2014 WPAC Season

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mrbagyo
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#341 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:58 am

JTWC's 2013 best track is done.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2013/2013s-bwp/

Haiyan remains at 170 knots, Usagi downgraded to borderline cat4/5... Lekima stays at 140 knots??? the last one...Lekima stays at 140!what!
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#342 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:03 pm

Image

GFS developing 3 more tropical cyclones long range. 2 crossover from the CPAC. Very el ninoish...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#343 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:06 pm

mrbagyo wrote:JTWC's 2013 best track is done.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2013/2013s-bwp/

Haiyan remains at 170 knots, Usagi downgraded to borderline cat4/5... Lekima stays at 140 knots??? the last one...Lekima stays at 140!what!


WP, 31, 2013110712, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1290E, 170, 895, ST, 34, NEQ, 130, 100, 115, 130, 1003, 200, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110712, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1290E, 170, 895, ST, 50, NEQ, 65, 60, 55, 70, 1003, 200, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110712, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1290E, 170, 895, ST, 64, NEQ, 50, 35, 30, 50, 1003, 200, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110718, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1269E, 170, 895, ST, 34, NEQ, 130, 115, 120, 130, 1000, 220, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110718, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1269E, 170, 895, ST, 50, NEQ, 65, 60, 60, 70, 1000, 220, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110718, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1269E, 170, 895, ST, 64, NEQ, 50, 45, 40, 50, 1000, 220, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110800, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1247E, 165, 899, ST, 34, NEQ, 130, 115, 120, 130, 1000, 220, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110800, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1247E, 165, 899, ST, 50, NEQ, 65, 60, 60, 70, 1000, 220, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110800, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1247E, 165, 899, ST, 64, NEQ, 50, 45, 40, 50, 1000, 220, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,

Very impressive. Highest sustained winds in any Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone!
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#344 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:09 pm

euro6208 wrote:Image

GFS developing 3 more tropical cyclones long range. 2 crossover from the CPAC. Very el ninoish...



will that coincide with arrival of MJO?
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#345 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:12 pm

Image

I agree this is stronger than 140 knots. Look at that dark grey completely surrounding a very small distinct eye plus system is very small...I would say peak was likely 150 to 155 knots for Lekima...
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#346 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:18 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
GFS developing 3 more tropical cyclones long range. 2 crossover from the CPAC. Very el ninoish...



will that coincide with arrival of MJO?


I think MJO will be in Phrase 8 by then which should place it over the Western Hemisphere. Maybe kelvin wave related...
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#347 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:29 pm

After possible typhoon Rammasun, there is another typhoon [in the latest GFS run] that is forecast to deepen to 960mb-possible category 2 typhoon.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#348 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:33 pm

euro6208 wrote:Image

I agree this is stronger than 140 knots. Look at that dark grey completely surrounding a very small distinct eye plus system is very small...I would say peak was likely 150 to 155 knots for Lekima...

Why don't you post this on the 2013 thread? I posted there last night [my time] because my post was about the 2013 typhoon BT changes.
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#349 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:47 pm

GEM/CMC showing a crossover from the CPAC intensifying to a minimal typhoon, coinciding with another stronger typhoon and a weaker typhoon over SE CHINA in 240 hours.
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#350 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Jul 12, 2014 4:06 am

09W is already designated as Tropical Storm Rammasun. It is forecast to hit central Luzon as a Strong typhoon!
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#351 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 12, 2014 10:08 am

Image

Kelvin Wave and MJO increases cyclone formation across the area for next 2 weeks.

Continued enhanced convection west of the Date Line and dynamical model guidance indicate a continued potential for additional tropical cyclogenesis over the western Pacific basin during the remainder of the Week-1 period. Also, the MJO may contribute to an enhanced potential for additional tropical cyclone activity into the Week-2 period.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#352 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 12, 2014 10:19 am

Image

Long range showing Matmo...

Image

06Z also showing Matmo but luckily a fish...

Image

384 hours showing possible Halong...
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#353 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 12, 2014 10:23 am

Image

NWS Guam starts to mention possible tropical cyclone...

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVE WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER FAR
EASTERN MICRONESIA COULD MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AND START TO
AFFECT THE MARIANAS IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY TIME FRAME.

MODELS STILL HINT AT A CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND MOVE IT WESTWARD NORTH OF POHNPEI BY TUESDAY.
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#354 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:38 am

93W Thread

94W Thread

:uarrow: Hyperlink

2 Invest designated while i was gone...

WPAC on a hypertrain...
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#355 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:41 am

After Super Typhoon Neoguri, we are currently tracking our 3rd typhoon of the season, Rammasun.

Tally is now
9 tropical storms
3 typhoons
1 super typhoon
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Re:

#356 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:44 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:After Super Typhoon Neoguri, we are currently tracking our 3rd typhoon of the season, Rammasun.

Tally is now
9 tropical storms
3 typhoons
1 super typhoon


Actually now 4th typhoon with Rammasun! :D
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#357 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:02 am

Image

Typhoon Matmo in the Philippine Sea

Image

Matmo east of Luzon while Halong is developing northwest of Wake Island...

Image

Matmo makes landfall south of Shanghai, World's largest City, while Halong struggles to develop...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Image

Super long range...Typhoon Nakri east of Wake Island development starts off in the Central Pacific...
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#358 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:47 am

Very dangerous Cat 3 about to make landfall.
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Re: Re:

#359 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:14 am

euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:After Super Typhoon Neoguri, we are currently tracking our 3rd typhoon of the season, Rammasun.

Tally is now
9 tropical storms
3 typhoons
1 super typhoon


Actually now 4th typhoon with Rammasun! :D

I base TY and TS on JMA, so Rammasun is the 3rd.
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euro6208

Re: Re:

#360 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 6:24 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:After Super Typhoon Neoguri, we are currently tracking our 3rd typhoon of the season, Rammasun.

Tally is now
9 tropical storms
3 typhoons
1 super typhoon


Actually now 4th typhoon with Rammasun! :D

I base TY and TS on JMA, so Rammasun is the 3rd.


Image

Yes 4th typhoon it is...
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