2014 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

JTWC's 2013 best track is done.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2013/2013s-bwp/

Haiyan remains at 170 knots, Usagi downgraded to borderline cat4/5... Lekima stays at 140 knots??? the last one...Lekima stays at 140!what!

[euro6208]

GFS developing 3 more tropical cyclones long range. 2 crossover from the CPAC. Very el ninoish...

[euro6208]

JTWC's 2013 best track is done.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2013/2013s-bwp/

Haiyan remains at 170 knots, Usagi downgraded to borderline cat4/5... Lekima stays at 140 knots??? the last one...Lekima stays at 140!what!

WP, 31, 2013110712, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1290E, 170, 895, ST, 34, NEQ, 130, 100, 115, 130, 1003, 200, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110712, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1290E, 170, 895, ST, 50, NEQ, 65, 60, 55, 70, 1003, 200, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110712, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1290E, 170, 895, ST, 64, NEQ, 50, 35, 30, 50, 1003, 200, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110718, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1269E, 170, 895, ST, 34, NEQ, 130, 115, 120, 130, 1000, 220, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110718, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1269E, 170, 895, ST, 50, NEQ, 65, 60, 60, 70, 1000, 220, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110718, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1269E, 170, 895, ST, 64, NEQ, 50, 45, 40, 50, 1000, 220, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110800, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1247E, 165, 899, ST, 34, NEQ, 130, 115, 120, 130, 1000, 220, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110800, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1247E, 165, 899, ST, 50, NEQ, 65, 60, 60, 70, 1000, 220, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,
WP, 31, 2013110800, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1247E, 165, 899, ST, 64, NEQ, 50, 45, 40, 50, 1000, 220, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,

Very impressive. Highest sustained winds in any Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone!

[mrbagyo]

GFS developing 3 more tropical cyclones long range. 2 crossover from the CPAC. Very el ninoish...

will that coincide with arrival of MJO?

[euro6208]

I agree this is stronger than 140 knots. Look at that dark grey completely surrounding a very small distinct eye plus system is very small...I would say peak was likely 150 to 155 knots for Lekima...

[euro6208]

GFS developing 3 more tropical cyclones long range. 2 crossover from the CPAC. Very el ninoish...

will that coincide with arrival of MJO?

I think MJO will be in Phrase 8 by then which should place it over the Western Hemisphere. Maybe kelvin wave related...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

After possible typhoon Rammasun, there is another typhoon [in the latest GFS run] that is forecast to deepen to 960mb-possible category 2 typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I agree this is stronger than 140 knots. Look at that dark grey completely surrounding a very small distinct eye plus system is very small...I would say peak was likely 150 to 155 knots for Lekima...

Why don't you post this on the 2013 thread? I posted there last night [my time] because my post was about the 2013 typhoon BT changes.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GEM/CMC showing a crossover from the CPAC intensifying to a minimal typhoon, coinciding with another stronger typhoon and a weaker typhoon over SE CHINA in 240 hours.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

09W is already designated as Tropical Storm Rammasun. It is forecast to hit central Luzon as a Strong typhoon!

[euro6208]

Kelvin Wave and MJO increases cyclone formation across the area for next 2 weeks.

Continued enhanced convection west of the Date Line and dynamical model guidance indicate a continued potential for additional tropical cyclogenesis over the western Pacific basin during the remainder of the Week-1 period. Also, the MJO may contribute to an enhanced potential for additional tropical cyclone activity into the Week-2 period.

[euro6208]

Long range showing Matmo...



06Z also showing Matmo but luckily a fish...



384 hours showing possible Halong...

[euro6208]

NWS Guam starts to mention possible tropical cyclone...

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVE WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER FAR
EASTERN MICRONESIA COULD MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AND START TO
AFFECT THE MARIANAS IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY TIME FRAME.

MODELS STILL HINT AT A CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND MOVE IT WESTWARD NORTH OF POHNPEI BY TUESDAY.

[euro6208]

93W Thread

94W Thread

Hyperlink

2 Invest designated while i was gone...

WPAC on a hypertrain...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

After Super Typhoon Neoguri, we are currently tracking our 3rd typhoon of the season, Rammasun.

Tally is now
9 tropical storms
3 typhoons
1 super typhoon

[euro6208]

After Super Typhoon Neoguri, we are currently tracking our 3rd typhoon of the season, Rammasun.

Tally is now
9 tropical storms
3 typhoons
1 super typhoon

Actually now 4th typhoon with Rammasun!

[euro6208]

Typhoon Matmo in the Philippine Sea



Matmo east of Luzon while Halong is developing northwest of Wake Island...



Matmo makes landfall south of Shanghai, World's largest City, while Halong struggles to develop...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Super long range...Typhoon Nakri east of Wake Island development starts off in the Central Pacific...

[euro6208]

Very dangerous Cat 3 about to make landfall.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

After Super Typhoon Neoguri, we are currently tracking our 3rd typhoon of the season, Rammasun.

Tally is now
9 tropical storms
3 typhoons
1 super typhoon

Actually now 4th typhoon with Rammasun!

I base TY and TS on JMA, so Rammasun is the 3rd.

[euro6208]

After Super Typhoon Neoguri, we are currently tracking our 3rd typhoon of the season, Rammasun.

Tally is now
9 tropical storms
3 typhoons
1 super typhoon

Actually now 4th typhoon with Rammasun!

I base TY and TS on JMA, so Rammasun is the 3rd.

Yes 4th typhoon it is...