Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

EVERYONE --

We have some conflicting information with regards to whether or not WeatherBell graphics will be allowed to be posted here on Storm2K. I will be visiting with fellow moderators and admins on the matter. Hope to have guidance for you all in the next few days. Until then, please do not post ANY images from WeatherBell. Thank you for complying with this forum's current rules.

[TrekkerCC]

So if the el Nino starts early summer could it extend the severe weather season here? June is a dangerous month for hail. (Only when we get storms)

Okay, it is not winter, but what I remember from one summer el nino was that we would have occasional hybrid-tropicish (cutoff) upper level lows dumping a lot of rain on us. One weekend event (don't remember exactly when) we had like 4.00" over an entire day. It was crazy. El Ninos tend to promote upper level patterns that prevents development of the dreaded death "heat" ridge over the southern U.S. and bring us much temperature relief (80s and 90s instead of 100s) during the summer.

[Texas Snowman]

"@BigJoeBastardi: ECWMF starts southern stream next week. Arctic wave Tuesday,beware phasing with weekend system.Storms, rumors of storms pattern coming back."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

"@BigJoeBastardi: ECWMF starts southern stream next week. Arctic wave Tuesday,beware phasing with weekend system.Storms, rumors of storms pattern coming back."

Saw that

[texas1836]

"@BigJoeBastardi: ECWMF starts southern stream next week. Arctic wave Tuesday,beware phasing with weekend system.Storms, rumors of storms pattern coming back."

Saw that

Like that!

[South Texas Storms]

The storms went all around me here in College Station. Oh well. Nice to see the towering cumulus clouds again. I'm more optimistic for next week.

[TheProfessor]

I know Accuweather is not very accurate, especially with temperatures. But it had severe thunderstorms for next Friday and it had us receiving over an inch of rain next Friday night.

[BigB0882]

I know Accuweather is not very accurate, especially with temperatures. But it had severe thunderstorms for next Friday and it had us receiving over an inch of rain next Friday night.

I think you put it nicely. Lol. They go almost exclusively by climatogy if I remember correctly.

[wxman57]

New meteogram from the 12Z GFS for the D-FW area. It's indicating a few light freezes the first week of March but nothing significant the weekend of March 1-2. That's not to say you can now trust that the GFS has the right solution, it just points out the extreme variability from run to run in the GFS. The Euro has been a bit more consistent in keeping most of the cold air north and east of Texas. 12Z EC deterministic has a low down to 27-28 in Dallas-Ft. Worth on March 1st and 32 on March 2nd. Ensembles have brief cold reaching TX on March 1-2 then gradual warming as the cold air retreats to the east.

[Ntxw]

The good news is that California will be getting some rain. Usually that puts us in line next, likely resulting from the SOI dip that began last week. Split flow in the NE Pacific is a good sign, look for a storm to be suppressed next week crossing from Cal-TX-Carolinas type track late next week. Severe weather doesn't look to good because there's virtually no instability, but long way to go still.

Beyond truncation Ensembles keep the Aleutian low going and PV over North America. Small hints of possible -NAO may try to get going past first week of March and the AO to dive in tandem.

CFSv2 today sends the core of the cold down the Great Plains vs over the Great lakes. You better watch it with that omega block, it's not an an open 5h high.

[ravyrn]

I found a link @ NOAA site that puts the National Snow Analyses as an overlay on Google Earth.

Check this out!

[Lagreeneyes03]

New meteogram from the 12Z GFS for the D-FW area. It's indicating a few light freezes the first week of March but nothing significant the weekend of March 1-2. That's not to say you can now trust that the GFS has the right solution, it just points out the extreme variability from run to run in the GFS. The Euro has been a bit more consistent in keeping most of the cold air north and east of Texas. 12Z EC deterministic has a low down to 27-28 in Dallas-Ft. Worth on March 1st and 32 on March 2nd. Ensembles have brief cold reaching TX on March 1-2 then gradual warming as the cold air retreats to the east.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx12zfeb20.gif

Doesn't seem like much of a warming as the temps go down again and stay well below normal for that whole week according to this meteogram. Ick, I love snow but I'm done with winter. I'm with you, bring the heat. If there's no snow, any temp below 60 is wasted.

[TheProfessor]

New meteogram from the 12Z GFS for the D-FW area. It's indicating a few light freezes the first week of March but nothing significant the weekend of March 1-2. That's not to say you can now trust that the GFS has the right solution, it just points out the extreme variability from run to run in the GFS. The Euro has been a bit more consistent in keeping most of the cold air north and east of Texas. 12Z EC deterministic has a low down to 27-28 in Dallas-Ft. Worth on March 1st and 32 on March 2nd. Ensembles have brief cold reaching TX on March 1-2 then gradual warming as the cold air retreats to the east.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx12zfeb20.gif

Doesn't seem like much of a warming as the temps go down again and stay well below normal for that whole week according to this meteogram. Ick, I love snow but I'm done with winter. I'm with you, bring the heat. If there's no snow, any temp below 60 is wasted.

What this looks like to me is that if the models are under doing the cold by 5-10 degrees. Then we might be looking at an ice/snow event that could last for entire week. That would be remarkable for march and would be the bride and groom needed to top off what has already been an unusually cold winter.

[Ntxw]

Just look at how in a matter of a few days it has gotten much colder on the models (specifically GEFS on this), yet aren't even in range yet for them to see the real cold.



Roughly the same period



Is that not crazy or what? From below normal to very, very cold

I suspect the blocking over NW NA will end up even stronger thus an even bigger push as the event draws closer.

[Texas Snowman]

As Wxman57 reminded a few days ago, when it is cold in Alaska, it usually isn't cold here.

But when it's warm in Alaska...

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

and did you Tireman have your nose in the books all today???

btw I'd swear one or more of your cohorts takes over your account at times!!!

[vbhoutex]

The storms went all around me here in College Station. Oh well. Nice to see the towering cumulus clouds again. I'm more optimistic for next week.

Had some developing severe move across my area of W. Houston with some strong (and weird)CG. Looks like about 0.50" of rain. The strange cg hit about 1/4 mile from me and then it apparently jumped across 4 more light poles or similar with 4 more VERY LOUD reports of thunder. Never seen it do that before.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

.27 of rain here today. I'll take it.

[TheProfessor]

0.00 inches of rain today!

Thats not going to cut it!

[Ntxw]

What a fun run of the GFS huh? Big ridge in Alaska and storms digging into the west coast. Classic look dragging that trough east back southwest, usually spells mischief. Got to love southwest lows spinning behind cold air masses.