ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Blown Away]

lets not lose sight of the elephant in the room that as usual, the models are totally busting to date

Can you explain how you see the models busting?

[Ntxw]

Another is 1986-87, which started in the summer but peaked in the summer of 87.

Granted, that was a very interesting El Nino.

This is one of the Nino's I have done very little reading for. Started summer 1986 and lasted all the way through early 1988. It's rarely mentioned, back to back moderate Nino's the second being borderline strong. We were in a perpetual Nino state for a good 19 months. The entire 1987 year saw ONI at 1C or higher. Very rarely do you see Nino's last that long at that strength, most back to backs (there are only a few) have at least one weak one, particularly the second one as residual effect. Most, including the big 3, don't last for more than 12-15 months.

[Yellow Evan]

Another is 1986-87, which started in the summer but peaked in the summer of 87.

Granted, that was a very interesting El Nino.

This is one of the Nino's I have done very little reading for. Started summer 1986 and lasted all the way through early 1988. It's rarely mentioned, back to back moderate Nino's the second being borderline strong. We were in a perpetual Nino state for a good 19 months. Very rarely do you see Nino's last that long at that strength, most back to backs (there are only a few) have at least one weak one, particularly the second one as residual effect. Most, including the big 3, don't last for more than 12-15 months.

The only other true back to back El Ninos were 76-77/77-78, 57-58/58-59, and 68-69/69-70. Granted, the data is limited and I think there was a another in the 20s. It is interesting to note that 2 of the 4 known back to back Ninos were in a cold -PDO era though.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There is a rapidly developing system in the WPAC currently. Check out the topic.

[Kingarabian]

There is a rapidly developing system in the WPAC currently. Check out the topic.

Yep.

Maybe the CFS will got its WWB forecast correct this time.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It intensified to a TS.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño 1+2 significantly warmed up to +0.221°C.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Could a 50 kt storm 1min sustained help enhance the WWB?

[Kingarabian]

Wow.

[Kingarabian]

Could a 50 kt storm 1min sustained help enhance the WWB?

Typoon Isa developed from a disturbance in the monsoon trough near the Caroline Islands on April 12.

Perfect timing for Tropical storm Tapah.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There is now a WWB occurring in the WPAC. CFS got it right, not busting this time Alyono.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Could a 50 kt storm 1min sustained help enhance the WWB?

Typoon Isa developed from a disturbance in the monsoon trough near the Caroline Islands on April 12.

Perfect timing for Tropical storm Tapah.

I wonder if Tapah can reach official typhoon intensity. There is a developing eye on the system. It could enhance that huge subsurface warm pool and cause massive warming thereafter.

[Yellow Evan]

Could a 50 kt storm 1min sustained help enhance the WWB?

Typoon Isa developed from a disturbance in the monsoon trough near the Caroline Islands on April 12.

Perfect timing for Tropical storm Tapah.

I wonder if Tapah can reach official typhoon intensity. There is a developing eye on the system. It could enhance that huge subsurface warm pool and cause massive warming thereafter.

Minimal typhoon status is still far away from the super typhoon Isa was.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

According to the JTWC, Tapah rapidly intensified from a weak depression to a strong tropical storm. The JMA upgraded this only to a minimal TS as they release updates in a schedule. An eye has appeared on imagery less than 24 hours after development. This could largely enhance the development of the WWB. JTWC now forecasts a 75 knot typhoon.

[Ntxw]

Minimal typhoon status is still far away from the super typhoon Isa was.

I have some questions as I don't fully understand, I know ISA is thrown around a lot for 1997. Wasn't ITA this year the same result? I know it was on the other side of the globe but why would be it a different result? Isa wasn't exactly that close to the equator. I'm asking because I don't fully understand these basins on the other side.

I mean, we had big WWB's without super typhoons in Feb and March that was as strong as any we've seen. 2002 had STY Itag but didn't result in a super Nino, or a resulting large WWB which came later in May. Is it a chicken or egg question? Is a STY a net result of the WWB or the WWB is a net result of the typhoon, I would doubt the later as in a larger scale they are small compared to other background forces. I do know they certainly can help.

Edit spellcheck: Mitag not itag

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño regions are gradually warming, with 1+2 warming the fastest, now at +0.282ºC or rounded to +0.3ºC! Niño 3 and 3.4 are at +0.4ºC and Niño 4 is at +0.6ºC.

[euro6208]

Wow.

Love this graphic showing the warm pool moving across the wide pacific.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Minimal typhoon status is still far away from the super typhoon Isa was.

I have some questions as I don't fully understand, I know ISA is thrown around a lot for 1997. Wasn't ITA this year the same result? I know it was on the other side of the globe but why would be it a different result? Isa wasn't exactly that close to the equator. I'm asking because I don't fully understand these basins on the other side.

I mean, we had big WWB's without super typhoons in Feb and March that was as strong as any we've seen. 2002 had STY Itag but didn't result in a super Nino, or a resulting large WWB which came later in May. Is it a chicken or egg question? Is a STY a net result of the WWB or the WWB is a net result of the typhoon, I would doubt the later as in a larger scale they are small compared to other background forces. I do know they certainly can help.

Edit spellcheck: Mitag not itag

Probably because the Kelvin Wave at the time was not that strong, which resulted with a moderate Niño. The subsurface waters that time were not as warm as this year. Same thing happened in 2004, when super typhoon Sudal formed, it did not cause a massive WWB. That year had one of the weakest El Niños on record.

[Ntxw]

It's going to be anywhere between 0.4 to 0.5C this week it looks from the graph updated this morning. Week centered Weds of last week is showing 0.4C. The most dramatic event the past few days has been 1+2, of course this region sees changes very quickly as we are witnessing but because most of last week it was cold, we won't see the full effects of it until next week's update.

[cycloneye]

Here is the CPC 4/28/14 text update. Nino 3.4 is up to +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf