Global model runs discussion

[ronjon]

Thanks Luis! Just too lazy to shorten the link sometimes.

[blp]

Trying to understand is the ULL currently over southern US forecasted to dip into the carribean and reach the surface or will ULL simply help ventilate the atmosphere for a wave approaching from the East to develop. I am thinking the latter. Either way looks like a slow evolution if anything gets going.

[NDG]

Am I correct that the system presently moving into South America is what the models are picking up later in the week?

Yes, I believe it is part of it. The GFS shows the moisture from it getting drawn north and west into the western Caribbean after coming across northern S.A.

[Dean4Storms]

That 200mb high on the eastern flank of the 500mb ULL could provide the vent for TStorms to keep firing over the western Carib. and set off surface reflection of a low. This could be interesting if it all comes together as seen by models except ECM.

[blp]

18z has it moving now inland over Yucatan around 7 days. The GFS looks to be inching closer to the CMC and Euro which have the lower pressure further west over land. Looks the ridge seems to be stronger on this run.

[chaser1]

Am I correct that the system presently moving into South America is what the models are picking up later in the week?

Yes, I believe it is part of it. The GFS shows the moisture from it getting drawn north and west into the western Caribbean after coming across northern S.A.

Sitting here just waiting for the 0Z GFS to load, and presently only seeing out to about 48 hr. Initially looking at the Shortwave IR (which tends to be my favorite night-time IR for weak systems), I first thought that the wave around 5N & 65W might be what the GFS had been trying to forecast; it may well be. A closer look at the SW Caribbean gave me the distinct impression that there was some weak turning just north of 10N & 80W. In spite of strong northerly shear, moisture seems to be slowly increasing around that area too. I then noticed that GFS does already depict a broad & weak 1009 surface low down there. Taking a look at the upper air out to 48 hr., and it's pretty evident that upper level conditions don't improve over the near term, but become worse with strong westerly zonal flow keeping any near term development at bay.

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS this morning with a sheared, broad sloppy 50kt Storm into the Panhandle by next weekend.

[ronjon]

00z GFS delayed development over the GOM as it had the low track inland over the Yuc. 06z GFS is back on track with northern Yuc low moving toward the FL panhandle. Looking over the 850 mb vort, the GFS develops the low in the Gulf of Honduras in about 5-6 days from packets of energy moving off the SA coast.

[stormlover2013]

Euro will win like always!!! until the euro shows something I won't buy it, just my opinion

[tolakram]

Euro will win like always!!! until the euro shows something I won't buy it, just my opinion

Many people feel this way, but it doesn't really add to the conversation other than to get people arguing about the models, so let's just not go there. Each models performance varies year to year and sometimes even in the location of the basin a storm will form in.

[tropicwatch]

Something forming and heading for the panhandle by the end of next week would be quite a start for the season. As always a wait and see game. I would not like to start my summer with bad weather. Would like some boat time this year. Not many tropical systems in the panhandle last year but it was a wash out last summer. By Saturday I think we might have a better idea on what might happen.

[srainhoutx]

It appears this feature is associated with a monsoonal gyre that develops anywhere from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche/NW Caribbean Sea. I would watch both Basins for potential genesis as we may see a TC in the EPAC as well as the Western Gulf.

[floridasun78]

miami weather office dont talk about low any more now talk about back door front MODELS DEPICT THIS MORE CONVECTIVE SEASON TYPE REGIME TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY
TUESDAY...MODELS STILL HINT AT A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THIS FRONT...SO WILL
STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW.

[gatorcane]

Euro will win like always!!! until the euro shows something I won't buy it, just my opinion

The Euro is a poor model for predicting genesis. The area the GFS shows some possible development is climatologically favored...something to watch but nothing that looks real concerning as far as anything organized or strong at this time.

[psyclone]

storms of significant strength are almost unheard of this time of year so for me a more important question is where will the deep moisture pool in the Caribbean go? the rainy season seems to have gotten an early start in FL and this could make things really wet should that juice get drawn up this way.

[HURRICANELONNY]

A low in the BOC? I don't remember any model showing a low there. Shows ya not to look too much in to long range.

Models seem to agree that the relatively drier air behind this front may not make it to South Florida due mainly to a northward surge of moisture resulting from a developing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. As a result...this would keep shower and thunderstorm chances across the area through most of the upcoming week. The question at this point becomes how the models handle the evolution of the aforementioned low. The latest GFS run has now come more in line with the European model (ecmwf) in keeping this low in the Bay of Campeche and eventually into northern Mexico through the end of the week.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS looks like it's moved this feature into the EPAC, which is also very common this time of year.

[blp]

6Z GFS looks like it's moved this feature into the EPAC, which is also very common this time of year.

I agree you see this happens quite often this time of the year. As is quite obvious now, the GFS did poorly on the evolution of this area. It had a weaker High and focused the lowest pressure in the W.Carrib. versus the EPAC. The Euro and CMC had the better idea. It could still pop up in the BOC though but as a crossover from origins in the EPAC.

[beagleagle23]

12Z GFS has a 999 mb storm around the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area on Monday, June 9th. Hopefully, this won't affect my trip there for next weekend....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Any run that far out. Is for entertainment purposes only. 10 days? Models have a hard time past 5 days.