ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- weathernerdguy
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50 mph storm.
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Weird that they keep pressure at 1003mb and the fix further north.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT
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Re:
NDG wrote:Weird that they keep pressure at 1003mb and the fix further north.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT
because recon has not flown through the other yet..
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- northjaxpro
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Basically stationary for the moment.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Grand Bahama really getting pounded. Wonder how much rain they've gotten in the last 24 hours.
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- weathernerdguy
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the peak is now 90mph, at 72 hours out.......
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Last edited by weathernerdguy on Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
bahamaswx wrote:Grand Bahama really getting pounded. Wonder how much rain they've gotten in the last 24 hours.
my radar estimates are showing around 12 inches.
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- TheAustinMan
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
bahamaswx wrote:Grand Bahama really getting pounded. Wonder how much rain they've gotten in the last 24 hours.
If only Bahamas radar was out... but radar from Melbourne is estimating that the deepest parts of the convection are perhaps dumping 2-2.5 inches per hour.
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Re:
weathernerdguy wrote:forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?
Near Cat.2 at day 3
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- eastcoastFL
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Re:
The cone of doom still has a hurricane in the outter banks...
weathernerdguy wrote:forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:
weathernerdguy wrote:forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?
Forecast I read said expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: Re:
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.
SunnyThoughts wrote:weathernerdguy wrote:forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?
Forecast I read said expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Read the very interesting discussion made by Stacey Stewart
This couldn't have been fun:
"In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence."
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Jul 01, 2014 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:
SunnyThoughts wrote:weathernerdguy wrote:forecast says peak is 50 knots..... so no hurricane?
Forecast I read said expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.
Latest NHC advisory places the forecast storm at 90 mph in 72 hrs.
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- weathernerdguy
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it was a accident, i misread something.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:cycloneye wrote:Read the very interesting discussion made by Stacey Stewart
This couldn't have been fun:
In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence.
lol once they fly through the new forming center and them hot towers I bet we get plenty of hurricane force winds... I dont think they are going to find much of the old center left..on this pass..
oh on radar a clearing spot beginning to develop... 27.3n 78.7 w
everything rotating around that piont..
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recon just found the new center... very close to mine estimate..
recon 27.55N 78.8667W .... well looking at the wind data they missed to the north a little bit.
mine from radar.
27.3n 78.7 w
recon 27.55N 78.8667W .... well looking at the wind data they missed to the north a little bit.
mine from radar.
27.3n 78.7 w
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:gatorcane wrote:cycloneye wrote:Read the very interesting discussion made by Stacey Stewart
This couldn't have been fun:
In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence.
lol once they fly through the new forming center and them hot towers I bet we get plenty of hurricane force winds... I dont think they are going to find much of the old center left..on this pass..
oh on radar a clearing spot beginning to develop... 27.3n 78.7 w
everything rotating around that piont..
On radar??? Hmmm, thats where I (and several others) have been assuming the mid level center to be. Thought i noticed a "sucker hole" there on recent IR...but wasnt ready to fully buy in. If its showing up on radar, than i‘m apt to think this may be the real deal..., that recon may well find sustained 60 knots on a next pass into this point..., and that maybe we are beginning to see that northward motion commencing. Than again...., it may well just be another eddy and Arthur remains stationary
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