Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today as a trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 600
TO 1000 MILES EAST AND EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK..

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE WITH THE EAST NORTHEAST
FLOW OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST COASTAL
PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY TRACES WERE OBSERVED IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TENUOUS DRY SLOT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND A DEEPENING
MOIST LAYER THAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN THE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT PERSISTS
EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THAT FLOW.
ALSO TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL AID SOME SHOWER FORMATION...MAINLY ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF PUERTO RICO WHERE TALLER MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND BLOCK RAIN FROM A DRYER SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS
SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO FORM IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY UNCHARACTERISTIC RISE IN THE
LIFTED INDEX TO LEVELS ABOVE 1.5 THAT PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO WARMING AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
FORMS NEAR 500 MB OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AND DRYER MID LEVELS
SHOULD LOWER SHOWER ACTIVITY OR AT LEAST KEEP IT MORE CONFINED TO
THE WINDWARD COASTS. FRONTAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED OVER
THE TOP OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DOES NOT REACH THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL VCSH.
WIND BLO FL150 ENE 15-20 KT. OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CAME DOWN SHARPLY AT THE OUTER BUOY FROM A PEAK
OVER 10 FEET SOME 30 HOURS AGO TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. FOR THIS REASON SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
CANCELED AND SEAS WERE LOWERED TO JUST 7 FEET IN THE NORTHERN
OUTER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SINCE WINDS WILL RELAX A
LITTLE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...IF ONLY FOR ABOUT A DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 83 74 / 50 60 50 50
STT 84 74 85 76 / 40 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE WEST AND A TUTT LOW TO THE EAST. AT MID LEVEL...THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...ERODING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEEP
TROUGH PATTERN EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL INDUCE A FEW
PERTURBATIONS IN THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THESE PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BRISK NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS PUSHED BRIEF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. BUT IN GENERAL...
CONDITIONS IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER CONVERGENCE
PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS DOWNWIND OF SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
1.5-1.6 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH...
MOST OF THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME...THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE USVI...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 06Z WED THEN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE FREQ/NMRS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS DECOUPLE AROUND SUNSET AND PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW WITH ENE
WINDS 15G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 7 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE AMZ710.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 71 83 / 50 50 40 50
STT 74 85 74 84 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST TUE FEB 4 2014

.UPDATE...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE DOMINANT TONIGHT...BRINGING
WITH IT...PASSING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING
RAPIDLY...THEREFORE...LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED. LATEST 05/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF ONLY 1.16 INCHES...WITH VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT
TOMORROW...BUT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST WED FEB 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OUT OF A TROUGH SITTING ACROSS 20 NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE LOW RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. MID LEVELS MOISTEN TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE AFTER THAT
UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND MOVES
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROUGH RE-DEVELOPS LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOWERS WERE TRACKED AT ABOUT 24
KNOTS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
EVEN MORE MOISTURE IN SHALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS EVEN
TO THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES FROM AROUND 1.2 INCHES TO 1.5
INCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO RISE FROM NOW THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE RELATIVELY HIGH...FOR WINTER...ON
SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE MODEST FOR
ALL AREAS. MOISTURE DIMINISHES UNSTEADILY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW ABOUT 20 KFT AND
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPTING THE SHADOW PRODUCED BY THE FLOW OVER
PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
WIDELY SPACED THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
MEASURABLE RAIN ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY. NEVERTHELESS PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE ARE ALSO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ARE BEING MODERATED ON THE
NORTH COAST BY STRONG FLOW WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY WINDS AS
STRONG AS 40 KNOTS AT 600 MB. HENCE SAN JUAN WILL BE ENJOYING
HIGHS NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 25 KFT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA INCR UPSTREAM AND WL BRFLY MOV ACRS ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 05/06Z AND 05/12Z XCPT TJPS/TJMZ...CURRENTLY MOVG WSW 22 KT.
THESE SHOWERS WL LWR CONDS TO MVFR BUT BRIEFLY. WIND BLO FL150 ENE 15-35 KT
BCMG E 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND THE LAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD BE LOWERED BY 6 AM
AST THURSDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER. 7 FOOT SEAS RETURN TO THE
NORTHERN OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT IN MANY WATERS MARINERS WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 84 73 / 80 60 60 60
STT 87 74 85 75 / 70 70 70 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST WED FEB 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD PR TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD THU THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD PR TONIGHT AND ADVECT HIGHER TPW AIR ON ENE
WINDS INCREASING THE RISK SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. FRI
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY AND THUS THE DAY WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRI
NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS/STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. WINDS DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON AS BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST AND CDFNT MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLC. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS STRONG SFC HIGH EXITS THE NRN
MID ATLC AND BUILDS EWD WITH TIME. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH COAST NEXT
TUE-THU.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH PASSING SHRA BRIEFLY AFFECTING THEM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DEVELOPING SHRA WILL AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJMZ THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS FROM THE EAST TO E-NE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...DECREASING AT NIGHT TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS...INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 06/13Z TO 10-15KTS AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 THRU SAT. WINDS DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT THRU MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SVRL FIRES WERE SEEN EARLIER ON 88D BASE
REFLECTIVITY AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENT (CC) DUAL POL PRODUCTS
OVER SALINAS...VILLALBA AND CAROLINA. THINGS MOISTEN UP TONIGHT
THRU FRI MITIGATING FIRE DANGER NEXT SVRL DAYS. POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS TUE-THU OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 83 77 81 / 70 70 70 70
STT 77 78 77 78 / 70 70 70 70

[abajan]

There are currently thunderstorms with frequent lightning just south of my location. This is most unusual for February.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The unusual rainy pattern for Febuary continues today thru Friday as troughs are nearby causing scattered showers to move thru the area of the Eastern Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST THU FEB 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA IS GENERATING NORTHERLY FLOW. A WEAK JET WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN APPROACHES.
THIS RIDGE WILL PASS ON MONDAY LEAVING WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
15/00Z.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BUT
WEAKENS GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AFTER THE
WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
ATLANTIC FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION CREATING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BUT LOW PRESSURES
CONTINUALLY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF
FLORIDA WEAKENING THE GRADIENTS IN THE LOCAL AREA SOMEWHAT DURING
THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO DRIVE THROUGH ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW WITH
SHALLOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO PEPPER THE RADAR SCREEN OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SOME SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS FAR WEST AS ARECIBO. A TOTAL OF 0.48 INCHES HAD
FALLEN AT SAN JUAN`S LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT SINCE 6 PM AST LAST
NIGHT AND RADAR HINTED THAT OVER ONE INCH MAY HAVE FALLEN IN PARTS
OF HUMACAO AND LAS PIEDRAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. MOIST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AND WINDWARD COASTS AND NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO MANY PLACES IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK JET AT UPPER LEVELS AND WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MORE SHOWERS THAN EXPERIENCED
WEDNESDAY OR TODAY. POCKETS OF DRIER AIR TO MOVE THROUGH LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WILL REDUCE SHOWERS...BUT THE GFS SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AT 850 MB TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...12/00-12Z AND EXPECT THIS TO BRING ANOTHER UP TICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALL IN ALL WINDWARD SLOPES WILL HAVE REDUCED RAINFALL
AFTER SATURDAY BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO GO RAIN-FREE FOR LONG. PARTS OF
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY RAIN-FREE HOWEVER
CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ARE AFFECTING THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THESE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE VICINITY OF TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AND NORTHERN TJBQ. SHRA/MVFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS FROM THE
EAST TO E-NE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE SURFACE WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 20 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...STEADY TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST ARE KEEPING SEAS IN THE
OPEN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE DURING THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 82 72 / 70 70 70 70
STT 85 73 85 73 / 70 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

There are currently thunderstorms with frequent lightning just south of my location. This is most unusual for February.

Puerto Rico has seen above normal rainfall so far in Febuary that is supposed to be one of the driest months of the year.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The unusual rainy Febuary will continue for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU FEB 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA IS GENERATING A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A WEAK JET WILL
PASS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICK AND ACROSS WESTERN PR...THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED. THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN OF PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVE TO THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE TO
BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE
PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU 06Z TONIGHT MOST PLACES. SHOWERS BECOME MORE
FREQUENT AND HEAVIER LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AT JSJ...USVI AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS AFTER 06Z-09Z THEN AT JMZ FRI AFTERNOON.
TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLAND TERMINALS FOR NOW JUST HAVE VCSH.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET. SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 81 / 70 70 70 70
STT 73 84 75 84 / 70 70 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will continue to move thru the PR and VI area today thru tomorrow.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST FRI FEB 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEARLY STATIONARY
BRINGING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE LESS THAN ONE
INCH. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE IN PLACE CLOSE TO
THE LOCAL AREA. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER LOCALLY.

IS NOT UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS LOOKS DRIER...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
MEANTIME...AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF TIST...TISX AND TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST
07/16Z. THEN...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 07/17Z-21Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHRA. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL150. WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...SMAL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 72 / 70 70 70 20
STT 85 74 84 76 / 70 60 60 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST FRI FEB 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER ANASCO
AREA BUT SO FAR HEAVY RAIN IS THE EXTENT OF ITS WRATH. BELIEVE
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 500 PM THEN DIE OFF DUE TO
COOLING FROM RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME DRY ADVECTION
ONGOING BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF
MAINLAND PR.

THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN ON SATELLITE WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLAND...MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
THOUGH THERE ARE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE USVI AND ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF THERE EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO BE LATE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR MORE SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WE
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST AND THE JUICY
AIR STAYS NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. +SHRA
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ UNTIL AROUND 07/22Z...WHILE VCSH AFFECTS
MOST OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10
TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY UNTIL 07/23Z...BECOMING SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 08/13Z BUT REMAINING
EASTERLY. SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PR BTWN 08/17Z-21Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAINS
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AS INDICATED AT BUOYS HAVE NOT FALLEN TODAY. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN STATUS IN NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER A COUPLE OF GALE
STRENGTH STORM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL SHOVE THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...THEREBY WEAKENING
THE LOCAL TRADE WINDS BY LATE SAT. SO KEEPING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH SAT NIGHT STILL LOOKS FINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 81 71 82 / 60 60 20 20
STT 74 84 75 84 / 60 60 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today with a drying trend starting on Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 AM AST SAT FEB 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EAST AND WILL WEAKENS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...AS PATCHES OF LOW MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS WITH RIDGE PATTERN
BUILDING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO INDUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY SUNDAY. A DRYING TREND
WILL THEN PREVAIL WITH FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
NEXT WORK WEEK AS RIDGE PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS BETWEEN 0-3 KM AGL WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS DEEP SURFACE
LOW NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...EXIT THE U.S COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE WINDS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
BRIEF SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST AND TJSJ UNTIL
08/14Z. THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PR MAY
AFFECT TJBQ AND TJMZ BTWN 08/17Z-21Z...PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FM THE EAST
AT AROUND 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 72 / 50 30 30 20
STT 84 74 85 75 / 50 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST SAT FEB 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS IT WEAKENS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES
THROUGH SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERAL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS ONCE AGAIN CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE MORNING
AND A FEW STREAMERS FROM THE NORTHERN USVI WERE A NUISANCE TO THE FOLKS
IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO AS PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AFFECTED THAT AREA.

AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LIKE
THE ONES SEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY...ARE LOWER BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECTS COMBINES WITH THE
LOWER BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE.

STARTING LATE MONDAY...A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA AND MOISTURE DECREASES. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN IS TO BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING
VCSH AT MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. +SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ/TJBQ UNTIL AROUND 08/22Z. WINDS TO REMAIN FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY UNTIL 08/23Z...BECOMING
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AFTER 09/13Z WHILE REMAINING
EASTERLY. SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PR BTWN 09 /17Z- 21Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MTN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 7
FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS WILL BE UP TO
21 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6
FEET. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 82 72 82 / 30 30 20 20
STT 74 85 76 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Drier weather will dominate for the next few days with only isolated showers moving thru PR and VI.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS IT WEAKENS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES THROUGH TODAY...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE
IN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW BRUSHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN WITH THE
TRADES THROUGH TODAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR MID NEXT WEEK...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR RESULTING IN LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 09/17Z-22Z. LLVL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ESE AT 10-15KT BELOW FL100.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING SEAS BELOW 7 FEET
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TODAY....THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 72 / 20 20 20 10
STT 84 74 85 76 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN FEB 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS IT WEAKENS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY AND THERE IT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FOLLOWING DAYS...SLIGHTLY
REDUCING THE TRADE WIND SPEED OVER THE AREA. DRIER AIR IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED
AS THEY STREAMED OFF THE USVI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...PRECISELY WHERE THERE IS MORE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AND WHERE THE CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING AT THE MOMENT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THERE SEEMS TO BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE ABOUT THE SAME
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
EAST...ALBEIT WEAKER. THEREFORE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...TUESDAY HAS A LESSER CHANCE OF RAIN AS EVEN DRIER AIR WILL
START TO FILTER IN.

BEYOND TUESDAY THINGS LOOK PRETTY STABLE. UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES
OVER THE AREA AND EVEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN. ACCORDING TO
GUIDANCE...PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. AREAS OF ISOLD CONVECTION FCST MAINLY ACROSS CTRL AND WEST
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR...MAY LEAD TO PRDS OF MVFR AND LCL MTN TOP
OBSCR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND PASSING SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVR AND VCTY
TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL AT LEAST 09/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE ESE AT 10-15KT...WITH OCNL HIGHER SFC GUSTS MAINLY SHRA ACTIVITY.
NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AND WILL BE GENERALLY BE AT 3 TO 5
FEET WITH UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 18 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 84 / 20 20 10 20
STT 74 84 76 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail today and thru most of this week in PR and VI with only isolated showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST MON FEB 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...IT IS ALSO DISPLACES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. AZORES HIGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION EARLY
IN THE WEEK. A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITTE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND NEAR ST CROIX EARLY THIS MORNING...
WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. DOPPLER
RADAR DATA DETECTED ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF CULEBRA. BASICALLY...THE FORECAST AREA HAVE REMAINED
UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SINCE MIDNIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANGE OF RAIN
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA...LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. UNDER
A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS AND A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP RAINFALL
WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. SHOWERS IF ANY...WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER LEEWARD SLOPES IN THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PR RESULTING IN LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BTWN 10/17Z-22Z. LLVL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ESE AT 10-15KT.

&&

.MARINE... MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A MODERATE CHOP CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 85 73 / 10 0 0 10
STT 84 74 85 75 / 20 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunrise in San Juan.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST MON FEB 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY TO MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SPREAD OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIMITED OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER LAND AT THIS TIME. THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUED TO LOOSEN AND THIS IN TURN CONTINUED TO DECREASE
THE FREQUENCY OF THE TRANSPORT OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED LOCAL SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WITH SOME LOCAL AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CLOUD FORMATION MAINLY ACROSS MAINLAND PUERTO RICO...
MEANWHILE A FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS
WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED.

&&

.DISCUSSION... VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY AT ALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THEREFORE A MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHERE CONDITIONS ARE SO FAR EXPECTED
TO BE EVEN DRIER. THE EXCEPTION IS ON LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE
A BRIEF SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD BRING A WEAK SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER SO FAR MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY LEAVING FAIR WEATHER SKIES ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...STILL
LOOKING FOR ONLY LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS PUERTO RICO RICO AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS. ALL IN ALL A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. VERY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER PARTS OF WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF LOCAL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS MVFR CONDS OF SHORT
DURATION... MAINLY AROUND TJMZ TIL 10/21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE ESE AT 10-15KT WITH OCNL SFC WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
22 KTS IN SOME COASTAL.AREAS

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WHERE A SLIGHT WIND CHOP
CONTINUED DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS. EXPECT
SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS AND 17 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE
REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 83 / 0 0 10 10
STT 74 85 75 85 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
919 PM AST MON FEB 10 2014

.UPDATE...UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DETECTED ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...BUT NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LANDS AREAS SO
FAR THIS EVENING. AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE REGION...CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. HOWEVER...LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THIS LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MORE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA AND MOISTURE DECREASES
RAPIDLY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS RELATIVELY DRIER
PATTERN IS TO BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...ONLY
SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES WERE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS
AND REASONING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few isolated showers in the afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOST OF THE WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL REMAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SOME PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL MOSLTY SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITTE IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. LOCAL ISLANDS REMAINED
MOSTLY CLEAR ALL NIGHT...EXCEPT IN YABUCOA WHERE A VERY LIGHT
SHOWER MOVES INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. LATEST SOUNDING DATA
AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS
UPSTREAM OF PR AND USVI. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE TODAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
SATURDAY...LEADING TO SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. UNDER A GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS AND A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP...SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTERNOON SHOWERS...IF ANY...WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER LEEWARD SIDE OF PR. THE EXCEPTION
IS ON THURSDAY WHERE A BRIEF SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEN...THE DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS ALL TAF SITES XCPT FOR A
BRIEF SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS AT JMZ. WINDS 15G20KT WITH AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT XCPT AROUND 10KT AT JMZ.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH 20-FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH MOST OF THE
WEEK. MIN_RH`S WILL HOVER AROUND 50% TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...IF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HOLDS. OVERALL...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REST OF
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 84 72 / 0 10 10 20
STT 84 74 84 75 / 10 20 20 20