Global model runs discussion

hurricanekid416 · #6901 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Sat May 31, 2014 1:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS begins things in BOC in 90 hours.

At 180 hours it has a 997 pressure and lopsided.

Notice the low pressure in the Atlantic ocean

Hammy · #6902 Postby **Hammy** » Sat May 31, 2014 1:21 pm

Given the consistency with formation point it's looking increasingly likely that this won't be a fluke (it's at least not doing what it did last year and constantly delaying development.) Still looks though like it'll be a very typical June storm, with mostly everything to the east. If it does form hopefully we can get a bit of a cooling off and some rain in northern Georgia.

hurricanehunter69 · #6903 Postby **hurricanehunter69** » Sat May 31, 2014 1:40 pm

I'll have to disagree with the BOC solution. Although a second low could certainly form in that area as well? I'm more focused on some immediate development possibly right off the Louisiana coast. I've been thinking that the culprit would be that ULL all along. The remnant ULL is emerging off the coast as I speak. The weather around here is nevertheless getting very tropical! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

#6904 Postby **Alyono** » Sat May 31, 2014 1:44 pm

No development is occurring in the short term off of Louisiana

bamajammer4eva · #6905 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sat May 31, 2014 2:17 pm

Looks like accuweather thinks this may get and maybe even keep a Pacific name. While this possibility seems to come up every year, I don't think this has actually happened before--since they made the rule about it keeping its old name at least.

If the system in the eastern Pacific acquires a name and makes the track across southern Mexico without dissipating, it would then keep its eastern Pacific name in the Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean. However, storms from the eastern Pacific typically do not survive the trip across mountainous southern Mexico.

If the system dissipates over southern Mexico and only a piece of its energy fuels a new tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, the new system would acquire a name from the Atlantic Basin's list.

The first tropical storm of 2014 in the Atlantic would be named "Arthur."

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... f/27857594

#6906 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 31, 2014 2:39 pm

12z ECMWF at 144 hours has zip-nada.

#6907 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 31, 2014 2:53 pm

Well,at 240 hours Euro has a TD/weak TS in BOC.

bamajammer4eva · #6908 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sat May 31, 2014 2:53 pm

NWS Tallahassee expects just a surface low but still says Bears watching

Looking longer term, a weak
surface low still appears to form across Bay of Campeche or Nrn
Yucatan Peninsula around Wed bears watching as moisture heads
towards our area beginning on Sat.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afo ... 1405311833

#6909 Postby **Alyono** » Sat May 31, 2014 3:18 pm

Luis,

the EC actually shows TWO separate BOC systems in the next 10 days.

#6910 Postby **AJC3** » Sat May 31, 2014 4:17 pm

Alyono wrote:Luis,

the EC actually shows TWO separate BOC systems in the next 10 days.

Yep, we were just discussing the 12Z ECM solution at shift change. Its last few runs have essentially slowly ground a weak system westward into Old Mexico toward the latter half of next week. Looks like a big sloppy, baroclinically enhanced mess down in that area for the next week. Likely to see some serious rainfall totals around the Yucatan.

#6911 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat May 31, 2014 6:47 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:#20 GEFS Member keeps it in the Yucatan Channel for several days then ENE across extreme southern Florida as a Hurricane @ 90kts, with Miami area getting hurricane winds. Lets hope that one is wrong!

Can you post a graphic of this model?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Sorry, no I can't. Got it off JB's WeatherBell site and they do not allow graphics to be used.

#6912 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 31, 2014 6:52 pm

Post model runs for SW GOM at new thread

CFLHurricane · #6913 Postby **CFLHurricane** » Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:16 pm

GFS 18Z is picking up a Caribbean disturbance that peaks off of florida about 180hrs from now:

What do ya'll think?

TheStormExpert · #6914 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:21 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:GFS 18Z is picking up a Caribbean disturbance that peaks off of florida about 180hrs from now:

What do ya'll think?

Not buying it! :lol:

Hurricane Alexis · #6915 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Sat Jun 07, 2014 3:02 am

The GFS and FIM are liking the idea of a caribbean system next week. They've been showing this for a while now.

#6916 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 07, 2014 10:39 pm

GFDL doesn't give up on 90L or what's left of it. Highly unlikely IMHO.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

#6917 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 08, 2014 8:44 am

DOOM!!! for the Gulf coast. But is a long range run of GFS showing this,enough said.

#6918 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:53 am

CMC shows something lifting up from the Western Caribbean into the Gulf. Here is what it has at 192 hours. Quicker than the GFS but similar idea.

#6919 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 08, 2014 11:35 am

I will only post this graphic of 12z GFS run because is below 144 hours but after that time it becomes entertainment.

stormlover2013 · #6920 Postby **stormlover2013** » Sun Jun 08, 2014 3:36 pm

@TropicalTidbits: Can't assume 7 days in advance that the GFS is wrong either, but compared with a 7-day projection from, say, the ECMWF, it's low-probability

@TropicalTidbits: @RyanMaue I wish I had boycotted the GFS for 3 days during that period like you did. Painful.

@TropicalTidbits: Classic GFS issue in tropics: "Lets crank a TC at entrance region of any kinked jetstreak in sight because I'm bored" http://t.co/fY1S05HINc

@TropicalTidbits: GFS west Caribbean TC next weekend looks like erroneous feedback. Very dubious forecast with no other model support. http://t.co/tNoLNwjf95

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