Texas Winter 2013-2014

[txwxwatcher]

I think David Paul might of been referring to In-House models...

That was my impression, especially with the Futurecast graphic he was displaying. Let me know if you have any idea about what they use for input in that one.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The key in his forecast was the band of precip trained over the same area. If that were to happen, then 5-7 inches is without a doubt a possibility.

[txwxwatcher]

The key in his forecast was the band of precip trained over the same area. If that were to happen, then 5-7 inches is without a doubt a possibility.

Precisely. He raised the 5 inch possibility immediately after talking about the Futurecast's forecast of a training situation along I-10.

[ravyrn]

Come on guys, no need to argue. We all know that NO ONE can accurately predict snowfall amounts, even 1 hour before the event starts. Ntxw has been GREAT in providing tons of information and really knows his stuff. I am sure he is just giving his opinion and letting you know not to bank everything on one forecast by one person. In his defense, there are NO models showing those amounts of snow so his wondering is quite understandable.

BUT, for the record, I hope you do get 6 inches! I hope we all do! ALL SNOW. hehe

I wasn't trying to be argumentative. I was just trying to inquire as to the source of these snow forecasts. I'll certainly concede to the professionals. None of the model data supports it. That's why we're asking. We're just stating the model data GFS/NAM/EURO doesn't support it. We're here to discuss weather, and I'd love to figure out what is making some of the professionals in HOU come to the snowy solutions. This is a rare event and will be a learning experience for all. We only gain knowledge through discussion. That's all I'm trying to do, and I'm sure it's the same case for Ntxw. I just want to try to figure out what is the driving factor behind these snowy forecasts, as they are quite bold. If they end up being correct, the method in which they came to that forecast would certainly be useful to us in the future. If I came off as argumentative, my apologies. That certainly wasn't my intention.

[Ntxw]

By all means I hope I am wrong in interpreting the models and it turns out he is right it is heavy snowfall event. That would be fun and much easier to deal with. I just hope it doesn't turn the public off guard if indeed it is an sleet (thus ice) event which is a much more severe impact to travel. Which both the NAM/GFS/and Euro seem to be suggesting.

[Jagno]

Okay, help me understand something. I seem to always be caught in the middle here. Now we are seeing this "Futurecast" with the potential for 5"+ in SE Texas, west of me, and other models showing the same 5"+ east of me in Baton Rouge. Why does our local forecasts only call for 1/4" of possible sleet/ice and 1/2" of snow possible here in Lake Charles?

[Ntxw]

Okay, help me understand something. I seem to always be caught in the middle here. Now we are seeing this "Futurecast" with the potential for 5"+ in SE Texas, west of me, and other models showing the same 5"+ east of me in Baton Rouge. Why does our local forecasts only call for 1/4" of possible sleet/ice and 1/2" of snow possible here in Lake Charles?

You should stick to your local NWS forecast. Sleet/Ice will be your dominant precip type followed by a little snow, they fit well with model consensus. The higher totals are based on individual mets or institutions.

[South Texas Storms]

Here's my latest weather article on the potential upcoming winter weather event across central and southeast Texas!
http://www.examiner.com/article/more-frozen-precipitation-possible-on-tuesday

[BigB0882]

Most models are not showing 5 inches in Baton Rouge and none that we can see show that in SETX. The models don't really differentiate between sleet and snow, it seems. GFS is showing 6+ for Baton Rouge but if you look at their data output and soundings, it won't all be snow. Only about 3 inches would be snow. So don't worry. IF (big if) SETX and BTR get 5" then I imagine you would, too.

[mcheer23]

According to KHOU (Houston)

"The snow will begin in our northern counties late Monday night and by Tuesday morning snow and sleet will be falling from the immediate Houston area all the way to the coast. Snow totals are generally expected to be 1 to 2 inches area wide, with some spots picking up 3 to 5 inches of the white stuff."

[Rgv20]

Just so people can visualize this is the Snow forecast totals from the 0zNAM thru 84hrs...




Now look at the Sleet forecast totals thru 84hrs, so at least according to this particular model Sleet would be the dominant precipitation.

[BigB0882]

Some of those maps use colors that are too close to each other. I can never tell exactly which part I am in.

[txwxwatcher]

According to KHOU (Houston)

"The snow will begin in our northern counties late Monday night and by Tuesday morning snow and sleet will be falling from the immediate Houston area all the way to the coast. Snow totals are generally expected to be 1 to 2 inches area wide, with some spots picking up 3 to 5 inches of the white stuff."

Yes. Also note that this was posted about 4 hours before David Paul's late evening on air forecast.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It appears as if the 21Z of the SREF is developing some light precipitation further north into Texas. Anyone else seeing this?

[Ntxw]

The Euro seems to be the dry one of the bunch (minus the crazy uncle Canadian). A little less than 0.10 of an inch of liquid, 0.20 tenths for northern and eastern areas. So sleet or snow it amounts to 0.5-1 inch of stuff for most of SE Texas core being closer to Jasper which is around 1.5inches. But it's been fairly bearish on the qpf from the start anyway.

[South Texas Storms]

The Euro seems to be the dry one of the bunch (minus the crazy uncle Canadian). A little less than 0.10 of an inch of liquid, 0.20 tenths for northern and eastern areas. So sleet or snow it amounts to 0.5-1 inch of stuff for most of SE Texas core being closer to Jasper which is around 1.5inches. But it's been fairly bearish on the qpf from the start anyway.

Yeah the 0z Euro is slightly drier than the 12z run. You think I have a good chance of seeing 1-2 inches of sleet/snow here in CLL, Ntxw?

[MississippiWx]

The Euro seems to be the dry one of the bunch (minus the crazy uncle Canadian). A little less than 0.10 of an inch of liquid, 0.20 tenths for northern and eastern areas. So sleet or snow it amounts to 0.5-1 inch of stuff for most of SE Texas core being closer to Jasper which is around 1.5inches. But it's been fairly bearish on the qpf from the start anyway.

Euro does kick out the upper level disturbance south of Baja. Trending towards the GFS at the 500mb level. Will be interesting if the precip amounts start going up in response. Euro is slightly wetter overall, but still dry in comparison.

[South Texas Storms]

The Euro seems to be the dry one of the bunch (minus the crazy uncle Canadian). A little less than 0.10 of an inch of liquid, 0.20 tenths for northern and eastern areas. So sleet or snow it amounts to 0.5-1 inch of stuff for most of SE Texas core being closer to Jasper which is around 1.5inches. But it's been fairly bearish on the qpf from the start anyway.

Euro does kick out the upper level disturbance south of Baja. Trending towards the GFS at the 500mb level. Will be interesting if the precip amounts start going up in response. Euro is slightly wetter overall, but still dry in comparison.

Yeah I was expecting to see an increase in the QPF amounts across SE Texas this run from the Euro due to it kicking out the Baja disturbance. Why do you think it didn't?

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF came in wetter for Deep South Texas but its not nearly cold enough for winter fun.

[Ntxw]

Yeah the 0z Euro is slightly drier than the 12z run. You think I have a good chance of seeing 1-2 inches of sleet/snow here in CLL, Ntxw?

I do, but I don't know how much of that will "stick." It does look colder than last round so not as much melting. I would side with the GFS on this, orangeblood has mentioned it before but this model seems to be on fire within the 3 day range. Euro has been doing some weird things this year off and on again.