stormkite wrote:Ntxw wrote:stormkite wrote:SOI is about the same as 2012
Im still staggered why anyone would be comparing this El nino coming with 1997/98 Super nino.
They are nothing alike, we may get a brief moderate event or we could see the biggest flop in history. Ignore the cold PDO all you like, the strong ones just do not occur in this period no matter how much subsurface warming happens.
The trades are not going to switch, meaning the teleconnection between atmosphere and ocean looks weak at best.
I will wait another month and then I'm tipping the models will jump ship, there is no more heat in the pipeline
SOI is also similar to 2002. Lower than 2009 and 2006 neither fell until summer. Everyone is is entitled to their opinion. Why would you be staggered at the comparisons? This is what the professionals have put out not us. They compare it to 1997 because that is what the weather events did, bursts. Whether it is to continue is anyone's guess. And your statement of strong ones do not occur in cold PDO era (even with the recent spike warm) is not correct. See 1972.
I meant we are in a 25 year cold phase. Yes we are positive atm.
Every cold PDO has positive phases, but overall the behaviour is cold PDO which is why El ninos average 9 months in a cold PDO and La Ninas 21 months.
There is nothing in the analogs that suggests a strong Nino bar 1972/73, even though that one was also brief and about 9 months. So the odds are stacked against it.
You are right in the odds don't have a long lasting El Nino, but honestly, really only the epicly positive PDO+ ones tend to last longer than a year, and some of those even (like 1977-78) were brief
1972-73 is a Super El Nino. 1997-98 is of course, and that lasted ~12 months.
