ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Southport is only under a hurricane watch.

This is ridiculous... Its like saying "oh, everythings fine, the town was under a tornado watch" without issuing a warning.

I'm not sure I've seen something like this in my lifetime of following storms (which is to say, since the 1988 hurricane season). The closest thing has been short-fused hurricane warnings for TS that unexpectedly strengthened into hurricanes, or TS that were declared hurricanes in post-season analysis.

But to have an established 90-mph cane with hurricane force winds 10-20 miles offshore of somewhere not covered by a hurricane warning? Literally "unprecedented."

20 miles is to close to not be under a warning IMO, but Arthur is showing how friggen good the NHC has become when it comes to tracks... Especially when a system takes a classic path like Arthur... 10+ years ago the entire SC/NC would be under a warning and lots of people would have evacuated unnecessarily... If sustained hurricane force winds are not recorded in Southport, the NHC was right w/ TS warning only...

[windnrain]

Guy in Frying Pan Shoals has amazing video of offshore waves:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t40g_OBmdfs

[Time_Zone]

I think it's peaking now.

It's really not strengthening much now. Still has an outside shot at cat 2 but that's definitely the most it's getting. I'm doubting it reaches cat 2 at this point. It just seems to have a love for dry air.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Thankfully it looks like the hard right turn is complete. Perhaps it will even miss Beaufort now?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

saved loop

[windnrain]

Pretty strong wobble, lets see if it is actually a wobble or a change in track.

[supercane4867]

Well-defined eye with perfect symmetry and impressive outflow. Hard to believe it's only a Cat 1

[Okibeach]

Southport is only under a hurricane watch.

This is ridiculous... Its like saying "oh, everythings fine, the town was under a tornado watch" without issuing a warning.

Trust me, we knew there was a storm coming today. They canceled today's NC 4th of July Festival activities. LOL

Yeah, doesn't make too much of a difference for the locals, but I'm sure our visitors are not going to forget. Of course I can still see a ton of cars traversing the bridge, that would be a disaster if they got blown off. Especially since they would have normally closed it hours ago. I don't know what they're thinking.

[Aric Dunn]

Thankfully it looks like the hard right turn is complete. Perhaps it will even miss Beaufort now?

saved loop

It definately jogged to the right there.. but it did that earlier.. not going to call it a turn yet .. ill give it another hour..


to much rotational effects from the constant convective burst pulling and tugging at it.. wobble wobble lol

[ozonepete]

Wow that is a pretty distinct hard right. Of course there are wobbles involved but can't see how it will wobble far enough left now to get the eye over the coast before Hatteras. If it does stay just offshore after all and the eye-wall doesn't get over land it can still maintain or get a little stronger before Hatteras. (Since I think the dry air issue is going to drop off again.)

[Alyono]

Think that hard right turn is an illusion

its more the eye closing off. Probably a NE motion, however

[tolakram]

30 frame live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=34&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[torrea40]

RT @FPTower just entered the eye of Arthur! Winds peaked at 99mph! NOAA Buoy #16 just slid past us heading towards the Wrightsville beaches!

[Aric Dunn]

Think that hard right turn is an illusion

its more the eye closing off. Probably a NE motion, however

agreed ..

[Stormcenter]

Sure looks like a hard right to me. IMO

[torrea40]

Per Dr. Masters: At 90 mph, and 979 mb, #Arthur is now as strong as any hurricane of 2013

[Aric Dunn]

on radar been easy to track.. for the last hour or so it has had the spokes in the eye like a bike rim... very simple way of tracking the exact center..

[tolakram]

live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=34&lon=-78&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10

[Hammy]

There does seem to be a more pronounced northeastward movement now, given satellite/radar long loops, and it looks like the eye is simultaneously starting to shrink again.

[Pack11]

I usually just lurk and read, but wanted to thank you guys for all the information and education. I'm on Hatteras Island and my daughter is in Wilmington so I have obviously been checking this thread all day.

[Aric Dunn]

for the first time we have a fairly solid eyewall in all quad.. could be its final attempt to deepen...