ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1441 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:35 pm

NOAA Plane=Lowest pressure=988.4
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Re:

#1442 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:35 pm

NC George wrote:One thing I'd like to point about about evacuations is roads in Eastern NC have improved considerable in the past 20 years. Formerly, to reach the Outer Banks you had to drive down 1 of 2 (US 64 or 264) 2 lane roads that passed through many small towns for nearly 100 miles from the closest 4 lane divided highway. Now a 70 mph divided highway reaches with within 20 miles or so of the OBX, and you can cut right across Roanoke Island on a highway with a new large bridge, where formerly you had to snake through the town of Manteo. So the N portion of the OBX can (INHO) be evacuated much easier than in previous years. The only real problem with evacuations is the portion from Pea Island south, where Hwy 12 repairs/upgrades are being held in the courts by groups who want to build a long bridge to replace the sections that keep getting overwashed.

It also depends on how many of the tourists are already on the island once the evac goes into effect. Contraflow would prevent any others from accessing the island...but it would still take quite a bit of time.
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Re: Re:

#1443 Postby WxEnthus » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:36 pm

Syx6sic wrote:found this info on wikipdia kinda seems like whats going on now
An eye-like structure is often found in intensifying tropical cyclones. Similar to the eye seen in hurricanes or typhoons, it is a circular area at the circulation center of the storm in which convection is absent. These eye-like features are most normally found in intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes of Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, an eye-like feature was found in Hurricane Beta when the storm had maximum wind speeds of only 80 km/h (50 mph), well below hurricane force.[24] The features are typically not visible on visible wavelengths or infrared wavelengths from space, although they are easily seen on microwave satellite imagery.[25] Their development at the middle levels of the atmosphere is similar to the formation of a complete eye, but the features might be horizontally displaced due to vertical wind shear
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beta


A few things different with Arthur compared to that :uarrow: -- this is vertically stacked, it can be seen on visible and IR satellite, and there is convection near the center of circulation.
Last edited by WxEnthus on Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1444 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:NOAA Plane=Lowest pressure=988.4


That would be a drastic drop if that's not an error.
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#1445 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:36 pm

202930 2944N 07905W 6665 03418 9877 +113 +074 180011 015 018 001 00

NOAA 987?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1446 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:NOAA Plane=Lowest pressure=988.4


that a 7mb drop for the noaa plane in a hour..
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1447 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:37 pm

NOAA3=987.9

Image
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1448 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:37 pm

Once the UL trough gets closer and an outflow gets going in the nw quadrant, look out!
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Re: Re:

#1449 Postby Syx6sic » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:39 pm

WxEnthus wrote:
Syx6sic wrote:


found this info on wikipdia kinda seems like whats going on now
An eye-like structure is often found in intensifying tropical cyclones. Similar to the eye seen in hurricanes or typhoons, it is a circular area at the circulation center of the storm in which convection is absent. These eye-like features are most normally found in intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes of Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, an eye-like feature was found in Hurricane Beta when the storm had maximum wind speeds of only 80 km/h (50 mph), well below hurricane force.[24] The features are typically not visible on visible wavelengths or infrared wavelengths from space, although they are easily seen on microwave satellite imagery.[25] Their development at the middle levels of the atmosphere is similar to the formation of a complete eye, but the features might be horizontally displaced due to vertical wind shear
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beta


A few things different with Arthur compared to that :uarrow: -- this is vertically stacked, it can be seen on visible and IR satellite, and there is convection near the center of circulation.[/quote]
yea I getthat also but just figured I would point out the article while I am finishing up yard work around here In Norfolk just incase we get something here from arthur
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#1450 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:41 pm

It might just be me but the eye appears to have wobbled slightly to the west.




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Re: Re:

#1451 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:42 pm

WxEnthus wrote:
Syx6sic wrote:found this info on wikipdia kinda seems like whats going on now
An eye-like structure is often found in intensifying tropical cyclones. Similar to the eye seen in hurricanes or typhoons, it is a circular area at the circulation center of the storm in which convection is absent. These eye-like features are most normally found in intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes of Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, an eye-like feature was found in Hurricane Beta when the storm had maximum wind speeds of only 80 km/h (50 mph), well below hurricane force.[24] The features are typically not visible on visible wavelengths or infrared wavelengths from space, although they are easily seen on microwave satellite imagery.[25] Their development at the middle levels of the atmosphere is similar to the formation of a complete eye, but the features might be horizontally displaced due to vertical wind shear
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beta


A few things different with Arthur compared to that :uarrow: -- this is vertically stacked, it can be seen on visible and IR satellite, and there is convection near the center of circulation.

That was the case last night, where that eye like feature was in the mid levels. Today it is stacked!!!
Last edited by NDG on Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1452 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:42 pm

Image NE quad sure looks to be ramping up.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1453 Postby tallywx » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:42 pm

NDG wrote:Once the UL trough gets closer and an outflow gets going in the nw quadrant, look out!


Thing has dropped from 995mb to (potentially) 987mb in two hours. That already qualifies as "look out!"
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1454 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:43 pm

NDG wrote:Once the UL trough gets closer and an outflow gets going in the nw quadrant, look out!


Absolutely! Arthur could become a Cat 2 when it reaches the vicinity off the NC coast.
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#1455 Postby WxEnthus » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:45 pm

Small wobbles aside, from center passes it appears the storm is heading almost due north. Or that's what my eyes see...
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#1456 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:45 pm

Definitely appears that convection is wrapping in tigther to the center.. the is contracting.. in a sense
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1457 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:46 pm

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1458 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:46 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
NDG wrote:Once the UL trough gets closer and an outflow gets going in the nw quadrant, look out!


Absolutely! Arthur could become a Cat 2 when it reaches the vicinity off the NC coast.


Very likely but I would not be surprised if it reaches Cat 3.


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#1459 Postby weathernerdguy » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:46 pm

60 knot tropical storm.
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#1460 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:46 pm

How much longer will the planes be flying in this? It appears to be strengthening while they're in it.



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