Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Comanche, as Ntxw said earlier ... that pool of warm anomalies in the North Pacific has been around pretty much all calendar year. And, get this ... there is some data which suggests it's getting even warmer! That pool helps the -EPO/Alaska ridge block and will keep pumping whatever air is up there ... down here.

Feedbacks for the win! It's like summer of 2011 in reverse! The warm water builds more ridges and the ridges makes the water warmer sinking more cold into the conus! It will probably take something big to collapse it, perhaps a big ENSO event like a La Nina. Given the trend is towards warming in ENSO that appears unlikely.



The CFSv2 Actually maintains the warm pool straight through fall of next year. However that is exceptionally far away and is subject to extreme errors, but given the durability it has had, odds are in some form it will remain in the region for a long time to come. IF El Nino forms the pool will likely spread to the coast of NA and flip the PDO+ at least for a time. But that is for the ENSO thread! We actually saw something like this happen in 1976, a similar pool (of lesser strength) forced a couple of weak Ninos (Hello 77-78) during a -PDO.

[MGC]

So, should I cancel the snow plow order yet?.....MGC

[Ntxw]

So, should I cancel the snow plow order yet?.....MGC

In MS yes, you will be nice and toasty with Florida next to the SE ridge. Invite wxman57 over for Christmas! He would love nothing more! He's been quite miserable over here.

[MGC]

Y'all can exile 57 over this way. We will give him the warmth he cherishes, he can ride his bike along the seawall.......MGC

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is probably something NTX doesn't want to hear but it looks like an ice storm. But it's yet another flip to another solution so, many more to come. It's had just about everything.

Here are the Christmas period from the GFS past few days:

1. Could be mild and 60s
2. Could be frigid and single digits
3. Could be Sunny
4. Could be wet
5. Could be snow or ice

Do I really need a model to tell me that?

[katheria]

Im just waiting for it show 100f lol
Dont think that will happen thou

[MississippiWx]

So, should I cancel the snow plow order yet?.....MGC

In MS yes, you will be nice and toasty with Florida next to the SE ridge. Invite wxman57 over for Christmas! He would love nothing more! He's been quite miserable over here.

Ntwx,

I've seen you post this a few times already. We in MS have certainly not been baking or even warm for the most part this month. We have had several nights in the 20s, even down here in South MS. That is unusual for us this early. We've also had several days where we couldn't get out of the 30s/40s. No, we haven't had extreme cold like the Southern Plains, but this pattern is far from a warm one for us. In fact, we look to be very much in the path of the next bout of Arctic air at Christmas, albeit not as intensely cold as areas a little north and west of here.

Just thought I'd share this with you.

We can always continue this conversation on the Deep South thread where it belongs!

[Ntxw]

Thanks for sharing =). I don't actually follow the sensible weather down that way, I'm just going by what I see based on NWS data. It was meant as a tongue-in-cheek comment. You are correct in that the interior of MS so far has seen slightly below average the further north and west and above average the closer to the coast. It's a battle zone (based on averages) definitely could be bleeding out.

I agree it's not a perfect forecast there to say the ridge will block every cold surge, wxman57 likes to tell us the at the lower levels it tends to defy the upper flow which is what you've probably experienced. If we can get the NAO to go a little negative everyone will share the wealth . For those in Florida and S Georgia though, December is the new June!

[Red Raider fan]

Hello all, first time posting here but been an avid guest for at least 3 years.

[ouamber]

Does anyone have any of tonight's Euro maps to show?

[Tireman4]

Hello all, first time posting here but been an avid guest for at least 3 years.

Welcome. I hope you enjoy in these parts!!!

[wxman57]

Y'all can exile 57 over this way. We will give him the warmth he cherishes, he can ride his bike along the seawall.......MGC

Looks like I'll be driving by the week of Jan 20th or 27th to visit our clients in Pascagoula. Was there just before Thanksgiving visiting other clients and we drove along 90 to Pass Christian.

[wxman57]

Does anyone have any of tonight's Euro maps to show?

I can't show the maps, but the trend is most definitely away from any extreme cold or snow in Texas - both in the operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF and in the deterministic runs. Last night's ECMWF keeps the snow confined to the northern TX panhandle to northern OK Christmas week. No cross-Polar flow on either the GFS or ECMWF. Not even a freeze down to Houston in the EC 2m temps. Light freeze northern Houston in the latest GFS runs.

Based on the fact that the models are now indicating an upper-level pattern that would not support extreme cold or snow (as opposed to 3-5 days ago), I'd say that I'm inclined to believe that chances of major cold and/or snow across TX have dropped considerably. Good news (for me) is that the latest GFS has temps into the mid 70s next Friday and Saturday in Houston!

[somethingfunny]

Does anyone have any of tonight's Euro maps to show?

I don't have it but I believe the 0z runs of the Euro and GFS both backed off quite a bit on the system.

I've seen these go both ways - sometimes the long-range models will seem to always have a huge Arctic outbreak just beyond the next 7 days... and it never comes or it comes in a weakened state. I've also seen the long-range models (particularly the GFS) have a huge event depicted 1-2 weeks away, then completely lose track of it a bit over a week out, and then suddenly pick it up again a few days later, like around five days out.

I have a hard time believing this Christmas week won't be extremely cold here given the pattern that's evolving thus far and the fact that we've already been quite cold this year, unlike other Decembers when "Lucy snaps the football."

.LONG TERM...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REPLACE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST WILLINCREASE
AND RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE AND COULD TOP
70 DEGREES ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES ON THURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE KEEPING THE AREA DRY.

FORECAST CHALLENGES RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS THE
CHILL BACK TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE INITIAL
PUSH OF THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO HANG IT UP ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES ON SATURDAY DUE TO
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF AN ORGANIZING UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME ARCTIC PROPERTIES TO
IT AND IF THIS IS TRUE...IT IS LIKELY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGARDLESS HOW OF SHALLOW IT IS
INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE AT
THIS TIME.

WE HAVE TAKEN A MEAN BETWEEN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE FRIDAY
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED ON OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE. LOW POPS WILL REMAIN
ADVERTISED AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A WARM NOSE IS PREVALENT ALOFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THE 850 MB COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER ON SATURDAY AND HELPS TO DEEPEN THE
COLD AIR. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF A RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN MIX JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE DFW METRO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE SLEET MIXING
IN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY AFTERNOON.

A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION THIS FAR OUT
DUE TO MANY DETAILS NEEDING TO BE RESOLVED. REFINEMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK AS THE MODELS GET A
BETTER GRASP ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.

05/

Something else about the TV meteorologists that many of us follow on social media - they seem more hesitant about the wintry precipitation forecast than they do about the Arctic chill forecast. I'd hate to have several days below freezing without some beautiful whiteness on the ground (I don't live in the Grayson County Tundras anymore) .... but while the TV meteorologists have to focus on wintry precipitation threats, that's never been a strong possibility with this system. It is possible, yes, but it could just be dry.

[TrekkerCC]

Does anyone have any of tonight's Euro maps to show?

I can't show the maps, but the trend is most definitely away from any extreme cold or snow in Texas - both in the operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF and in the deterministic runs. Last night's ECMWF keeps the snow confined to the northern TX panhandle to northern OK Christmas week. No cross-Polar flow on either the GFS or ECMWF. Not even a freeze down to Houston in the EC 2m temps. Light freeze northern Houston in the latest GFS runs.

Based on the fact that the models are now indicating an upper-level pattern that would not support extreme cold or snow (as opposed to 3-5 days ago), I'd say that I'm inclined to believe that chances of major cold and/or snow across TX have dropped considerably. Good news (for me) is that the latest GFS has temps into the mid 70s next Friday and Saturday in Houston!

Do you still think that this might be an artifact of the models losing the arctic air and the models could bring it back within the 2-3 days? The models have done this many times before and so I'm a bit suspicious that we suddenly the models are showing it now warm (relatively) compared to a few days ago. I do note the ECMWF has a slow moving upper level low again on the 00z run. The WPO and EPO have been continuing to be very negative. Usually, if we do have cold air coming down from the north, upper level lows can be blockbuster snow events for NTX/Central TX. If it is warmer, we could have a beneficial rain event, but alas, I would love snow instead of ice this time, especially in time for the holidays. I know you would like to have it 80F in Houston on Christmas, wxman57, but I think I would rather have a White Christmas (even if the snow is deposited a few days beforehand).

[wxman57]

Do you still think that this might be an artifact of the models losing the arctic air and the models could bring it back within the 2-3 days? The models have done this many times before and so I'm a bit suspicious that we suddenly the models are showing it now warm (relatively) compared to a few days ago. I do note the ECMWF has a slow moving upper level low again on the 00z run. The WPO and EPO have been continuing to be very negative. Usually, if we do have cold air coming down from the north, upper level lows can be blockbuster snow events for NTX/Central TX. If it is warmer, we could have a beneficial rain event, but alas, I would love snow instead of ice this time, especially in time for the holidays. I know you would like to have it 80F in Houston on Christmas, wxman57, but I think I would rather have a White Christmas (even if the snow is deposited a few days beforehand).

Typically, when the models lose the cold air they do so only on the surface projections not the 500mb flow as well. The models backed off in all levels, not just the surface maps so I'd tend to believe that any extreme cold will be way to our north. We should still see below-normal temps Christmas week but probably not extreme cold in TX. Snow chances declining significantly, too.

[Sambucol]

Do you still think that this might be an artifact of the models losing the arctic air and the models could bring it back within the 2-3 days? The models have done this many times before and so I'm a bit suspicious that we suddenly the models are showing it now warm (relatively) compared to a few days ago. I do note the ECMWF has a slow moving upper level low again on the 00z run. The WPO and EPO have been continuing to be very negative. Usually, if we do have cold air coming down from the north, upper level lows can be blockbuster snow events for NTX/Central TX. If it is warmer, we could have a beneficial rain event, but alas, I would love snow instead of ice this time, especially in time for the holidays. I know you would like to have it 80F in Houston on Christmas, wxman57, but I think I would rather have a White Christmas (even if the snow is deposited a few days beforehand).

Typically, when the models lose the cold air they do so only on the surface projections not the 500mb flow as well. The models backed off in all levels, not just the surface maps so I'd tend to believe that any extreme cold will be way to our north. We should still see below-normal temps Christmas week but probably not extreme cold in TX. Snow chances declining significantly, too.

Are we "out of the woods" in Houston for pipe busting temps? No need to wrap the water pipes here?

[PTPatrick]

Y'all can exile 57 over this way. We will give him the warmth he cherishes, he can ride his bike along the seawall.......MGC

Looks like I'll be driving by the week of Jan 20th or 27th to visit our clients in Pascagoula. Was there just before Thanksgiving visiting other clients and we drove along 90 to Pass Christian.

Ha my folks are in Pascagoula, I fly down next weekend (Denver is a long drive) I'm hoping for at least seasonable cool wx. Last year it rained cats and dogs a lot of the time and was humid and warm, and of course we had the tornados Christmas Day. They're house is not built for 1989 freezes though, they are on stilts on the water with pipes nicely exposed on the underside. We never have had one burst but they froze many times over the years...2001, Dec 1996, 1994, 1989,... Katrina removed all the insulation on the underside and they reworked it where the underneath is all covered better and I don't think they have had them freeze so bad since. I dont think the 2000s have featured many nights in the teens though if any. We had just built the place in 89, I can remember. Freezing my nuckles in the north wind trying to help them wrap pipes and put up heat lamps. Interestingly houses in denver are built for cold but I was still surprised that sometimes people have problems. last week I knew of people who had a pipe burst in a finished basement. All it takes is a draft behind the wall. I saw you say something about hose bibs...I haven't used them before here and we have been near 20 below....but I may just pick some up . My house is a hundred years old and they are not frost free hose bibs, but I suppose I've been lucky.

[Portastorm]

Interesting overnight developments in the operational and ensembles models. As wxman57 has pointed out that we now see a significant departure in the trend, away from severe or significant cold around Christmas. However, we are far, far from sounding any "all clear" notice and as he himself always points out ... one cannot be real confident in any model solution until you get to the 96-120 hour period BEFORE a front or weather event. Jump on the overnight bandwagon at your own risk, folks.

Nevertheless, here's a look at the 6z GEFS from yesterday (top) and then today ... showing how the ridging in the Pacific impacts the delivery of Arctic air. Today's 6z GEFS shows a much flatter ridging and, thus, less cold air.



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[Portastorm]

For strictly entertainment purposes, Texans can check out the 12z operational run from the GFS ... it offers a major Texas snowstorm for much of the state the week between Christmas and New Years.