2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting comment by Eric Blake about the MJO and the start of the season.


Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 3h
MJO influence on start of EPac seas interesting to watch-- too far e by 5/15? If slower, than early start potential?

Seems like we'll have either a very early 1st storm or very late 1st storm.

CMC showing consistency with the system. Could be legit given that at each 240 run, the system is further and further west. But it has no other model support, so development is still unlikely IMO, though I would not rule it out.

[hurricanes1234]

What would you say are the chances of having our first named storm form before the official start of the season (May 15)?

[Yellow Evan]

What would you say are the chances of having our first named storm form before the official start of the season (May 15)?

Still pretty low IMO. With that said, the CMC is getting more and more bullish. It's hard not to get excited. Now shows a possible MH,



For comparisons sake, the GFS does not even show this becoming a closed low. I'm not buying it, given it is still early May.

GFS does show a system on the 15th. Still too early for a storm right off of the Central America coast, but it's doable IMO. Given it's super long range, Ill wait till seeing some consistency, but it does have MJO going for it.

[Kingarabian]

Gotta love the Canadian's consistency.
Imagine if the Canadian forecasts this system correctly and beats the GFS and European.

[Yellow Evan]

Gotta love the Canadian's consistency.
Imagine if the Canadian forecasts this system correctly and beats the GFS and European.

It was posted on the last page that the Euro showed this forming a few days ago. But I rarely check that model.

Still, I cant' recall the last time the GFs missed a TC formation in the EPAC. Not to mention EPAC storms prior to May 15 are very rare east of 140.

However, wind shear is on the decline (about 18 knts basin-wide), which is below average for this time of year.

[hurricanes1234]

Gotta love the Canadian's consistency.
Imagine if the Canadian forecasts this system correctly and beats the GFS and European.

It was posted on the last page that the Euro showed this forming a few days ago. But I rarely check that model.

Still, I cant' recall the last time the GFs missed a TC formation in the EPAC. Not to mention EPAC storms prior to May 15 are very rare east of 140.

However, wind shear is on the decline (about 18 knts basin-wide), which is below average for this time of year.

Which is good for the formation of healthy tropical cyclones (fishes, of course)! By the way, I'd say we might get a Category 5 this year because of the favourable conditions I've been reading about (El Niño and low shear). But this is only my amateur opinion.

[Yellow Evan]

Gotta love the Canadian's consistency.
Imagine if the Canadian forecasts this system correctly and beats the GFS and European.

It was posted on the last page that the Euro showed this forming a few days ago. But I rarely check that model.

Still, I cant' recall the last time the GFs missed a TC formation in the EPAC. Not to mention EPAC storms prior to May 15 are very rare east of 140.

However, wind shear is on the decline (about 18 knts basin-wide), which is below average for this time of year.

Which is good for the formation of healthy tropical cyclones (fishes, of course)! By the way, I'd say we might get a Category 5 this year because of the favourable conditions I've been reading about (El Niño and low shear). But this is only my amateur opinion.

I'd say a Cat 5 is likely. I really struggle to find any negative factors for the season.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

But would it be too close to 2010? That's the only possible negative factor.

[Yellow Evan]

But would it be too close to 2010? That's the only possible negative factor.

No, 2010 and all its condtions that spawned La Nina are gone. All El Ninio's since 1994 sans 2004 had a Cat 5.

[Kingarabian]

GFS:

[hurricanes1234]

Who thinks it will become a hurricane, if it does form?

[Yellow Evan]

Who thinks it will become a hurricane, if it does form?

Not likely at all IMO for the CMC one, but you realize that the CMC and GFS are showing two different systems, right? The GFS one may have a chance, but it is IMO too early to tell.

Here's a CMC run from yesterday, though it's backed off.



New runs shows it much further west.



Still a bit all over the place in track. Likely phantom.

With that said, I believe in the GFS system. I'm seeing consistency to some degree now, and looks realistic, so I think it might or might not happen. The time frame looks right on target for the start of the season (3rd year in a row a storm formed around opening day if this happens). Track though may still be uncertain, but given it's still 16 days out, that is to be expected

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS knows shows 2 systems. Not sure if I buy into this. Kinda CMC like.

[cycloneye]

Michael Ventrice posted this tweet:

@MJVentrice First sign of potential East Pacific tropical cyclone in medium-range! Not unrealistic with strong MJO passage.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows this earlier (on May 14 run now, hinting the earlier run was semi-phantom as this is a common tendency of the GFS to briefly delay and/or show a 2nd system in the long range when only 1 storm forms.)

As for the CMC system, that's been dropped. Forget it.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS go home you're drunk. It's not August.



A sotrm is not likely to make it to BCS given the cold SST's. In August yea, when GOC waters are baking, but the GOC has one of the largest SST fluctuations in the world. It's above average, yet waters there are not above 2C there yet for the most part. The second one is plausible though. I've noticed stuff like this sometimes happens a lot in the long range (where it shows two storms instead of one and sometimes gets the timing off).

Prediction: The second system will form.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Siker]

The 00z Euro actually has that first system at the same time as the GFS, although it doesn't make it as far North.

[cycloneye]

Things getting more serious if you read these tweets by Eric Blake of NHC and Ryan Maue.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 5m
Way too much convection in the epac for my liking. Increasing chance of a pre-season storm next week given strong MJO and model trends...

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 9m
GFS 12z develops a tropical depression next Thurs in Eastern Pacific -- intensifies to hurricane by Day 8

[Yellow Evan]

Things getting more serious if you read these tweets by Eric Blake of NHC and Ryan Maue.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 5m
Way too much convection in the epac for my liking. Increasing chance of a pre-season storm next week given strong MJO and model trends...

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 9m
GFS 12z develops a tropical depression next Thurs in Eastern Pacific -- intensifies to hurricane by Day 8

System #1 (that I called phantom earlier, but this is before truncation so take that back. Not saying it will 100% sure happen though).



Peak as a high end TS. Kinda stalls it thereafter offshore while gradually weakening. Takes a typical May path.



System #2



Quite intense.

As you may or may not know, if any TC forms before May 12, this would be a first in EPAC proper. I could actually see this happening now, given that lack of wind shear compared to average. Vertical insatiability has risen slightly, but that has to do with day to day weather patterns and is still higher than it usually is during July (when it actually reaches a minimum).

[hurricanes1234]

Now I think this season will have at least 5 major hurricanes due to favourable conditions. Does anyone think it will be more active or the same as 1997?

Not official.