ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Cape Fear is getting wind gusts to 67 mph.

[hurricanedude]

Lol aric...I was asking ur opinion from what u have seen

[Bocadude85]

Arthur's eyewall is going to get pretty darn close to Wilmington.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

more dry air being pulled in..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Long Beach, NC may be the first land location (besides Grand Bahama Island a few days ago) to get a glimpse of Arthur's centralized convection.

Just to clarify to avoid confusion in case another name is mentioned. Long Beach, NC doesn't exist anymore. Yaupon Beach and Long Beach consolidated a while back and are now called Oak Island, NC. For reference west to eastand then north up the coast are the beaches/cities in this order. Oak Island, Caswell Beach, Southport (Bald head Island is a couple miles SE from Southport), Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, Wrightsville Beach, and then Topsail Island. Wilmington is a couple miles inland from Wrightsville Beach. Also, Cape Fear isn't really a city or town. It is more of a general area. There is the Cape Fear river mouth, which Southport sits on and Bald Head Island is right at the entrance. Kure Beach sits on the opposite side of the Cape Fear River from Southport, with Wilmington sitting a few miles up the river from Kure Beach.

[NDG]

Looks like pressure is down at least another mb down to 976 per recon raw data.

[Aric Dunn]

se to nw pass from recon did not find any stronger winds but pressure down to near 975

[Okibeach]

Long Beach, NC may be the first land location (besides Grand Bahama Island a few days ago) to get a glimpse of Arthur's centralized convection.

Just to clarify to avoid confusion in case another name is mentioned. Long Beach, NC doesn't exist anymore. Yaupon Beach and Long Beach consolidated a while back and are now called Oak Island, NC. For reference west to eastand then north up the coast are the beaches/cities in this order. Oak Island, Caswell Beach, Southport (Bald head Island is a couple miles SE from Southport), Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, Wrightsville Beach, and then Topsail Island. Wilmington is a couple miles inland from Wrightsville Beach.

Seems like that will always be the name. Lol. Wind starting to change up a bit, was SSE now pretty much East. Can't believe the OI bridge is still open.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Can someone post a good link for a vis. And an IR thank you

Preferably a loop

http://www.wect.com/ will probably have the best local radar and commentary at this time. It is one of the main stations out of Wilmington, and they probably have the best meteorology team in the area.

[TheAustinMan]

Long Beach, NC may be the first land location (besides Grand Bahama Island a few days ago) to get a glimpse of Arthur's centralized convection.

Just to clarify to avoid confusion in case another name is mentioned. Long Beach, NC doesn't exist anymore. Yaupon Beach and Long Beach consolidated a while back and are now called Oak Island, NC. For reference west to eastand then north up the coast are the beaches/cities in this order. Oak Island, Caswell Beach, Southport (Bald head Island is a couple miles SE from Southport), Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, Wrightsville Beach, and then Topsail Island. Wilmington is a couple miles inland from Wrightsville Beach.

Thanks for the clarification. I'm obviously not a North Carolina native,

[chaser1]

Yeah, there‘s still some dry air entrainment, however I think overall Arthur is looking pretty healthy and would assume the eye to tighten up a little as it approaches the coast later this evening. I'm guessing it‘ll peak right around 105 mph during the next 6 hours

[seahawkjd]

Getting a little nervous about the scaffolding they have on the water tower behind my place.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[TexasF6]

Looks like an ERC could be happening now....










Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

974.3 from the noaa plane

[ravyrn]

Pressure seems to be down to 974mb now.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Looks like an ERC could be happening now....
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Generally a Hurricane doesn't go through it's first ERC until it reaches around category 3 intensity... I believe it's just Dry Air getting pulled in that causing the structural issues at the present time.

[TheAustinMan]

MIMIC-TC loop for today, pretty good at showing what the inner workings of Arthur are.

[bahamaswx]

Look how well established the outflow is in the NW quad now compared to just a few hours ago.

[supercane4867]

I don't see any visible concentric eyewall structure that there will be no ERC anytime soon, likely just some dry air disruption as said

[Hammy]

Latest radar loop shows the eye getting larger.