Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today but the weekend looks drier.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...500 TO 250 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RELOCATE
SOUTH TO EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY NORTH OF THE AREA...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT JOHN. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
IN COASTAL AREAS AND THE WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...
HOWEVER STILL THE RISK OF SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHEAST FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY
OF TROUGH ALOFT. SHARP RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL
AS URBAN FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A DECREASING TREND IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
RELOCATES SOUTH TO EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
SHRA/VCSH WITH ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED FOR TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST...AND TISX
TODAY...WHICH COULD CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT TJPS...AT AROUND 10
KTS INCREASING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SEAS LIKELY TO BUILD BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 77 82 77 / 50 60 60 10
STT 85 78 86 78 / 50 50 50 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 AM AST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...THE MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUED TO ADVECT COOL AIR AND PATCHES OF QUICK PASSING LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES BUT SO FAR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WERE OFFSHORE EXPECT FOR SAINT THOMAS WERE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WAS
REPORTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
EXPECTED THIS PATTERN OF PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

LATEST MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST TUTT AND ASSOCIATED
LOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING
NORTHEAST TRADES WILL BRING INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PARTS OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE EVENING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...LATEST 12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGEST PREVAILING
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS BLO FL150...THEN BACKING W/HT AND INCR FM THE
NORTH WITH MAX WND OF 50-60 KTS NR FL400. PASSING L/LVL CLDS AND
SHRA BTW FL020-080 ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS
AND OVR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...FEW TCU BUILDUPS/TSRA MAINLY E
AND S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...LATEST DATA FROM THE LOCAL BUOY AND THOSE NORTH
OF THE REGION...SUGGESTS OVERALL SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET WITH INCREASING
MODERATE TO LCOALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 15-21
KTS AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE DAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE
TO INCREASING AND DETERIORATING WINDS AND SEAS...RESULTING FROM A COMBINATION
OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND WIND WAVES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE IN EFFECT LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRODUCING
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING DEPICTED A SMALL
AREA OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. RADAR
OBSERVATIONS AND THE AWIPS LIGHTNING DETECTOR SENSOR DEPICTED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WELL
OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
THUS...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE DETECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RELOCATE TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE TROUGH/LOW AND FOR THAT REASON THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AN INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY TO THE SOUTH JUST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRODUCING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
PRODUCE ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALSO
WILL TRANSPORT SMALL BANDS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...CREATING
PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS BUT MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT IN GENERAL NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SHRA/VCSH WITH ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TIST...TNCM AND TKPK OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD
CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NE AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT WILL INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE LOCAL BUOY AND THOSE NORTH OF THE
REGION...SUGGESTS OVERALL SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET WITH INCREASING
MODERATE TO LCOALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS WINDS RANGING BETWEEN
15-21 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DUE TO INCREASING AND DETERIORATING WINDS AND
SEAS...RESULTING FROM A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS AND
WIND WAVES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR MUCH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 84 / 60 60 10 0
STT 74 84 74 86 / 60 60 10 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 PM AST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE LEEWARDS WILL
RETROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OF PR DURING THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL
MEANDER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SLOWLY FILLING. STRONG HIGH
PRES NEAR BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA AND 07/00Z JSJ SOUNDING
SHOW THAT PR LIES UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENT CONVERGENT SIDE OF UPPER
LOW BUT SOUNDER DATA SHOWS THAT UNSTABLE AIR LIES JUST EAST OF ST.
CROIX AND OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE LEEWARDS. AS UPPER LOW
DRIFTS WEST SAT MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ADVECT IN WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO ERN PR...THE USVI
AND THE CARIB WATERS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER
CARIB SEA AND ST. CROIX. DRYING TAKES PLACE LATE SAT BUT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
FOR THE OPEN CARIB WATERS AS H5 LOW RETROGRESSES TO THE WEST OF 70W.
HAVE KEPT CONTINUITY OF PREVIOUS FCST OF KEEPING FCST DRY FOR LAND
AREAS FOR SUN DESPITE THE 18Z GFS THROWING MOISTURE BACK INTO PR
SUN. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FCST SYSTEM AND 12Z ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT
THIS DRY SCENARIO OF KEEPING THE INCLEMENT WX OVR THE CARIB.

WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SAT AND PEAK
LATE SUN NIGHT. WINDS NEAR 25 KT APPEAR DEFINITE PERHAPS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THAT. PRES GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT TUE-THU AS
BERMUDA HIGHS SHIFTS EAST BUT ANOTHER MONSTER HIGH WILL EXIT THE
MID ATLC COAST FRI WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING AGAIN WITH SFC
WINDS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN WITH THIS EVENT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINTAINING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID TO UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRESS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MEANDER OVER THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GOOD MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS
NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE USVI AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PR MAY OBSERVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THESE SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LOW AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND
INTO OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND AREAS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT STILL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...ACROSS MANY SECTORS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK IN SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NE WINDS 20-25 KTS.

&&


.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL INVADES THE LOCAL WATERS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS BY TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...BUOY 41053 JUST NORTH OF SAN
JUAN...IS REPORTING SEAS OF OVER 6 FEET. BUOY 41043 IN THE
ATLANTIC...JUST UNDER 200 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN IS
REPORTING SEAS OF OVER 10 FEET. THE PERIOD IS FAIRLY
SHORT...AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS SO AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT MEET
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 74 / 60 40 0 10
STT 85 75 86 76 / 60 30 0 10

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory issued


COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 AM AST SAT DEC 7 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING COASTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.A SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL COMBINED WITH LOCAL GENERATED WIND
WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE...LOCAL BEACH GOERS...
AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.

PRZ001-002-005-008-012-013-VIZ001-002-072315-
/O.COR.TJSJ.SU.Y.0012.131207T1447Z-131209T1000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1047 AM AST SAT DEC 7 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY.

* WAVES AND SURF: BREAKING WAVES OF 9 TO 12 FEET.

* TIMING: THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL PRODUCE STRONG RIP CURRENTS
MAKING SWIMMING DANGEROUS.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE DURING THE ADVISORY FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

ARECIBO HARBOR: 11:55 AM AST SATURDAY AT 2.04 FEET.
12:22 AM AST SUNDAY AT 1.36 FEET.

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 12:47 PM AST SATURDAY AT 1.84 FEET.
12:56 AM AST SUNDAY AT 1.17 FEET.

FAJARDO: 12:37 PM AST SATURDAY AT 1.82 FEET.
12:46 AM AST SUNDAY AT 1.16 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 12:55 PM AST SATURDAY AT 1.48 FEET.
11:35 PM AST SATURDAY AT 0.47 FEET.

CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 11:34 AM AST SATURDAY AT 0.80 FEET.
11:56 AM AST SUNDAY AT 0.73 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES
SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO
THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF
OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[Patti]

Hi there all. We have just had a small tornado here on St Maarten. Was it a tornado or a water spout that came onto the land? There was lots of rain and heavy wind and then up the valley came this giant spout of debris. Our dog was acting very strange and then our gas bbq, complete with gas bottle, blew into the pool. our very heavy pool loungers took off over the wall and down the road. The road to the Westin from Dawn Beach (where i live) is blocked due to downed trees. I have spoken to some neighbours and most of them report downed trees and garden furniture damage. Hope everyone is safe and dry. Take care.

[cycloneye]

Hi there all. We have just had a small tornado here on St Maarten. Was it a tornado or a water spout that came onto the land? There was lots of rain and heavy wind and then up the valley came this giant spout of debris. Our dog was acting very strange and then our gas bbq, complete with gas bottle, blew into the pool. our very heavy pool loungers took off over the wall and down the road. The road to the Westin from Dawn Beach (where i live) is blocked due to downed trees. I have spoken to some neighbours and most of them report downed trees and garden furniture damage. Hope everyone is safe and dry. Take care.

Hi Patti. That is a interesting event that occurred there that has to be investigated by the authorities to see what really occurred. It would be interesting to get photos of the damage to see how extensive the event was.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN
A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER LOW EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MEANDER OVER THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...PROMOTING A GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CYCLONIC
ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY HAVE SHOWED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS ALL DAY. THE BRISK NORTHEAST
FLOW HAS CARRIED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE FAST MOVEMENT
OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER LAND
AREAS. RAIN GAGES AND RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 0.75 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. BASICALLY...THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL ENERGY REVOLVING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW EAST OF THE ISLANDS...MAY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEN...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FAVOR THE EROSION OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA IN SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG NE WINDS OF 20-25
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL AND
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 84 / 40 60 20 20
STT 73 84 75 87 / 40 60 20 20

[cycloneye]

The rainy weather will continue thru Sunday. Conditions at sea are rough so the beachgoers should not get into the water due to rip currents.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES WINDS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT
SURGES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING WEST
SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE AND
INCREASE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN ALL SUGGEST
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING TO JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH FAIR AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD MAKE FOR AN OVERALL WET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED
SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT EXPECTED CONDITIONS. WITH SOILS ALREADY
LOOSE AND SATURATED IN SOME AREAS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ON SUNDAY
MAY LEAD TO MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...AS WELL AS
QUICK RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. THE EXPECTED SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER
BE FAST MOVING DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.

FOR LOCAL BEACH GOERS AND TOURISTS...DUE TO THE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TNCM AND
TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME IN SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08/12Z. HOWEVER...PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFTER 08/12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR EXPECTED. TEMPO
MTN TOP OBSCR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PASSING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL ALONG WITH LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVES CONTINUED TO PRODUCE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. LATEST BUOY DATA FROM BOTH THE NEAR
SHORE AND OFFSHORE ATLANTIC ALL SUGGEST SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FEET
AT 9 TO 10 SECS. EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND WIND SENSORS INDICATED
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TRADES WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
25-31 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT
AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.The rainy weather will continue to affect PR and VI today. Conditions at sea are rough so the beachgoers should not get into the water due to rip currents.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY AS IT STARTS TO MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY...CAUSING
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER
THE AREA COMBINING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND CAUSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...MOSTLY AFFECTING EASTERN PUERTO RICO...THE
USVI AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVED IN FROM THE EAST AND AFFECTED
THE USVI LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THOSE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED EASTERN PR AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THE SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORKWEEK. HOWEVER
PASSING SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD AFFECT THE ISLANDS. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...HOLDING ON AT ABOUT
20-25 MPH ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ/TIST/TISX FROM TIME TO TIME IN SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS WITH COMBINED
SEAS AVERAGING ABOUT 8 YO 9 FEET WITH A 10 SECOND PERIOD...AND A
MAX OF UP TO 10 FEET WITH 11 SECOND PERIOD OBSERVED AT THE SAN
JUAN BUOY NUMBER 41053. WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED PREVAILING AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS...GUSTING UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 50 20 20 20
STT 85 75 87 77 / 60 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon.The rainy weather will slowly subside in PR and VI starting on Monday. Conditions at sea are rough so the beachgoers should not get into the water due to rip currents.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL MEANDER
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DECREASE IN CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PROMOTING A
GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW HAS RESULTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE LIMITED THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER LAND AREAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THIS UPPER LOW HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...AND
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IT LINGERING NEAR THE ISLANDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK WHILE SLOWLY FILLING.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD AND BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FAVOR A GENERALLY
SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...LIMITING THE SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN NIGHT TIME/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI. ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHALLOW AND DEVELOP FARTHER
DOWNWIND DUE TO THE STRONGER FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM/TKPK AND TJPS/TIST/TISX FROM TIME TO TIME IN SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST UP TO 30 KTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF A SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL AND
LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AT LEAST TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
HAVE AVERAGED 8-11 FEET AT 9-11 SECS SINCE THIS MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE SEAS HAVE PEAKED THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FEET ON MONDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 84 / 20 30 40 40
STT 75 87 77 86 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Trinidad and Tobago Met services

ISSUED AT: 02:54PM
Date:Sunday 08th of December 2013

Meteorologist: Paula Wellington

FOR THE PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON,EVENING AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Leeward Islands
: Mostly cloudy with periods of showers and/or
rain in various locations. One or two of these
showers may be heavy or thundery. Overnight
showers are expected tonight.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Sunny afternoon except for the odd shower,
becoming clear and cool tonight.

All persons with marine interest should exercise
caution.
Gusty winds,street and flash flooding may occur
in heavy showers and thundershowers.


SEAS: Normal to Moderate but Rough in the Leewards
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5m but in excess of 3.0m in Leewards IN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius


TODAY'S MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 31 Crown Point: 30
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:41PM
Date:Saturday 07th of December 2013

Port of Spain HIGH 8:31am 8:33pm LOW 1:59am 2:27pm
Scarborough HIGH 8:10am 8:14pm LOW 1:38am 2:16pm

[WacoWx]

I will be heading to Cancun Wednesday dec 11th to Monday the 16th. Does anyone know what kind of weather I can expect for that timeframe?

Any info would be appreciated. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

I will be heading to Cancun Wednesday dec 11th to Monday the 16th. Does anyone know what kind of weather I can expect for that timeframe?

Any info would be appreciated. Thanks!

I found the forecast for Cancun thru the 14th and it looks like scattered showers will be there at that period.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option= ... &Itemid=40

[Gustywind]

Orange alert is up for Guadeloupe since 8 PM yesterday due to strong showers and tsorms. This very wet weather continues to bring juicy amount of water in the butterfly island. I will keep your informed if i've any infos, pics, etc. as usual , hoping that things will improve quickly. No report of death but injuried, people.

From our daily newspaper France-Antilles:

Bad weather puts Guadeloupe in level of vigilance 'Orange.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 246102.php


No improvement is to hope on the side of the time before the end of weekend. For proof: weather France services have placed since yesterday evening the orange vigilance Department - St-Martin remains for his part in yellow- Caution on the roads: heavy rains have caused several accidents that have made 8 minor injuries.

Than water! Yesterday, between 18 and 21 hours, weather France has estimated that precipitation totals were able to achieve up to 90 mm in Baie-Mahault and Les Abymes (90 litres of water/m2) or between 40 and 70 mm in the sector ranging from guava in Capesterre. Lack of opportunity for all those who had planned a few walks or outings to take advantage of the weekend: the situation will not improve. To the extent that weather services, after having placed the archipelago in level of vigilance yellow early in the weekend, finally raised the alert by one notch on the evening of Saturday parant map of the Department of orange - the island of Saint-Martin remains in yellow.
For the day to come, the time should therefore remain very unstable and particularly stormy due to a strong current of disturbed Alizé which should generate new showers locally intense. "Locally, rainfall totals are able to reach significant values in little time and cause flooding," indicated in the morning the forecasters. This additional gusts of wind of the order of 60-70 km/h may occur mainly on the coast, to the passage of these storms, but also in a sea which the State remains currently degraded. For example, average dips in Atlantic reach, according to the latest measurements, the 3 m to 3.5 m by Northeast swell.


ACCIDENTS AND FLOODS
Against this unfavourable background, authorities recommend the population to redouble their vigilance. Especially on the road, where the more or less important water climbs were already recorded, Saturday night. The most problematic in terms of traffic remains for sure the flooding which occurred between Sainte-Marie and Cambrefort, in the sector of Capesterre, and which has generated very significant slowdowns.
Side balance, bad weather especially favoured accidents which have tended to multiply to the four corners of the island and Capesterre, specifically Le Gosier, Morne-à - l'eau or Saint-François. This morning, the rescue services of the Codis (operational Center fire and rescue) ensured have supported since Saturday 8 injured light in shocks or collisions involving at least 10 vehicles.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
911 PM AST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...MID TO UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING/FILLING DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO RACE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ENHANCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
BRUSH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS STEERED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
A SLIGHT LOOSENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BY THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT PASSING
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING TRADE WINDS SHOWERS TO AFFECT PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE ACTIVITY HOWEVER
WILL BE LESS FREQUENT AS IN RECENT DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS EACH DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL COMBINED WITH LOCAL GENERATED
WIND WAVES CONTINUED TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. FOR UPDATES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PR.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Less rain is expected today in PR and VI as the upper low moves away. Seas continue rough so the beachgoers should not get into the water due to rip currents.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL CUTOFF WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS INTO THE
WRN CARIB BY TUE WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS NEAR PR WHILE
SLOWLY FILLING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR PR TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WWD TODAY AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TAKING
DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT WITH SHARP DRYING EXPECTED AFTER 12Z TODAY.
SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN WINDY.
WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER TUE THROUGH FRI AS BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST.

ON WED...ANOTHER BATCH OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVR THE
USVI AND PR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THINGS FINALLY FRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FILLS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER
STRONG HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST FRI NIGHT
WITH TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SAT SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. THIS NEW HIGH WILL
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP ISOLD MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MRNG BUT
ACTIVITY WL DECR BY DAYBREAK. ISOLD/SCT SHRA THIS AFT THRU TUE.
WIND FL010-FL150 E 20-35 KT THRU AT LEAST TUE AFT. LLWS MAY BCM
POSBL IF WIND ALOFT DECOUPLES FM SFC...BUT SO FAR WINDS ARE GUSTY
TO SFC.

&&

.MARINE...STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS. SEAS
IMPROVE QUICKLY TUE THROUGH FRI AS WINDS DIMINISH. ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC SAT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS
LIKELY AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN TO 7-9 FT. HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATER TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 80 84 80 / 20 30 40 50
STT 86 80 87 80 / 30 30 40 40

[WacoWx]

I will be heading to Cancun Wednesday dec 11th to Monday the 16th. Does anyone know what kind of weather I can expect for that timeframe?

Any info would be appreciated. Thanks!

I found the forecast for Cancun thru the 14th and it looks like scattered showers will be there at that period.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option= ... &Itemid=40

Thanks for the timely reply. Since you appear to be more familiar with this area more so than I am, I was wondering if you could help with this forecast. We are going down for a wedding, and I was wondering if these 5 days of 60% chances of rain are similar to an all day rain event, or is this a hit or miss shower or thunderstorm like here in Dallas?

I am just hoping that we are not in for a washout for the duration of our vacation. I would like to spend some time in the water in the sunshine but I'm not familiar with Mexican weather forecasting.

Thanks!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A
SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AWIPS LIGHTNING DETECTOR SENSOR DEPICTED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...WELL OUTSIDE OF
OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY
LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW OF
THEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FINALLY A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
PCPN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE AT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLC SAT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS LIKELY AND SEAS BUILDING AGAIN TO 7-9
FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 84 / 30 40 50 50
STT 76 87 77 86 / 30 40 40 40