ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weathernerdguy]

50 mph storm.

[NDG]

Weird that they keep pressure at 1003mb and the fix further north.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT

[Aric Dunn]

Weird that they keep pressure at 1003mb and the fix further north.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT

because recon has not flown through the other yet..

[northjaxpro]

Basically stationary for the moment.

[bahamaswx]

Grand Bahama really getting pounded. Wonder how much rain they've gotten in the last 24 hours.

[weathernerdguy]

the peak is now 90mph, at 72 hours out.......
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Aric Dunn]

Grand Bahama really getting pounded. Wonder how much rain they've gotten in the last 24 hours.

my radar estimates are showing around 12 inches.

[TheAustinMan]

Grand Bahama really getting pounded. Wonder how much rain they've gotten in the last 24 hours.

If only Bahamas radar was out... but radar from Melbourne is estimating that the deepest parts of the convection are perhaps dumping 2-2.5 inches per hour.

[supercane4867]

forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?

Near Cat.2 at day 3

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[cycloneye]

Read the very interesting discussion made by Stacey Stewart

[eastcoastFL]

The cone of doom still has a hurricane in the outter banks...

forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?

[SunnyThoughts]

forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?

Forecast I read said expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.

[eastcoastFL]

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?

Forecast I read said expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

Read the very interesting discussion made by Stacey Stewart

This couldn't have been fun:

"In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence."

[ronjon]

forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?

Forecast I read said expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.

Latest NHC advisory places the forecast storm at 90 mph in 72 hrs.

[weathernerdguy]

it was a accident, i misread something.

[TheStormExpert]

Only July 1st and were on our first storm and it may be stronger than any of the Atlantic storms from last season!

[Aric Dunn]

Read the very interesting discussion made by Stacey Stewart

This couldn't have been fun:

In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence.

lol once they fly through the new forming center and them hot towers I bet we get plenty of hurricane force winds... I dont think they are going to find much of the old center left..on this pass..


oh on radar a clearing spot beginning to develop... 27.3n 78.7 w

everything rotating around that piont..

[Aric Dunn]

recon just found the new center... very close to mine estimate..

recon 27.55N 78.8667W .... well looking at the wind data they missed to the north a little bit.

mine from radar.
27.3n 78.7 w

[chaser1]

Read the very interesting discussion made by Stacey Stewart

This couldn't have been fun:

In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence.

lol once they fly through the new forming center and them hot towers I bet we get plenty of hurricane force winds... I dont think they are going to find much of the old center left..on this pass..


oh on radar a clearing spot beginning to develop... 27.3n 78.7 w

everything rotating around that piont..

On radar??? Hmmm, thats where I (and several others) have been assuming the mid level center to be. Thought i noticed a "sucker hole" there on recent IR...but wasnt ready to fully buy in. If its showing up on radar, than i‘m apt to think this may be the real deal..., that recon may well find sustained 60 knots on a next pass into this point..., and that maybe we are beginning to see that northward motion commencing. Than again...., it may well just be another eddy and Arthur remains stationary