TheStormExpert wrote:What is the pattern like now?
Well what I see is decent waves coming off Africa then encountering hostile conditions west of 40. Then conditions seem to get better past 60. That would jive with a strong area of dry air that Wxman57 pointed out a few days back in a graphic for the 500mb Humidity of the first two weeks in July. The ridge looks normal with no significant trough pattern to cause early recurvature. Let see how it continues to play out.