Texas Fall 2013

[Portastorm]

Another day, more rain for Austin. Wow ... this is just amazing!

I wish that I had time to do some research on how tropical systems in the Pacific end up having much more of an impact on south central Texas than the Atlantic or Gulf. My brother and I were talking this weekend about it and I believe that Pacific tropical systems have given my part of Texas a lot more rain in the last 30 years than the Atlantic/Gulf basin. Today's rain in Austin is a direct result of the third or fourth Pacific tropical system this fall alone.

[Portastorm]

Is anyone else having trouble trying to get on Larry Cosgroves articles and his winter outlook? For months now every time I try I get an article dating from last March. Nothing current. Very strange. Google does not want to cooperate. Maybe I am just dumb

Send me a PM with your email address and I would be happy to forward it to you.

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my latest weather article on another possible heavy rain event this week! Please check it out!
http://www.examiner.com/article/more-heavy-rain-possible-this-week

[weatherdude1108]

It is so nice to have the site back up and running again! I was so used to getting multiple opinions on the forecast discussions and what not. I was going through withdrawals!

Hoping this next rain event is more to the west and northwest so the poor Highland Lakes (above Lake Austin) can benefit, where it counts. They have gotten the short end of the stick lately. All that water went into constant level Lake Austin, only to be released through floodgates and hydroelectric operations downstream to Matagorda Bay. Cruel irony. Here is just a snippet of the Ewx discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
320 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LIFT APPEARS
TO MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL
FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. WE/LL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
HIGH AND WILL ALSO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ABOVE REGIONS.REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
HIGHEST ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35... WHERE SOME 1-2"
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

[Ntxw]

I know I said models were showing a mild start to November, well that hasn't been the case in DFW. First week will end up some -3c below normal. Why? As the case in October the subtropical jet from the EPAC continues to steam roll the very +AO. Probably in relation to the EPO refusing to go positive. Portastorm broadbushed this earlier with how moisture keeps coming from the SW. I had this discussion with weatherdude earlier in the year about PDO, ENSO and how the Pacific dominates TX weather with good example occuring.

[gboudx]

Got an inch at our house from yesterday and last nights rain.

[weatherdude1108]

Got an inch at my place last night also. Water still puddled in the yard even after a week without rain. Wish Travis and Buchanan would get in on more of this.

[Portastorm]

Definitely feels like fall out there. Front rolled through with a little rain around 9:30 and temps have dropped into the upper 50s. Love it!!

[Tireman4]

Definitely feels like fall out there. Front rolled through with a little rain around 9:30 and temps have dropped into the upper 50s. Love it!!

Make it come this way Porta. Please.......................

[Ntxw]

Soon Tireman4 soon!

[Texas Snowman]

Big storm next week?

Saw this on a post from Garrett Bastardi. The GFS is showing some snow on the ground in Oklahoma.

Maybe it's out in la-la-land. In fact, for me personally, I'd settle for my duck ponds and Lake Texoma and Ray Roberts finally being in the bulls-eye of a cold, run-off producing rainstorm!

[Rgv20]

Hopefully the front comes thru with some Rain! The ECMWF has been rather generous with rainfall totals 1-1.5 inches for my area. Will shall see how much rain we get later this afternoon into tonight...

[Portastorm]

12z GFS does suggest a major, wet cold front impacting the Southern Plains and Texas in about two weeks. Last few operational runs from the GFS suggested similar. Definitely something to watch. I haven't perused the ensembles though. Will be curious to see what they, and the Euro show.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You guys see the high pressure building in the C Pac? Holy Moly. 1053 MB High centered just SW of Alaska. How does that high build up so much? Is it because of the Super typhoon Pumping it up? Or does the extremely warm water near the Philippines have alot to do with it? Curious but that high is HUGE

[Rgv20]

Posted this on the Winter thread.....According to the 0z operational runs we should move to the Texas winter thread!

Looks to me like the 0z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at some cold weather coming to Texas by the end of next week. 0zECMWF has a major winter storm for Oklahoma with snow as far south into Dallas by next Friday!

0zGFS snow forecast for next Thursday November 14..



0zGFS Sea level pressure forecast courtesy of Ryan Maue Twitter....1046MB High in 6 days!

[gboudx]

We had some patchy frost on rooftops and shaded areas this morning. We didn't to bring the plants in because we weren't under the Frost Advisory. Guess we'll see which ones are hardy and which ones aren't.

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro operational run continues to show a major-league cold front for Texas for the middle of next week. Quite impressive for mid November.

[dhweather]

I got about 1" total from Saturday-Tuesday.



But right now, I can't quit looking at Super Typhoon Haiyan - amazing. Gotta be contributing big time to the strong ridge in the Pacific.

[Portastorm]

I got about 1" total from Saturday-Tuesday.



But right now, I can't quit looking at Super Typhoon Haiyan - amazing. Gotta be contributing big time to the strong ridge in the Pacific.

You don't have a system like that which doesn't cause dramatic impacts downstream (i.e. CONUS). Next week should be very interesting.

[gpsnowman]

The local CBS weather report is jumping on the cold front next week. Possible freeze with highs in the low 50's Wednesday and Thursday. Looks like the main arctic air stays north and east but the map sure looked pretty. Bring it! Would this front be a result of the typhoon currently slamming the Philippines?