Global model runs discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6841 Postby ronjon » Tue May 27, 2014 5:12 pm

Thanks Luis! Just too lazy to shorten the link sometimes. :P
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6842 Postby blp » Tue May 27, 2014 5:23 pm

Trying to understand is the ULL currently over southern US forecasted to dip into the carribean and reach the surface or will ULL simply help ventilate the atmosphere for a wave approaching from the East to develop. I am thinking the latter. Either way looks like a slow evolution if anything gets going.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re:

#6843 Postby NDG » Tue May 27, 2014 5:24 pm

Hammy wrote:Am I correct that the system presently moving into South America is what the models are picking up later in the week?



Yes, I believe it is part of it. The GFS shows the moisture from it getting drawn north and west into the western Caribbean after coming across northern S.A.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#6844 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue May 27, 2014 6:57 pm

That 200mb high on the eastern flank of the 500mb ULL could provide the vent for TStorms to keep firing over the western Carib. and set off surface reflection of a low. This could be interesting if it all comes together as seen by models except ECM.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6845 Postby blp » Tue May 27, 2014 7:37 pm

18z has it moving now inland over Yucatan around 7 days. The GFS looks to be inching closer to the CMC and Euro which have the lower pressure further west over land. Looks the ridge seems to be stronger on this run.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5472
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Re:

#6846 Postby chaser1 » Tue May 27, 2014 11:14 pm

NDG wrote:
Hammy wrote:Am I correct that the system presently moving into South America is what the models are picking up later in the week?



Yes, I believe it is part of it. The GFS shows the moisture from it getting drawn north and west into the western Caribbean after coming across northern S.A.


Sitting here just waiting for the 0Z GFS to load, and presently only seeing out to about 48 hr. Initially looking at the Shortwave IR (which tends to be my favorite night-time IR for weak systems), I first thought that the wave around 5N & 65W might be what the GFS had been trying to forecast; it may well be. A closer look at the SW Caribbean gave me the distinct impression that there was some weak turning just north of 10N & 80W. In spite of strong northerly shear, moisture seems to be slowly increasing around that area too. I then noticed that GFS does already depict a broad & weak 1009 surface low down there. Taking a look at the upper air out to 48 hr., and it's pretty evident that upper level conditions don't improve over the near term, but become worse with strong westerly zonal flow keeping any near term development at bay.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#6847 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed May 28, 2014 6:42 am

06z GFS this morning with a sheared, broad sloppy 50kt Storm into the Panhandle by next weekend.
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6848 Postby ronjon » Wed May 28, 2014 7:30 am

00z GFS delayed development over the GOM as it had the low track inland over the Yuc. 06z GFS is back on track with northern Yuc low moving toward the FL panhandle. Looking over the 850 mb vort, the GFS develops the low in the Gulf of Honduras in about 5-6 days from packets of energy moving off the SA coast.
0 likes   

stormlover2013

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6849 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed May 28, 2014 9:20 am

Euro will win like always!!! until the euro shows something I won't buy it, just my opinion
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6850 Postby tolakram » Wed May 28, 2014 9:51 am

stormlover2013 wrote:Euro will win like always!!! until the euro shows something I won't buy it, just my opinion


Many people feel this way, but it doesn't really add to the conversation other than to get people arguing about the models, so let's just not go there. :) Each models performance varies year to year and sometimes even in the location of the basin a storm will form in.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3386
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#6851 Postby tropicwatch » Wed May 28, 2014 9:54 am

Something forming and heading for the panhandle by the end of next week would be quite a start for the season. As always a wait and see game. I would not like to start my summer with bad weather. Would like some boat time this year. Not many tropical systems in the panhandle last year but it was a wash out last summer. By Saturday I think we might have a better idea on what might happen.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6852 Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 28, 2014 10:04 am

It appears this feature is associated with a monsoonal gyre that develops anywhere from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche/NW Caribbean Sea. I would watch both Basins for potential genesis as we may see a TC in the EPAC as well as the Western Gulf.
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6853 Postby floridasun78 » Wed May 28, 2014 11:33 am

miami weather office dont talk about low any more now talk about back door front MODELS DEPICT THIS MORE CONVECTIVE SEASON TYPE REGIME TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
TUESDAY...MODELS STILL HINT AT A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT...SO WILL
STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6854 Postby gatorcane » Wed May 28, 2014 12:40 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Euro will win like always!!! until the euro shows something I won't buy it, just my opinion


The Euro is a poor model for predicting genesis. The area the GFS shows some possible development is climatologically favored...something to watch but nothing that looks real concerning as far as anything organized or strong at this time.
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

#6855 Postby psyclone » Wed May 28, 2014 3:36 pm

storms of significant strength are almost unheard of this time of year so for me a more important question is where will the deep moisture pool in the Caribbean go? the rainy season seems to have gotten an early start in FL and this could make things really wet should that juice get drawn up this way.
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6856 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu May 29, 2014 6:50 am

A low in the BOC? I don't remember any model showing a low there. Shows ya not to look too much in to long range. :eek:

Models seem to agree that the relatively drier air behind this front may not make it to South Florida due mainly to a northward surge of moisture resulting from a developing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. As a result...this would keep shower and thunderstorm chances across the area through most of the upcoming week. The question at this point becomes how the models handle the evolution of the aforementioned low. The latest GFS run has now come more in line with the European model (ecmwf) in keeping this low in the Bay of Campeche and eventually into northern Mexico through the end of the week.
0 likes   
hurricanelonny

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6857 Postby tolakram » Thu May 29, 2014 7:04 am

6Z GFS looks like it's moved this feature into the EPAC, which is also very common this time of year.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#6858 Postby blp » Thu May 29, 2014 7:59 am

tolakram wrote:6Z GFS looks like it's moved this feature into the EPAC, which is also very common this time of year.


I agree you see this happens quite often this time of the year. As is quite obvious now, the GFS did poorly on the evolution of this area. It had a weaker High and focused the lowest pressure in the W.Carrib. versus the EPAC. The Euro and CMC had the better idea. It could still pop up in the BOC though but as a crossover from origins in the EPAC.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
beagleagle23
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 17
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 3:12 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, MS

#6859 Postby beagleagle23 » Thu May 29, 2014 1:51 pm

12Z GFS has a 999 mb storm around the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area on Monday, June 9th. Hopefully, this won't affect my trip there for next weekend....

Image
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

#6860 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu May 29, 2014 2:28 pm

Any run that far out. Is for entertainment purposes only. 10 days? Models have a hard time past 5 days. :lol:
0 likes   
hurricanelonny


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest