH ALOFT PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TONIGHT THRU MON WITH
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER WRN AND NWRN PR
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT. A SFC TROUGH
ALONG 55W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE AND ALSO AID
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
AREA BY WED WITH AN OVERALL DRYER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WED
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few scattered showers. For Monday,a weak surface trough will move thru bringing more shower activity.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN NOV 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...CAUSING SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY...LIMITING
THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE MOST
OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE REGIONAL WATERS...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. MODELS CROSS-SECTION SUGGESTS THAT THIS RELATIVE LOW MOISTURE
CONTENT AT MID-LEVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT
TO THE GENERAL PATTERN...SHOWING A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. BOTH FEATURES WILL
LIKELY BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
EXPECT PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE WINDWARD AREAS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR. STABLE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGHOUT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
AND MOUNTAIN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER
10/18Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-6
FT. MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL NORTH SWELL ON
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 85 78 85 79 / 20 40 40 40