ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

NOAA Plane=Lowest pressure=988.4

[brunota2003]

One thing I'd like to point about about evacuations is roads in Eastern NC have improved considerable in the past 20 years. Formerly, to reach the Outer Banks you had to drive down 1 of 2 (US 64 or 264) 2 lane roads that passed through many small towns for nearly 100 miles from the closest 4 lane divided highway. Now a 70 mph divided highway reaches with within 20 miles or so of the OBX, and you can cut right across Roanoke Island on a highway with a new large bridge, where formerly you had to snake through the town of Manteo. So the N portion of the OBX can (INHO) be evacuated much easier than in previous years. The only real problem with evacuations is the portion from Pea Island south, where Hwy 12 repairs/upgrades are being held in the courts by groups who want to build a long bridge to replace the sections that keep getting overwashed.

It also depends on how many of the tourists are already on the island once the evac goes into effect. Contraflow would prevent any others from accessing the island...but it would still take quite a bit of time.

[WxEnthus]

found this info on wikipdia kinda seems like whats going on now
An eye-like structure is often found in intensifying tropical cyclones. Similar to the eye seen in hurricanes or typhoons, it is a circular area at the circulation center of the storm in which convection is absent. These eye-like features are most normally found in intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes of Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, an eye-like feature was found in Hurricane Beta when the storm had maximum wind speeds of only 80 km/h (50 mph), well below hurricane force.[24] The features are typically not visible on visible wavelengths or infrared wavelengths from space, although they are easily seen on microwave satellite imagery.[25] Their development at the middle levels of the atmosphere is similar to the formation of a complete eye, but the features might be horizontally displaced due to vertical wind shear
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beta

A few things different with Arthur compared to that -- this is vertically stacked, it can be seen on visible and IR satellite, and there is convection near the center of circulation.

[SeGaBob]

NOAA Plane=Lowest pressure=988.4

That would be a drastic drop if that's not an error.

[SunnyThoughts]

202930 2944N 07905W 6665 03418 9877 +113 +074 180011 015 018 001 00

NOAA 987?

[Aric Dunn]

NOAA Plane=Lowest pressure=988.4

that a 7mb drop for the noaa plane in a hour..

[cycloneye]

NOAA3=987.9

[NDG]

Once the UL trough gets closer and an outflow gets going in the nw quadrant, look out!

[Syx6sic]

found this info on wikipdia kinda seems like whats going on now
An eye-like structure is often found in intensifying tropical cyclones. Similar to the eye seen in hurricanes or typhoons, it is a circular area at the circulation center of the storm in which convection is absent. These eye-like features are most normally found in intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes of Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, an eye-like feature was found in Hurricane Beta when the storm had maximum wind speeds of only 80 km/h (50 mph), well below hurricane force.[24] The features are typically not visible on visible wavelengths or infrared wavelengths from space, although they are easily seen on microwave satellite imagery.[25] Their development at the middle levels of the atmosphere is similar to the formation of a complete eye, but the features might be horizontally displaced due to vertical wind shear
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beta

A few things different with Arthur compared to that -- this is vertically stacked, it can be seen on visible and IR satellite, and there is convection near the center of circulation.[/quote]
yea I getthat also but just figured I would point out the article while I am finishing up yard work around here In Norfolk just incase we get something here from arthur

[SeGaBob]

It might just be me but the eye appears to have wobbled slightly to the west.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

found this info on wikipdia kinda seems like whats going on now
An eye-like structure is often found in intensifying tropical cyclones. Similar to the eye seen in hurricanes or typhoons, it is a circular area at the circulation center of the storm in which convection is absent. These eye-like features are most normally found in intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes of Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, an eye-like feature was found in Hurricane Beta when the storm had maximum wind speeds of only 80 km/h (50 mph), well below hurricane force.[24] The features are typically not visible on visible wavelengths or infrared wavelengths from space, although they are easily seen on microwave satellite imagery.[25] Their development at the middle levels of the atmosphere is similar to the formation of a complete eye, but the features might be horizontally displaced due to vertical wind shear
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beta

A few things different with Arthur compared to that -- this is vertically stacked, it can be seen on visible and IR satellite, and there is convection near the center of circulation.

That was the case last night, where that eye like feature was in the mid levels. Today it is stacked!!!

[SunnyThoughts]

NE quad sure looks to be ramping up.

[tallywx]

Once the UL trough gets closer and an outflow gets going in the nw quadrant, look out!

Thing has dropped from 995mb to (potentially) 987mb in two hours. That already qualifies as "look out!"

[northjaxpro]

Once the UL trough gets closer and an outflow gets going in the nw quadrant, look out!

Absolutely! Arthur could become a Cat 2 when it reaches the vicinity off the NC coast.

[WxEnthus]

Small wobbles aside, from center passes it appears the storm is heading almost due north. Or that's what my eyes see...

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely appears that convection is wrapping in tigther to the center.. the is contracting.. in a sense

[cycloneye]

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

[NDG]

Once the UL trough gets closer and an outflow gets going in the nw quadrant, look out!

Absolutely! Arthur could become a Cat 2 when it reaches the vicinity off the NC coast.

Very likely but I would not be surprised if it reaches Cat 3.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[weathernerdguy]

60 knot tropical storm.

[SeGaBob]

How much longer will the planes be flying in this? It appears to be strengthening while they're in it.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.