ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

It would've been quite interesting to see how intense this would be had it been 50-100 miles east given how well organized it is, and recent convective wrapping.

Yeah Hammy, you have to wonder. With all of the negatives that kept popping up this one has still out-performed so far. In fact I'm just amazed by that band in the SE quadrant. That's going to do a major job on Hatteras soon.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking next advisory will increase the winds to 90 kt based on that SFMR reading - they would probably go with that at landfall as well.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

1:17am EDT sonde splash: 975mb, surface wind 16 knots (18 mph)

[cpdaman]

How far north of NC/VA did Euro have tropical storm winds sustained/ anyone. Seems like that is nailing it best

[CrazyC83]

050800 3508N 07552W 6961 02988 9880 +086 -117 182089 091 098 005 03
050830 3509N 07554W 6966 02963 9857 +086 -109 178086 090 089 006 03
050900 3509N 07556W 6969 02944 9832 +091 -051 175078 085 082 009 00
050930 3509N 07558W 6967 02932 9783 +113 +053 179061 071 081 007 00
051000 3509N 07600W 6971 02919 9757 +122 +112 184045 054 070 003 03

Still not quite to the center. The next set of obs could show a pressure under 976.

Is that 98 kt SFMR legit or flagged? That would support nearly a Cat 3.

[CrazyC83]

1:17am EDT sonde splash: 975mb, surface wind 16 knots (18 mph)

That means the pressure is 974 right now.

[bahamaswx]

050800 3508N 07552W 6961 02988 9880 +086 -117 182089 091 098 005 03
050830 3509N 07554W 6966 02963 9857 +086 -109 178086 090 089 006 03
050900 3509N 07556W 6969 02944 9832 +091 -051 175078 085 082 009 00
050930 3509N 07558W 6967 02932 9783 +113 +053 179061 071 081 007 00
051000 3509N 07600W 6971 02919 9757 +122 +112 184045 054 070 003 03

Still not quite to the center. The next set of obs could show a pressure under 976.

Is that 98 kt SFMR legit or flagged? That would support nearly a Cat 3.

That's flagged.

[brunota2003]

The 03 at the end of the data says the SFMR reading is flagged and considered suspect.

[JtSmarts]

According to WNCT, pressure at Ocracoke is 974 mb.

[CrazyC83]

The 03 at the end of the data says the SFMR reading is flagged and considered suspect.

Now that makes sense. Still a very impressive storm.

[cpdaman]

This may be a wrong rememberance but is it my imagination that sometimes models underestimate the speed of hurricane's advancing North of say 35 North, I thought I remember them usually moving faster but maybe my memory is off

[Jevo]

How far north of NC/VA did Euro have tropical storm winds sustained/ anyone. Seems like that is nailing it best

Actually the Euro was the Eastern outlier for most of this storms life... The GFS and..... dare I say it.... HWRF had this path dialed in about 48 hours ago.

HWRF has TS force winds over the cape in 24-27 hours http://i.imgur.com/Z1iqSqc.png Euro runs in about 10 mins

[Chris_in_Tampa]

There are a lot of barrier islands that recon was going over. Not all readings were marked suspect that should be. There were some around Ocracoke that were wrong and others that are a toss up.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 975mb


000
URNT12 KNHC 040539
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 04/05:12:50Z
B. 35 deg 10 min N
076 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2874 m
D. 82 kt
E. 093 deg 13 nm
F. 181 deg 91 kt
G. 094 deg 17 nm
H. 975 mb
I. 9 C / 3050 m
J. 14 C / 3049 m
K. -2 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1401A ARTHUR OB 20
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 094 / 17 NM 05:08:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT
;

[bahamaswx]

Pressure down to 975mb

.....
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT

WITH a 16kt surface wind!

[Kalrany]

Pressure down to 975mb

.....
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT

WITH a 16kt surface wind!

I am going to show my ignorance with this question, but why is that significant? What does that mean in terms of the storm intensity in practical terms?

[ozonepete]

Pressure down to 975mb

.....
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT

WITH a 16kt surface wind!

Yeah that's impressive.

[Alyono]

pressure is 974 based upon surface reports

[bahamaswx]

Pressure down to 975mb

.....
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT

WITH a 16kt surface wind!

I am going to show my ignorance with this question, but why is that significant? What does that mean in terms of the storm intensity in practical terms?

I believe the general rule of thumb is to subtract 1mb for every 10kts of surface wind (since the surface wind indicates the drop slightly missed the center.)

Disclaimer: But I'm a mathematician, and don't know anything about meteorology.

[Time_Zone]

How is it still strengthening while half of it is over land?