Global model runs discussion

blp · #7021 Postby **blp** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 10:52 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:What is the pattern like now?

Well what I see is decent waves coming off Africa then encountering hostile conditions west of 40. Then conditions seem to get better past 60. That would jive with a strong area of dry air that Wxman57 pointed out a few days back in a graphic for the 500mb Humidity of the first two weeks in July. The ridge looks normal with no significant trough pattern to cause early recurvature. Let see how it continues to play out.

Hurricaneman · #7022 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:06 pm

blp wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:What is the pattern like now?

Well what I see is decent waves coming off Africa then encountering hostile conditions west of 40. Then conditions seem to get better past 60. That would jive with a strong area of dry air that Wxman57 pointed out a few days back in a graphic for the 500mb Humidity of the first two weeks in July. The ridge looks normal with no significant trough pattern to cause early recurvature. Let see how it continues to play out.

The modeled pattern is for not much east of 60W but that is very much a dangerous pattern as it seems quite favorable west of that point

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

blp · #7023 Postby **blp** » Thu Jul 17, 2014 11:34 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
The modeled pattern is for not much east of 60W but that is very much a dangerous pattern as it seems quite favorable west of that

Yes It could be a problem but I see most of the.Carribean being hostile as well. Take a look at the precipitation graphic below for mid August which shows dry conditions from 40W to 80W south of 15N. Similar to early July. It looks like if a wave gets above 15N it could be a problem but if it keeps that southern track it will have hard time until W. Carribean. The Bermuda High will be crucial as it is in most seasons. We need to see how strong it will be and will it keep a system from recurving.

Wxman57 graphic early July

#7024 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:06 pm

GFS ensembles show MDR activity. When I see a wave organizing with a well defined low then I will believe.

TheStormExpert · #7025 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:GFS ensembles show MDR activity. When I see a wave organizing with a well defined low then I will believe.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.png

Is this Pouch 03L or something else? And is the Euro showing this too?

#7026 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:42 pm

12Z CMC rather bullish to end the month of July - could be living up to it's nickname of "Constantly Making Cyclones" on this run

By the way the 999MB low hitting New York is pouch 03L being discussed in the other thread.

240 hours, July 30th:

ninel conde · #7027 Postby **ninel conde** » Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:31 pm

the high is in the ideal position for an east coast hurricane but it seems a bit over done given the hostile conditions.

#7028 Postby **jlauderdal** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:28 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
blp wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:What is the pattern like now?

Well what I see is decent waves coming off Africa then encountering hostile conditions west of 40. Then conditions seem to get better past 60. That would jive with a strong area of dry air that Wxman57 pointed out a few days back in a graphic for the 500mb Humidity of the first two weeks in July. The ridge looks normal with no significant trough pattern to cause early recurvature. Let see how it continues to play out.

The modeled pattern is for not much east of 60W but that is very much a dangerous pattern as it seems quite favorable west of that point

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

west of 60 is where you want development if you like landfalling hurricanes...the cape verde long trackers get lots of luv but west of 60 for landfall is really where its at...enjoy, just getting going folks

#7029 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:37 am

latest GFS has something else forming in the MDR in about 6 days and moving through the caribbean

TheStormExpert · #7030 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:30 pm

Alyono wrote:latest GFS has something else forming in the MDR in about 6 days and moving through the caribbean

Looks like TS Chantal and Dorian from last year all over again! :lol:

Hurricaneman · #7031 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:59 pm

Alyono wrote:latest GFS has something else forming in the MDR in about 6 days and moving through the caribbean

and landfalling as a strong tropical wave in Florida at 384 so I wouldn't believe the fact that this develops at 168hrs since the GFS has been horrible with tropical cyclogenisis

Hammy · #7032 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:44 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Alyono wrote:latest GFS has something else forming in the MDR in about 6 days and moving through the caribbean

and landfalling as a strong tropical wave in Florida at 384 so I wouldn't believe the fact that this develops at 168hrs since the GFS has been horrible with tropical cyclogenisis

I'd give it a chance and see what happens since it seems to have been upgraded following the issues in mid-June, and not only hasn't falsely developed anything since, it ended up on the weaker end with both Arthur and TD2.

#7033 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:41 pm

The GFS may be picking up on the large area of unsettled weather over SW Niger / Southern Mali / Burkina Faso best seen on the 7:00 hour visible from earlier today

That should move west in a position within the MDR SW of the Cape Verde islands in about 5-7 days when the GFS first shows genesis possibly beginning:

#7034 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:57 am

If the long-range CFS model is correct, we will need to wait until the end of August before something of significance tries to get going:

ninel conde · #7035 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:43 pm

probably alot longer than that. pretty clear now that we are entering a very winterlike pattern.

floridasun78 · #7036 Postby **floridasun78** » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:45 pm

tooooo early say season over we not into winter like patter we in summer patter what we need watch is El Niño patter

ninel conde · #7037 Postby **ninel conde** » Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:55 pm

it was dead last season with the pacific sst's much cooler. we have every single factor pointing negative this season.

TheStormExpert · #7038 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:28 pm

Yeah definitely not looking good at all the remainder of the season for any Tropical Cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Even homegrown/close-in development for the remainder of the season now seems iffy to me.

100feettstormsurge · #7039 Postby **100feettstormsurge** » Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:25 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Yeah definitely not looking good at all the remainder of the season for any Tropical Cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Even homegrown/close-in development for the remainder of the season now seems iffy to me.

It still only takes one for a huge impact, and there's a lot of time since any effects of El Nino won't be felt for weeks, if not months.

stormlover2013 · #7040 Postby **stormlover2013** » Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:32 pm

Lol it's not even August yet, long ways to go

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