Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Great weather on this Sunday in Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST SUN FEB 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
WERE REMOVED FROM THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SJU/12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWED A
DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA...WITH TPW VALUES BETWEEN 1.3 IN AND
0.83 IN. UNDER THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING...AND
LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE. FOR TONIGHT...TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...HOWEVER
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED.

[Macrocane]

Hi everybody!

I've updated the Central American cold surges thread with the observations from the January 24-27 event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.php?mode=reply&f=22&t=106879

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON FEB 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
ASSOCIATED JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD UPPER FLOW UP TO 80 KNOTS OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
WILL WEAKEN TODAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...
THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WAS
GENERALLY MINIMAL. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
MAINLY DRY WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AREAS
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL BRING FEW PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG PRD. ISOLD-SCT PASSING TRADE
WIND -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS WITH SCT-BKN L/LVL CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW FL020-FL080 THEN
MOSTLY CLR ABV. ALSO PSBL VCSH FOR TIST...TISX...TJNR...TJSJ...AS
WELL AS TNCM AND TKPK TIL AT LEAST 24/12Z. WINDS WILL BE FM THE EAST
AT ABOUT 10- 15 KTS BLO FL200. SFC WNDS LGT/VRB TO CALM TIL AT LEAST
24/14Z. AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR MAY LEAD TO ISOLD-SCT
SHRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 24/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
TODAY...FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 83 72 / 30 20 20 30
STT 84 73 84 74 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Forest fire in Southern Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON FEB 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING
THE MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MOST OF
THE WEEK...EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHEN A PERTURBATION ALOFT WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...DRY
AIR ADVECTION LATE THIS MORNING HELPED TO DISSIPATE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROPPED FROM 1.38 AT 12Z TO 1.1 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE IS 15-20% BELOW NORMAL...MODERATE SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR...PRODUCING
TCU CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST HAVE PUSHED THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...BASICALLY OVER MAYAGUEZ...HORMIGUEROS... SAN GERMAN
AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CABO ROJO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF NEAR SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. UNDER A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS AND
A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DESTABILIZE SLIGHTLY
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC.
THIS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS IN THE ISLAND`S VICINITY. WE CAN`T RULED OUT...AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD SLOPES AND OCCASIONAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHRA POSSIBLE AT JMZ UNTIL 24/22Z. WINDS WILL
BE FM THE EAST AT 15-20 KTS BLO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS OF 3-5
FEET CAN BE EXPETECTED. WAVE HEIGHT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
HAVE RESULTED IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. 20-FOOT WINDS HAVE BEEN
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT IN THE CAMP SANTIAGO
AREA AND 50-55 PERCENT IN THE CABO ROJO AREA. SEE THE RFDSJU FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 87 / 40 40 20 20
STT 74 84 73 84 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST TUE FEB 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING A
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY
MINIMAL. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MAINLY DRY
WEATHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AREAS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL BRING FEW
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PASSING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED UNTIL 25/14Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT
10-15KTS AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
AFTERNOON SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PR...WHICH MAY CAUSE VCSH ACROSS
TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FOR TJBQ AFTER 25/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.
ELSEWHERE...SEAS OF 3-5 FEET CAN BE EXPETECTED. WAVE HEIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW TO MEDIUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES COMBINED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS. 20-FOOT WINDS
HAVE BEEN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 PERCENT IN THE CAMP SANTIAGO
AREA AND BETWEEN 55-60 PERCENT IN THE CABO ROJO AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 72 / 40 20 20 20
STT 84 73 84 73 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST TUE FEB 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. AN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RISK OF SHOWERS
INCREASES AS THE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI THIS MORNING. IN CONTRAST...CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO...A CLOUD STREAMER DOWNWIND
OF EL YUNQUE WAS ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA. WITH THIS STREAMER...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF TRUJILLO ALTO...SAN JUAN...BAYAMON AND GUAYNABO.
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS
UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THEN...OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEN... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. IN AT THE SAME TIME...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
DROP NEAR ONE INCH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH MVFR CIGS AT JMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 85 / 20 20 10 20
STT 73 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

More forest fires are igniting in Southern PR as the dry weather rolls on.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will continue to dominate today in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST WED FEB 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE TAIL OF A MODEST JET. A RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
DOMINANT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA UNTIL MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND BUILDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FRIDAY...BUT IS FORCED BACK BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTH OF
THE AREA THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS IS NEARLY
ABSENT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED WEST OF THE
MEDITERRANEAN SEA THROWS A RIDGE OUT TOWARD THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THIS RIDGE IS DIVIDED BY LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST AND PASSES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS BARELY FAZED.
NEARLY NORTHEAST FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGE
WILL YIELD TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD CLUSTERS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BUT THE SHOWERS UNDER THEM HAVE BEEN LITTLE
ENHANCED. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE PASSED SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OVER PUERTO RICO AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE BY 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS AT 600 MB BOUNCING UP TO 20 PERCENT ONLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE LEVEL. MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO APPEARS TO INCREASE FOR A
SHORT TIME AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE SOUTH COAST DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE GETTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANY TIME SOON...BUT FOR NOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR RED FLAG
WARNINGS THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 26/13Z.
THEREAFTER...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW
PR...WHICH WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL RANGE AND SHRA IN AND VCNTY TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 26/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE 3 TO 5 FOOT LEVEL
IN MOST OF THE EXPOSED WATERS IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS IN THE LEE OF PUERTO RICO. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
NEXT MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 71 / 30 10 20 20
STT 85 74 86 74 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunrise in PR with moon and Venus complementing the view.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST WED FEB 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS POLAR TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY TODAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF ST. CROIX. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION LOCATED OVER THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION FOR
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE USVI THIS
EVENING AND PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SHALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR. THEN...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY...
REACHING THE MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ON FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN GENERAL...GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
REMAINS VERY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA IN TIST...
TISX AND TJPS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS
AROUND 15 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 73 83 / 10 20 0 10
STT 74 84 74 85 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Another forest fire in Southern Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU FEB 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A JET RAPIDLY MOVES EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TODAY. FLOW THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK TROUGH TRANSITING
THE AREA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH AND A JET FORMING
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE IS
SEEN AT MID LEVELS UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES
ACROSS TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS LEFT OVER FROM AN OLD FRONT...MOVES
NORTHEAST DIVIDING THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT PASSING RAPIDLY JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT KEPT SHOWERS
TO A MINIMUM UNTIL ABOUT 3 AM AST. A PATCH OF MOISTURE OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT EXTENDED BACK TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN
MOVED INTO PUERTO RICO AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVED TO THE EAST
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO GROW. SHOWERS THAT MAY HAVE REACHED ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ON THE SLOPES OF MAUNABO AND
YABUCOA THEN MOVED INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO ENHANCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE REST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER IN SAN JUAN AND THE NORTHERN COAST DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS ON MONDAY AIDED BY
A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE AT ALL LEVELS. AT THE MOMENT THE
DRIEST HOURS OF THE WEEK APPEAR TO BE THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN DRY SLOTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY ALSO HAVE
SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER AS WELL...WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS
TO BE CONSIDERED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MOISTURE LEVELS ON MONDAY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AND SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT PASSING TRADE WIND -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS COASTAL
WATERS...TJPS...TIST AND TISX AT LEAST UNTIL 27/23Z...AFTER 27/18Z
SHRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO TJBQ AND TJMZ. VARIABLE AND CALM WINDS
TIL 27/13Z. ESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 27/13Z
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING A NORTHEAST SWELL WITH 5 TO 6
FOOT SEAS MOVING IN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 83 72 / 20 10 10 30
STT 85 74 85 72 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU FEB 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
THEN BEGIN TO ERODE SAT AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS
THE ATLC. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD LATE MON THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRYING ALREADY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY BOTH FRI AND SAT.
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EXITS THE MID ATLC COAST SAT ERODING THE RIDGE
LEADING TO WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND PROMOTING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MON.
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS MON THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOKS WEAK AROUND 660 MB AND
WON`T BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY INHIBIT CLOUDS AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY WET EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS AROUND 15 KT DURING
DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI DUE
TO LOWERING HUMIDITIES UNDER STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING 20-FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH
RH IN THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA AROUND 40 PERCENT AND 50-55 PERCENT
IN CABO ROJO. FOR NOW...WE PLAN TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FRI MORNING AFTER A LOOK AT THE 28/12Z RAWINDSONDE DATA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 84 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 72 84 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Only a few showers are expected today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIP
EAST AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND. THEN A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK AND OVER THE ABC ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY DRY EXCEPT FOR A WEAK TROUGH
THAT COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE COMES IN ON A
WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IS GONE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINS
A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA
WEAKLY REBUILDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
EL YUNQUE...A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT THE AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN AND
SIX HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN FREDERIKSTED ON SAINT CROIX. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING BRISKLY TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA
AND SUPPLY MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...THERE WILL BE A MODEST DRYING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN
THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN. MOISTURE FADES AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OUT
OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE FROM FRIDAY ON...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR BETTER COHERENCE
IN THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRONG LOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS WELL NORTH OF US FOR THE MORE SUBTLE CHANGES THIS WILL
BRING FOR US. NEVERTHELESS VERY LIMITED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA WILL OCCUR IN AND AROUND THE TAF SITES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ AND TJBQ BEFORE 28/18Z. THEN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR...AND MAY CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND BRIEF MVFR OVER
WESTERN PR INCLUDING TJMZ. ESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 10-15
KNOTS AFTER 28/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING WINDS...SEAS ARE CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TWO SWELL
TRAINS...ONE FROM THE EAST AND ONE FROM THE NORTH...BOTH OF 9 TO
10 SECOND PERIODS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CAUSE SEAS
TO REACH 6 FEET IN SOME PLACES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 87 73 / 30 20 20 10
STT 85 72 84 73 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE THROUGH
SAT THEN WEAKEN THROUGH MON AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE FL
PENINSULA PRESSES AGAINST IT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRYING WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE. SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EXITING
THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BY SUN WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE
AREA. WINDS WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY SUN FAVORING SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION WITH CONVECTION CLUSTERING OVER SOUTHWEST PR ON A NNE
STEERING FLOW. CONVECTION CONTINUES ON MON BUT EXPECTED OVR WRN PR
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE FROM THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS
LATE MON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO GRADUAL DRYING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO WX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL VERY DRY SAT BUT WINDS DIMINISH A BIT MORE.
MOISTURE RETURNS SUN WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST PR.
CONVECTION CLUSTERS OVR WRN PR MON. GRADUAL DRYING EXPECTED TUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 87 73 / 30 10 10 0
STT 85 72 84 73 / 20 10 10 0

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunset in Culebra ,Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Only a few isolated showers are expected today in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...MODELS STILL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND A WEAK...BUT FAST MOVING...SHORT WAVE COMING FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...SPREADING ITS
INFLUENCE NORTHWEST OVER US.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
RETREATS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA MID
WEEK. MID LEVELS ARE DRY EXCEPT FOR VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LEAVING A PRESSURE WEAKNESS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S
VIRGIN ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF PUERTO
RICO AND MOST OF VIEQUES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A PATCH
OF MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WE
WILL SEE CLEARING DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THAT ANOTHER PATCH OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
THE GFS SHOWING A PEAK IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.4 INCHES
AT THAT TIME. THE GFS IS SHOWING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AS THIS FLOW MEETS SEA BREEZES
FROM THE SOUTH AND RISING AIR OVER THE WARM SOUTHERN SLOPES. THE
GFS CONFIRMS THIS WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
INDICATED BY THE LIFTED INDEX NEAR MINUS TWO AT 02/18Z. DRIER AIR
WILL INVADE THE 850-700 MB LAYER AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE TROUGH
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND WILL INCREASE THE
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE
STABLE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEXT WEEKEND AS WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND SHOWERS NEARLY DISAPPEAR. THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
BUT WITH LITTLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EXCEPT WARM AND MOIST AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NW PR. EASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 01/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL TODAY AND
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SWELL FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REACH
6 FEET IN A FEW PLACES IN THE ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS
SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS WEEK IN THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 74 / 10 10 20 0
STT 84 73 84 73 / 10 20 10 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL KEEP THE TRADE WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TROUGH ON MONDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES AND CLOUDINESS INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THE USVI REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW
CLOUDS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN.

THIS CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
START MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AS THEY WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY EVENING.

THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE AND SO WILL THE WINDS. THIS WILL GIVE US A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CAUSE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NW PR.
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO ABOUT 10KT OR LESS AFTER 01/23Z.
ISOL PASSING -SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS AGAIN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING AFTER 02/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SEAS MAINLY AT 2 TO 4 FEET...HOWEVER SWELL FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REACH 6 FEET IN A FEW PLACES IN THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK IN THE
FORECAST AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 80 / 10 20 0 10
STT 73 83 73 82 / 20 10 0 10