#4877 Postby Steve » Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:26 pm
I'm pretty excited about tomorrow. I plan on going to work in the morning, as I don't have to cross any bridges or drive on any overpasses to get to work. Unless it's either insane out or about to be, ima go in for a couple of hours. For everyone who has to get out tomorrow, be careful on the roads. If you have little or no experience driving in any manner of frozen weather, the best advice is to drive 10-15 mph slower than you otherwise would, stay as far back as possible from any traffic in front of you (since a collision into someone's rear end will almost always be your fault) and watch out for other drivers losing control. That means constant surveying of all potential traffic: in front of you, behind you and to both sides, including traffic moving toward you perpendicularly.
As far as effects on the Southshore, I think there are a few different ways things could go. The question marks are 1) when does the supportable cold arrive, how cold is it, and what is the vertical profile of the cold airmass, 2) when does the overriding moisture arrive, 3) how long does the precipitation event(s) last, 4) what type of wintry event or combination-wintry event do we see.
I could be 100% wrong here (reference to my earlier post about how impossible ENE moving winter gulf lows are to forecast). But what I think happens is a transition overnight to much colder weather. I think we all recognize that considering the front moved through earlier. NWS and some of the models conflict on when we reach supportable cold. Last check of NOAA had it getting close to freezing by morning then climbing a couple of degrees before falling back to freezing by about 11. So if it is 11, do we start with some rain/freezing rain or has that already started. Maybe some sleet mixes in before becoming the dominant precipitation type for the afternoon. With the NAM being faster to pull the energy up, that could go for at least several hours before lightening up or possibly transitioning to snow. you would think most everything would be over before or not much past dawn on Wednesday. One thing that might bode well for points north of the snow/ice line, is that some of the 18z models, in addition (or in conjunction with) to the so-called baja low, bring in some type of upper feature-disturbance out the southern Rockies enhancing the lift and precip as the snow/ice line stretches out. So that could be an additional enhancing feature.
Gun to the head guess would be freezing rain and sleet in the morning into the mid afternoon with a transition to mostly sleet. I could see us getting .35". Maybe we see a 1/4-1/2" snow or snow/sleet event after that. Reality will end up being anywhere between a super cold drizzle and a historic snow and ice storm. I side more with downplaying what we will see, but even in my scenario, the city is crippled at least until Wednesday afternoon. Anything worse, who knows. One thing I am pretty sure of, is many of our fellow southerners will see snow like they have never seen before.
This post is not official information whatsoever.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
