Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

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HurriGuy
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4901 Postby HurriGuy » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:50 pm

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4902 Postby windnrain » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:52 pm

HurriGuy wrote:Image


Oh wow. That puts BTR between .5 and 1" of QPF.
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#4903 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:53 pm

In about 10 minutes we should have the output from the GFS to get really specific details by area.
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#4904 Postby windnrain » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:53 pm

That was about as good a run of the GFS as I could have hoped for.
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#4905 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:59 pm

For once, living in south baton rouge may pay off. Possibly more QPF. Just got to hope we aren't too far south for a good changeover to snow.
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#4906 Postby HurriGuy » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:01 pm

just a side note

GFS doing well with placement of ULL over Baja California in real time. Hopefully everything else follows good timing.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4907 Postby Stormnut » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:01 pm

What part of town BigB?
Siegen here
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#4908 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:02 pm

Burbank/Bluebonnet. I assume that is south. What would you consider it? Very near Oak Hills.
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#4909 Postby HurriGuy » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:05 pm

They have me listed in Prairieville, but really more to Port Vincent.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4910 Postby windnrain » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:05 pm

Garden district here!

Entergy reporting possible 3-5 days without power:

http://www.entergy.com/news_room/newsre ... NR_ID=2846
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#4911 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:10 pm

Dew points really crashing. 26*F at KMOB and at or below 0*F inland. That should set the stage for very effective evaporative cooling tomorrow.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4912 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:13 pm

Mobile forecast office mentioned in a discussion update that dew points were crashing lower than expected, and below zero dewpoints were just north of the area. Basically. Their point being that it lends credence to the super cooled lower atmosphere once precip starts.

If dew points really are in the teens on the coast when this precip moves in, it seems a no brainer they will be getting sleet and freezing rain in an upper 20s lower atmosphere.

For example, last friday the forecast for Pascagoula area was 40 and the surface freezing line on models were a good bit north of there...but With precip and wet bulbing the temp hovered around 32 with sleet and freezing rain.
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Re:

#4913 Postby Stormnut » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:19 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Burbank/Bluebonnet. I assume that is south. What would you consider it? Very near Oak Hills.


Yeah that's south BR
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#4914 Postby CaneCurious » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:23 pm

Well our local met just said that the GFS and Euro are more aggressive with how much frozen precip we will get but their Precisioncast model backed off quite a bit. I guess we will see
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#4915 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:25 pm

I am not saying it can't be right but if I had to trust anything it would be the GFS, NAM and EURO over their in-house model. Unless their model has some massive success rates that can rival GFS and NAM.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4916 Postby windnrain » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:26 pm

windnrain wrote:
HurriGuy wrote:Image


Oh wow. That puts BTR between .5 and 1" of QPF.


Beaumont looks like between .1 and .25 of QPF. That would be either a lot of ice, or 2.5 inches of snow if we use a 10x conversion rate. Beaumont certainly looks to be seeing some frozen precip!
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#4917 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:29 pm

Oh, no, not the Precisioncast!! :eek:
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4918 Postby MGC » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:34 pm

Less than 24 hours out now so the models should be ball park. Last Friday the models got it wrong here on the Miss Coast. We got down to around 30 due to wet bulbing the models didn't account for.....with the dry air moving down tonight, I might suspect the same thing will occur tomorrow when the precipt start falling and evaporates into the dry air over most of the region. We should quickly get below freezing. By 11pm Friday night, my car was coated with ice. Also, the models didn't forecast the amount of QPF we got. We will have to see how they do. I'm still a bit gun shy....I've seen too many times when a winter weather forecast busts big time down here......MGC
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Re: Deep South Winterwx Discussion

#4919 Postby Steve » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:38 pm

Breck downplayed effects on the Southshore during the 9 o'clock news, but I didn't watch him at 10. He showed one radar model that mostly just showed a little rain with most out of here in the afternoon. Then he ran vipir which painted some frozen precip bands across sela and swms. GFS shows the second burst off the mouth of the mississippi River. So as it should be, the effects on this side the lake are a tough call.
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#4920 Postby WXfan212 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:44 pm

Dewpoint/Temp finally starting to drop steadily now thought it would drop a bit earlier tonight but its happening now so, time to see what happens. Personally i'm hoping for more snow than ice but, fear i'm a bit to far south and we'll see a bit more of what we saw last friday versus the 08' snow.
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