ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Another look at visible this morning. As I mentioned a fairly impressive circulation, just needs the deep convection to stay closer to the LLC.

[northjaxpro]

Very little change overnight. If convection doesn't get closer to the LLC during the day today, I can't see this system surviving. The ole' visit from Bones may not be too far off. We will find out as time progresses.

[Syx6sic]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$ Forecaster Pasch

[Blown Away]

Very little change overnight. If convection doesn't get closer to the LLC during the day today, I can't see this system surviving. The ole' visit from Bones may not be too far off. We will find out as time progresses.

I kinda disagree, we've seen TD's and TS's where most of the LLC was exposed but convection firing in 1 quadrent... Just looking at the satellite now, 93L has alot going for it being just an Invest...

[NDG]

Not sure if it can do much with so much of the magic Dust still surrounding 93L clearly seen on visible satellite due to the low angle of the sun early in the mornings.

[hurricaneCW]

Never fall asleep on a strong vigorous disturbance even if it may not look like much convectively because any favorable window and it could easily and quickly get its act together. At least some impact towards the islands is likely with a question mark after that.

[TheStormExpert]

The NW Quadrant is the area that is REALLY struggling due to this dry air/SAL. Actually it's whole north side looks kind of like crap, the southern half is where the convection has basically been confined since last night.

[Frank2]

I'm surprised the NHC is making that much of a 20-30 kt swirl with two thunderstomrs on the southern boundary - guess they just choosing to err on the side of caution, though as the pro mets have said conditions are only getting more hostile as it moves westward into an area of strong shear...

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=8&lon=-52&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

Is the LLC opening up?

[Blown Away]

JMHO, if 93L is moving closer to the 20mph mark and continues to be a shallow system mostly devoid of convection, I don't see 93L gaining the latitude at the rate forecasted by the global models... I wouldn't be surprised to to see the 0-72 hour path continue to shift west...

[Blown Away]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2014073112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 514W, 30, 1010, LO

[Alyono]

Looking at visible, I am not 100% sure this is closed any longer. Having trouble seeing westerly winds south of the center in an Earth relative framework

[northjaxpro]

Very little change overnight. If convection doesn't get closer to the LLC during the day today, I can't see this system surviving. The ole' visit from Bones may not be too far off. We will find out as time progresses.

I kinda disagree, we've seen TD's and TS's where most of the LLC was exposed but convection firing in 1 quadrent... Just looking at the satellite now, 93L has alot going for it being just an Invest...

This is true. However, given the amount of dry air already present, especially in the north and northwestern quadrant, 93L faces an uphill battle to scour out. Convection has to get close to the LLC quickly for the vortex to maintain itself. Conditions overall just are not good out there , and even if 93L can survive today, not sure if the system can maintain the next 48 hours.

[Gustywind]

Making a comeback... with increasing numbers

31/1145 UTC 11.0N 51.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
30/1745 UTC 10.0N 46.4W TOO WEAK 93L

[NDG]

Based on the 12z Best Track position, it is calculated that 93L is now tracking at 19.5 mph in average over the last 6 hrs, so definitely picking up some speed.

[underthwx]

I think aircraft will find TS this afternoon. ..my opinion only

[Blown Away]

Based on the 12z Best Track position, it is calculated that 93L is now tracking at 19.5 mph in average over the last 6 hrs, so definitely picking up some speed.

Yep, I bet the 0-72 hour track continues to shift West because of the forward speed... No signs of a hard NW turn coming... JMHO

[gatorcane]

Saved vis loop, naked swirl alert and clearly struggling still, LLC racing to the W to WNW:

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to see signs of a new convective burst south of the center. Let's see if it can attempt to wrap around closer to the center like last night. For now, that swirl is hauling.