2014 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

Another look at the current global sea surface temperature with infrared
June 13, 2014



May 31, 2014

[euro6208]

Large area of above average rainfall due to MJO and kelvin wave during next weeks...

The updated outlook has some changes from that released earlier in the week. Starting in the western Pacific, the marginal threat for tropical development in the Meiyu Front region continues, but over a smaller region during the remainder of the previous Week-1 outlook. JTWC continues to monitor this region. It was removed during Week-2 as support for the area is less and decreased from the first portion of the updated outlook (Days 1-4). There is some evidence of an equatorial Rossby wave moving westward in the far western Pacific and model guidance appears to have adjusted some to this feature. Precipitation areas in the outlook for both below-median and above-median precipitation were modified accordingly for both periods. The two areas for above-median precipitation in the previous outlook were combined in the update for Days 5-11 (previous Week-2 outlook).

Also, tropical development is possible in a generally small region from just west of the northern Philippines northeastward to east of Taiwan during both Week-1 and Week-2. Any system may be subtropical in nature and likely short-lived.

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm Hagibis has formed

Thread to our 7th Tropical Cyclone of the Season...

[euro6208]

90 Hours

Low pressure east of Philippines



114 hours

TD/TS east of Luzon



150 hours

Emerges in the South China Sea after making landfall over Luzon then tracks north and becomes a front and veers off to the northeast...

[euro6208]

06Z GFS no longer showing any development near the philippines but it does show a developing tropical cyclone near the International dateline typical of an el nino year!

324 hours



384 hours

[Hurricane_Luis]

06Z GFS no longer showing any development near the philippines but it does show a developing tropical cyclone near the International dateline typical of an el nino year!

324 hours

http://i61.tinypic.com/10f10n4.png

384 hours

http://i58.tinypic.com/126bmz9.png

I noticed that low out in the open ocean earlier when I looked. But at 384 Hours out, That's in imaginary land for me, but hey something to watch out for.

[euro6208]

Well this undecided el nino has caused quite a stir as the WPAC has not been able to become active.

EURO at 240 hours and GFS at 384 hours does not even develop anything!

[euro6208]

Looks like a big MJO pulse might get this basin active again...next month...

[euro6208]

Amazing! look at the WPAC!

Just waiting for the atmosphere to become ripe, then all hell's broke lose!

[euro6208]

The MJO is expected to continue to move slowly eastwards across the Maritime Continent, toward the western Pacific this week. Some models forecast the MJO signal to weaken as it moves east, while others indicate the signal will stay strong enough to influence tropical convection. The MJO is predicted to enter the western Pacific in the next six to ten days. If the MJO maintains its strength, the risk of tropical cyclone development over the west Pacific will increase towards the end of next week, but there is also an equal chance that the MJO will be too weak to have a significant impact on tropical weather. There is always a risk of tropical cyclone development when the monsoon trough is active, even if the MJO is not present.

[euro6208]

Starts off in the Central pacific...



Crosses into the Western Pacific maybe a TD/TS



End of run with no major change in strength...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess GFS dropped the system for now.

[euro6208]

Yup GFS and EURO doesn't develop any storms within the next few days which is kinda bizarre given we are headed towards an el nino. SST is super favorable, Moisture is superb and spreading more northward towards Japan and intensifying over a large area but the atmosphere is only somewhat favorable with low to moderate shear dominating the basin...Plus instability is below average in the 3 main regions...also the MJO which is over the area is forecast to weaken back into the Indian Ocean...

[Macrocane]

Could this year be the WPAC equivalent to the 2013 ATL hurricane season? ... a major bust after an anticipated above normal season?
Obviously is too early to tell but it's susrprisingly quiet out there.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Could this year be the WPAC equivalent to the 2013 ATL hurricane season? ... a major bust after an anticipated above normal season?
Obviously is too early to tell but it's susrprisingly quiet out there.

After Haiyan last year, I think the people of the Philippines would agree with you. I think it is going to be a big year for the EPAC and CPAC. Not as many intense storms in the WPAC will form. In my opinion anyway

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think that the EPAC could be more active than the WPAC this year in terms of ACE and everything? I'm not saying it would, but just throwing the possibility out, in the event that this lack of activity continues for the next few months.

[Steve820]

Does anyone think that the EPAC could be more active than the WPAC this year in terms of ACE and everything? I'm not saying it would, but just throwing the possibility out, in the event that this lack of activity continues for the next few months.

Actually, I have a gut feeling the WPac will continue to be inactive until about the end of July, but in August the basin could possibly explode. The event you mentioned is very unusual, and I don't think it'll happen this year. There's still a tiny chance that'll happen though if the WPac surprisingly pulls a 2013 AHS on us (like, the intensity and number of storms ends up much less than originally predicted).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Does anyone think that the EPAC could be more active than the WPAC this year in terms of ACE and everything? I'm not saying it would, but just throwing the possibility out, in the event that this lack of activity continues for the next few months.

Actually, I have a gut feeling the WPac will continue to be inactive until about the end of July, but in August the basin could possibly explode. The event you mentioned is very unusual, and I don't think it'll happen this year. There's still a tiny chance that'll happen though if the WPac surprisingly pulls a 2013 AHS on us (like, the intensity and number of storms ends up much less than originally predicted).

I am thinking of a more intense repeat of last year's typhoon season, wherein, activity was low but there as a massive explosion of activity by SON. This year would be more activity than last year and thus more impressive, due to the more favorable conditions brought by the El Niño lingering. Less of those weak, unimpressive storms, but we may also have a few (less than last year tho) before the massive typhoon burst.

[Yellow Evan]

Does anyone think that the EPAC could be more active than the WPAC this year in terms of ACE and everything? I'm not saying it would, but just throwing the possibility out, in the event that this lack of activity continues for the next few months.

Actually, I have a gut feeling the WPac will continue to be inactive until about the end of July, but in August the basin could possibly explode. The event you mentioned is very unusual, and I don't think it'll happen this year. There's still a tiny chance that'll happen though if the WPac surprisingly pulls a 2013 AHS on us (like, the intensity and number of storms ends up much less than originally predicted).

I get that feeling as well. 1983 was close, but the EPAC has never been more active than the WPAC.

[stormcruisin]

Been following the Wespac for a few season's it only needs a strong wave and it has the potential to spawn multi TY,s also it not even peak time of the season there yet so don't be fooled Wespac will again kick butt and hopefully Guam is not the target this season. Its been suggested by the unofficial agency Guam is a 300% chance for a direct landfall this season.