2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Been following the Wespac for a few season's it only needs a strong wave and it has the potential to spawn multi TY,s also it not even peak time of the season there yet so don't be fooled Wespac will again kick butt and hopefully Guam is not the target this season. Its been suggested by the unofficial agency Guam is a 300% chance for a direct landfall this season.

What is your location?

[euro6208]

Does anyone think that the EPAC could be more active than the WPAC this year in terms of ACE and everything? I'm not saying it would, but just throwing the possibility out, in the event that this lack of activity continues for the next few months.

I would be completely shocked if the EPAC is more active this year. There were a few years that got close but the EPAC has never been more active than the WPAC since records began...

[euro6208]

Latest forecast has very low pressure in the WPAC and the rest of the pacific as we head towards the last half of year.

[euro6208]

18Z again picking up on Neoguri which starts developing around 216 hours near the IDL then moves it towards the Northern Marianas.

End of Run:



Also notice another LP southeast of Guam...

[euro6208]

Tick Tock Tick Tock...

Eerily quiet right now but i do believe activity should start to pick up by next month but that still isn't a guarantee as models don't show anything developing through the first week of July...

[hurricanes1234]

The WPAC continues to fail to produce storms and somehow I have a feeling that at least for the first few months, the EPAC will be way ahead of it. It's already ahead of it, since all other basins in the northern hemisphere are below average because of shear, dry air, high pressure, etc. I guess the WPAC ACE must have fallen to below 30% of the year to date by now?

The preceding was not an official forecast (see below).

[euro6208]

The WPAC continues to fail to produce storms and somehow I have a feeling that at least for the first few months, the EPAC will be way ahead of it. It's already ahead of it, since all other basins in the northern hemisphere are below average because of shear, dry air, high pressure, etc. I guess the WPAC ACE must have fallen to below 30% of the year to date by now?

The preceding was not an official forecast (see below).

Actually now 33% year to date.

ACE so far is 12.47
Normal Year to date is 37...

[euro6208]

The convectively active monsoon trough (brown dashed lines) is setting up over the area from western micronesia to the marshall islands. Mainly up to near 10 N. WPAC storms tend to develop more in this trough during el nino years.

[euro6208]

Offshore buoys showing further warming.

Saipan reporting 30.6 C

Ipan Guam reporting 30.5 C
Ritidian Guam in the Northern Part reporting 31.1 C!

[euro6208]

This season about to get really active based on this 1959-2012 chart from JTWC...

Activity should become more extremely active because of el nino...

Right now though, waiting for the atmosphere to respond...then booooommmmmmm!

[stormcruisin]

WP99: (15kts)
At time of post.

[euro6208]

look what the euro has approaching the philippines long range

[stormcruisin]

Big area of low pressure due midweek if the model is correct could be the change in the weather patterns to get things cranking again.




As for now probs has a few areas of interest on radar.

[euro6208]

06Z GFS on board with development of typhoon neoguri which develops around 90 hours and passes over the northern marianas and recurves while euro is much farther west and weaker.

Monsoon trough is in full effect and that extends from the south china sea to the international dateline. I wouldn't be surprised if one or more systems develop out from this...

[stormcruisin]

[euro6208]

Euro at 192 hours still developing a very large monsoon type depression in the philippine sea with a tail of deep convection stretching all the way to the philippines and bay of bengal. Develops it into a tropical storm, recurves and pounds southern japan.

GFS 12Z showing this...much stronger...down to 980 mb and recurves...and plenty of rain for guam and the pacific islands

[Yellow Evan]

Euro at 192 hours still developing a very large monsoon type depression in the philippine sea with a tail of deep convection stretching all the way to the philippines and bay of bengal. Develops it into a tropical storm, recurves and pounds southern japan.

GFS 12Z showing this...much stronger...down to 980 mb and recurves...and plenty of rain for guam and the pacific islands

Why aren't you using the full res version?

[stormcruisin]

Looking like a real cranker.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking like a real cranker.

Brings it to 952 mbar. It's unusual that models make stuff this strong.

[stormcruisin]

Brings it to 952 mbar. It's unusual that models make stuff this strong.

Yeah true also interesting is the pattern of pumping out a string of lows on the model very typical of a active vigorous monsoon pattern.
That track looks to close for comfort for the Philippines given the margin for error could be a few hundred miles either way.