ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[dexterlabio]

The safest bet of when El Nino will be declared is in June, IMO. We need another strong round of MJO/Kelvin wave to kick start 3.4 warming.

[euro6208]

There goes the required +0.5C that needs to be maintained for the declaration of an el nino and comparison to 1997. More like this will just delay the arrival and possibly strong status for this el nino...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There goes the required +0.5C that needs to be maintained for the declaration of an el nino and comparison to 1997. More like this will just delay the arrival and possibly strong status for this el nino...

This just doesn't make sense. The buoys show a wide swath of +1ºC anomalies over the region. This could likely be a miscalculation. Looking at the NOAA/NESDIS 50KM SST Anomalies, overall equatorial Pacific warming was observed. They handled the situation wrongly, as instead of noticing the warmth and the surfacing of some +1ºC anomalies as they are supposed to obviously increase the reading to like +0.6ºC.

What else does not make sense is that the IRI lowered the probability of an El Niño to barely 70% by its peak. Instead of 55-60% el niño to 41% neutral to just 50-50% for MJJ. Warming is at a faster rate than expected.

[Yellow Evan]

Any incite to why they lowered it to .4C? It makes no sense to me.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Any incite to why they lowered it to .4C? It makes no sense to me.

Their downgrade of the index this update deserves some sentiments. I have absolutely no idea why. The negative anomalies are moving south and are shrinking. The overall surface there HAS WARMED. Let us just wait for the BOM and hope they will not do the same by tomorrow (later in your time).

[euro6208]

Any incite to why they lowered it to .4C? It makes no sense to me.

Maybe just a blip as warming is faster than what data can allow. Think of a rapidly intensifying cyclone and dvorak just plain catching up. Just wait for the cyclone to slow it's intensification phrase then data will catch up.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Any incite to why they lowered it to .4C? It makes no sense to me.

Maybe just a blip as warming is faster than what data can allow. Think of a rapidly intensifying cyclone and dvorak just plain catching up. Just wait for the cyclone to slow it's intensification phrase then data will catch up.

Somewhat unrelated, but like what happened during typhoon Haiyan? Dvorak was just barely catching up then went up rapidly. Like a typical super el Niño, rapidly intensifying then CPC takes time to issue the right reading for the SST anomaly.

1997:
May 7: +0.8ºC
May 14: +0.6ºC

Now:
May 7: +0.5ºC
May 14: +0.4ºC

[Alyono]

There goes the required +0.5C that needs to be maintained for the declaration of an el nino and comparison to 1997. More like this will just delay the arrival and possibly strong status for this el nino...

This just doesn't make sense. The buoys show a wide swath of +1ºC anomalies over the region. This could likely be a miscalculation. Looking at the NOAA/NESDIS 50KM SST Anomalies, overall equatorial Pacific warming was observed. They handled the situation wrongly, as instead of noticing the warmth and the surfacing of some +1ºC anomalies as they are supposed to obviously increase the reading to like +0.6ºC.

What else does not make sense is that the IRI lowered the probability of an El Niño to barely 70% by its peak. Instead of 55-60% el niño to 41% neutral to just 50-50% for MJJ. Warming is at a faster rate than expected.

the warm waters are no there yet. Be patient

[HURRICANELONNY]

Either I'mn color blind or these sst stats are wrong but it looks like .5 and above to me for the whole equator.


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 9.2014.gif

[JonathanBelles]

Please read the package put together by the CPC before beating them up!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Remember, SST's are not the only factor...

[NDG]

SOI and SST anomalies have no correlation at all. We had a higher SOI during the 2009 el Niño.

You can't say that, 2009 El nino remained weak during the late summer until the SOI really started tanking into negative values in fall of 2009, so IMO there is a correlation.

2004 was the weakest on record and had nearly the same 30 day SOI as 1997 at below -25.

I don't see the 30 day SOI any where close to below -25 in any month during 2004 as it did in 1997, do you have a link to show me otherwise?
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

My point is, that not unless we start seeing those kind of numbers with the SOI you can forget about a moderate to strong El Nino developing any time soon as it did in 1997, and that is where the correlation comes in.

[Cyclenall]

Well I for one is disappointed, just another disappointment in a long list of them so far in 2014.

*Cut*

That was unique and riveting on some level, now even that is back-pedaling a bit . Average and mediocre weather doesn't do anything for me, no point in intensely tracking that but merely just keeping tabs on it.

I stand by this post a week ago after today's CPC update showing Nino 3.4 down by 0.1ºC.

Maybe just a blip as warming is faster than what data can allow. Think of a rapidly intensifying cyclone and dvorak just plain catching up. Just wait for the cyclone to slow it's intensification phrase then data will catch up.

That makes no sense, if that was the case then 3.4 region would stay the same at worst. For all the tropical cyclones that I observed rapidly intensifying, I have never seen the numbers go down at all but slowly up and then catches up to the real strength like logic would dictate.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now let's wait for the BOM's update.

[Kingarabian]

SOI is UP because we've had no shift in winds. Been a while since we had any sort of WWB.

[cycloneye]

SOI is down because we've had no shift in winds. Been a while since we had any sort of WWB.

You meant SOI is up in positive for more than 2 weeks?

[NDG]

If you ask me if the latest CFSv2 is correct and its trends continuous, similarities to a weak Modoki El Nino is not out of the question during the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane season, IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

If you ask me if the latest CFSv2 is correct and its trends continuous, similarities to a weak Modoki El Nino is not out of the question during the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane season, IMO.

That doesn't look like a Modoki to me. Notice how the 3.4 forecast is higher than the 4 forecast. That looks like a moderate El Nino.

[Ntxw]

Sea surface heights do not resemble at all a modoki. There is a very distinct look when one occurs that the far WPAC and the western regions sees significant sea rises but never to the east, even in 2009 (it was actually a basin-wide Nino just strongest at 3.4) when it was pretty strong for a modoki there was lower SSH near SA.





SSH is not SSTA but there is a very strong correlation where there is rises in SSH is where the most warming occurs down the road.

[NDG]

The forecast may be that close to a Modoki but it surely does not look like the typical eastern based El Nino like in '97 for Aug-Oct time period.

One more image to add, CFSv2 SSH forecast:

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: The forecast may be that close to a Modoki but it surely does not look like the typical eastern based El Nino like in '97.

It's got a long way to go if it's going to duplicate this, a cold pool would need to develop underneath in the east. 2004 never saw SSH rises much above near SA in a true modoki at any point in it's life. It remained at or below from January through Sept.