ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ozonepete
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Re:

#2681 Postby ozonepete » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:34 am

Hammy wrote:It would've been quite interesting to see how intense this would be had it been 50-100 miles east given how well organized it is, and recent convective wrapping.


Yeah Hammy, you have to wonder. With all of the negatives that kept popping up this one has still out-performed so far. In fact I'm just amazed by that band in the SE quadrant. That's going to do a major job on Hatteras soon.
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#2682 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:34 am

I'm thinking next advisory will increase the winds to 90 kt based on that SFMR reading - they would probably go with that at landfall as well.
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#2683 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:36 am

1:17am EDT sonde splash: 975mb, surface wind 16 knots (18 mph)
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#2684 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:36 am

How far north of NC/VA did Euro have tropical storm winds sustained/ anyone. Seems like that is nailing it best
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Re:

#2685 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:36 am

bahamaswx wrote:050800 3508N 07552W 6961 02988 9880 +086 -117 182089 091 098 005 03
050830 3509N 07554W 6966 02963 9857 +086 -109 178086 090 089 006 03
050900 3509N 07556W 6969 02944 9832 +091 -051 175078 085 082 009 00
050930 3509N 07558W 6967 02932 9783 +113 +053 179061 071 081 007 00
051000 3509N 07600W 6971 02919 9757 +122 +112 184045 054 070 003 03

Still not quite to the center. The next set of obs could show a pressure under 976.


Is that 98 kt SFMR legit or flagged? That would support nearly a Cat 3.
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#2686 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:37 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:1:17am EDT sonde splash: 975mb, surface wind 16 knots (18 mph)


That means the pressure is 974 right now.
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Re: Re:

#2687 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:38 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:050800 3508N 07552W 6961 02988 9880 +086 -117 182089 091 098 005 03
050830 3509N 07554W 6966 02963 9857 +086 -109 178086 090 089 006 03
050900 3509N 07556W 6969 02944 9832 +091 -051 175078 085 082 009 00
050930 3509N 07558W 6967 02932 9783 +113 +053 179061 071 081 007 00
051000 3509N 07600W 6971 02919 9757 +122 +112 184045 054 070 003 03

Still not quite to the center. The next set of obs could show a pressure under 976.


Is that 98 kt SFMR legit or flagged? That would support nearly a Cat 3.


That's flagged.
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#2688 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:38 am

The 03 at the end of the data says the SFMR reading is flagged and considered suspect.
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#2689 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:39 am

According to WNCT, pressure at Ocracoke is 974 mb.
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Re:

#2690 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:39 am

brunota2003 wrote:The 03 at the end of the data says the SFMR reading is flagged and considered suspect.


Now that makes sense. Still a very impressive storm.
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#2691 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:41 am

This may be a wrong rememberance but is it my imagination that sometimes models underestimate the speed of hurricane's advancing North of say 35 North, I thought I remember them usually moving faster but maybe my memory is off
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Re:

#2692 Postby Jevo » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:41 am

cpdaman wrote:How far north of NC/VA did Euro have tropical storm winds sustained/ anyone. Seems like that is nailing it best


Actually the Euro was the Eastern outlier for most of this storms life... The GFS and..... dare I say it.... HWRF had this path dialed in about 48 hours ago.

HWRF has TS force winds over the cape in 24-27 hours http://i.imgur.com/Z1iqSqc.png Euro runs in about 10 mins
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#2693 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:42 am

There are a lot of barrier islands that recon was going over. Not all readings were marked suspect that should be. There were some around Ocracoke that were wrong and others that are a toss up.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2694 Postby NDG » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:43 am

Pressure down to 975mb


000
URNT12 KNHC 040539
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 04/05:12:50Z
B. 35 deg 10 min N
076 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2874 m
D. 82 kt
E. 093 deg 13 nm
F. 181 deg 91 kt
G. 094 deg 17 nm
H. 975 mb
I. 9 C / 3050 m
J. 14 C / 3049 m
K. -2 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1401A ARTHUR OB 20
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 094 / 17 NM 05:08:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT
;
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2695 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:45 am

NDG wrote:Pressure down to 975mb

.....
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT


WITH a 16kt surface wind!
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2696 Postby Kalrany » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:47 am

bahamaswx wrote:
NDG wrote:Pressure down to 975mb

.....
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT


WITH a 16kt surface wind!



I am going to show my ignorance with this question, but why is that significant? What does that mean in terms of the storm intensity in practical terms?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2697 Postby ozonepete » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:48 am

bahamaswx wrote:
NDG wrote:Pressure down to 975mb

.....
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT


WITH a 16kt surface wind!


Yeah that's impressive.
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#2698 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:48 am

pressure is 974 based upon surface reports
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2699 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:50 am

Kalrany wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:
NDG wrote:Pressure down to 975mb

.....
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255/16 KT


WITH a 16kt surface wind!



I am going to show my ignorance with this question, but why is that significant? What does that mean in terms of the storm intensity in practical terms?


I believe the general rule of thumb is to subtract 1mb for every 10kts of surface wind (since the surface wind indicates the drop slightly missed the center.)

Disclaimer: But I'm a mathematician, and don't know anything about meteorology.
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#2700 Postby Time_Zone » Fri Jul 04, 2014 12:51 am

How is it still strengthening while half of it is over land? :eek:
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