Off SE U.S coast (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form off the southeastern coast of
the United States this weekend and linger into early next week.
Some development of this system is possible if it remains over
water.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[NDG]

A look at the 12z Euro closer, it shows the low pressure offshore and an UL ridge on top of it for Sunday morning.

[tropicwatch]

That would be a perfect set up for a developing system.

[cycloneye]

A circle on land. Is not often that they put circles overland.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure over South Carolina is
expected to move offshore of the southeastern United States this
weekend. Some development of this system is possible while it
lingers off the southeastern coast of the United States early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[HurricaneBelle]

A circle on land. Is not often that they put circles overland.

The West Atlantic equivalent of waiting for a wave to come off Africa.

[Frank2]

A circle over land - how the NHC has changed over the past 30 years - and not for the better!!!

The GFS shows a very weak low over water and then dissipates it once it cycles back over land - the NHC must be getting anxious for lack of work...

Frank

[Alyono]

A circle over land - how the NHC has changed over the past 30 years - and not for the better!!!

The GFS shows a very weak low over water and then dissipates it once it cycles back over land - the NHC must be getting anxious for lack of work...

Frank

Huh? They are identifying a possible system as they should, that has a 5 day development chance. The 1970s way of waiting until it is developed to mention it is gone. This IS a change for the better

[StarmanHDB]

A circle over land - how the NHC has changed over the past 30 years - and not for the better!!!

The GFS shows a very weak low over water and then dissipates it once it cycles back over land - the NHC must be getting anxious for lack of work...

Frank

So in other words, by using the latest science and technology to give people advanced notice of a possible tropical system, the NHC is actually doing harm (your stating that such changes put in place by an institution specifically designed to protect millions of people are "not for the better" implies harm)?

Although I like to consider myself reasonably intelligent, I know that I'm not the only member of this site that doesn't understand your reasoning. That said, can you please explain your reasoning so it makes clear sense because as I'm reading it now, it makes absolutely no sense at all?

Thanks!

[SeGaBob]

I sense 91L coming once this moves offshore..



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

i think we saw some thing like this before invest came from low was coming off coast but their been only few case of this happening

[OuterBanker]

Didn’t see much support from the models this am. But after looking at the visible around noon there seems to be a spin up right where the yellow circle is in SC. Would feel a lot different is that monster 995 mb low in the upper Midwest was exiting. Last check on the SC low was around 1014 mb. Pretty high, but it is lower than that spin up off Fl last week if I remember correctly.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_SE/anim16vis.html

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters made a good discussion about this.

A blow-up of thunderstorms over Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday created an area of low pressure that tracked east-northeast over the Southeast U.S., and was over Georgia and South Carolina on Friday. This low will emerge over the coastal South Carolina waters on Saturday, and move over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current by Sunday. Sea surface temperature in this region are about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C, which is plenty of heat energy for a developing tropical cyclone. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain moderate through Monday. These conditions favor development, though the 00Z Friday runs of our reliable tropical cyclone genesis models--the GFS, European, and UKMET--did not show development into a tropical depression. The disturbance will be in an area of weak steering currents, and the predominant track favored by the models is a slow south and then southwest movement towards Florida. The latest thinking from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center (Figure 1) is that the disturbance will bring a swath of 2 - 4" of rain from North Carolina to Florida during the coming week. These rainfall totals will be higher if the disturbance develops into a tropical depression. However, the system may not have much time over water before moving ashore over Florida on Monday, if the 00Z and 06Z Friday runs of the GFS model are correct. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

[hurricanetrack]

The idea of putting an outlook up for weather systems over land was talked about during the Tropical Weather Conference in April. To suggest the NHC staff is bored to the point of making stuff up is an insult to their reputation and their intellect. It does not take a hurricane to cause problems for people. Consider this: the low moves off of the land mass and in to the warm Atlantic waters, becomes even a little bit stronger, maybe never even makes it to depression status but more organized none the less. Don't you think that boaters who venture offshore, perhaps out to the Gulf Stream for fishing, would want to know about this system? Plenty of reasons to alert the public of the possibility of development, even if it only impacts a few people.

[cycloneye]

Saved loop.

[OuterBanker]

A side note. This am we had a couple minor thunderstorms roll over us. Those storms really blew up as they went offshore and are exiting rather fast east which gives the indication of the conditions offshore. It leads me to believe that if a minor low does “meander” just offshore for a while it really could lead to development. About the only place in the Atlantic basin right now that would allow for development.

[SeGaBob]

When is this projected to move offshore?

[stauglocal]

When is this projected to move offshore?

It is suppose to move offshore on Saturday.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has good 850mb vorticity.



Shear appears it will be low in the area.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure over South Carolina is
expected to move offshore of the southeastern United States on
Saturday. Some development of this system is possible while
it lingers off the southeastern coast of the United States early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[NDG]

Looking at the 12z Euro as it comes in, it looks a bit more similar to yesterday's 12z run and not like last night's run.