ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2321 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:36 pm

tallywx wrote:
windnrain wrote:Southport is only under a hurricane watch.

This is ridiculous... Its like saying "oh, everythings fine, the town was under a tornado watch" without issuing a warning.


I'm not sure I've seen something like this in my lifetime of following storms (which is to say, since the 1988 hurricane season). The closest thing has been short-fused hurricane warnings for TS that unexpectedly strengthened into hurricanes, or TS that were declared hurricanes in post-season analysis.

But to have an established 90-mph cane with hurricane force winds 10-20 miles offshore of somewhere not covered by a hurricane warning? Literally "unprecedented."



20 miles is to close to not be under a warning IMO, but Arthur is showing how friggen good the NHC has become when it comes to tracks... Especially when a system takes a classic path like Arthur... 10+ years ago the entire SC/NC would be under a warning and lots of people would have evacuated unnecessarily... If sustained hurricane force winds are not recorded in Southport, the NHC was right w/ TS warning only...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#2322 Postby windnrain » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:38 pm

Guy in Frying Pan Shoals has amazing video of offshore waves:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t40g_OBmdfs
0 likes   

Time_Zone
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 251
Joined: Sat May 08, 2010 4:15 am

#2323 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:39 pm

I think it's peaking now.

It's really not strengthening much now. Still has an outside shot at cat 2 but that's definitely the most it's getting. I'm doubting it reaches cat 2 at this point. It just seems to have a love for dry air.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by tolakram on Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added disclaimer
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2324 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:41 pm

Thankfully it looks like the hard right turn is complete. Perhaps it will even miss Beaufort now?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


saved loop

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#2325 Postby windnrain » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:42 pm

Pretty strong wobble, lets see if it is actually a wobble or a change in track.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2326 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:42 pm

Well-defined eye with perfect symmetry and impressive outflow. Hard to believe it's only a Cat 1

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Okibeach
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 87
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:12 pm
Location: Oak Island NC

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2327 Postby Okibeach » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:43 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
windnrain wrote:Southport is only under a hurricane watch.

This is ridiculous... Its like saying "oh, everythings fine, the town was under a tornado watch" without issuing a warning.



Trust me, we knew there was a storm coming today. They canceled today's NC 4th of July Festival activities. LOL

Yeah, doesn't make too much of a difference for the locals, but I'm sure our visitors are not going to forget. Of course I can still see a ton of cars traversing the bridge, that would be a disaster if they got blown off. Especially since they would have normally closed it hours ago. I don't know what they're thinking.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2328 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:43 pm

tolakram wrote:Thankfully it looks like the hard right turn is complete. Perhaps it will even miss Beaufort now?

saved loop

Image


It definately jogged to the right there.. but it did that earlier.. not going to call it a turn yet .. ill give it another hour..


to much rotational effects from the constant convective burst pulling and tugging at it.. wobble wobble lol
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2329 Postby ozonepete » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:47 pm

Wow that is a pretty distinct hard right. Of course there are wobbles involved but can't see how it will wobble far enough left now to get the eye over the coast before Hatteras. If it does stay just offshore after all and the eye-wall doesn't get over land it can still maintain or get a little stronger before Hatteras. (Since I think the dry air issue is going to drop off again.)
Last edited by ozonepete on Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#2330 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:49 pm

Think that hard right turn is an illusion

its more the eye closing off. Probably a NE motion, however
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2331 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:49 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

torrea40

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2332 Postby torrea40 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:49 pm

RT @FPTower just entered the eye of Arthur! Winds peaked at 99mph! NOAA Buoy #16 just slid past us heading towards the Wrightsville beaches!
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re:

#2333 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:50 pm

Alyono wrote:Think that hard right turn is an illusion

its more the eye closing off. Probably a NE motion, however



agreed ..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#2334 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:51 pm

Sure looks like a hard right to me. IMO
0 likes   

torrea40

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2335 Postby torrea40 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:52 pm

Per Dr. Masters: At 90 mph, and 979 mb, #Arthur is now as strong as any hurricane of 2013
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#2336 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:53 pm

on radar been easy to track.. for the last hour or so it has had the spokes in the eye like a bike rim... very simple way of tracking the exact center..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2337 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:55 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#2338 Postby Hammy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:56 pm

There does seem to be a more pronounced northeastward movement now, given satellite/radar long loops, and it looks like the eye is simultaneously starting to shrink again.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Pack11
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 9:10 pm
Location: Hatteras Island, NC

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2339 Postby Pack11 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:57 pm

I usually just lurk and read, but wanted to thank you guys for all the information and education. I'm on Hatteras Island and my daughter is in Wilmington so I have obviously been checking this thread all day.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#2340 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:59 pm

for the first time we have a fairly solid eyewall in all quad.. could be its final attempt to deepen...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests