ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Shear + dry air + DMIN + decreasing convection = 93L is in trouble!

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[Rail Dawg]

My charts say the birthing of Bertha.

[somethingfunny]

I did not understand increasing the chances to 70 percent. This was always a convective issue, and the convection was in a decreasing trend this morning

Its because of the added human element today. Once recon goes in, all of your apples become oranges.

[TheStormExpert]

My charts say the birthing of Bertha.

Your charts will most likely be wrong then.

[Rail Dawg]

My charts say the birthing of Bertha.

Your charts will most likely be wrong then.

Not the first time! Nor the last. I've been fooled more times than I can count.

[Rail Dawg]

Lots of economic data is generated by what NHC says also.

Oil prices being just one.

[Blown Away]

Here is the progression, per the intensity models, pretty much nothing impressive expected for at least 24 hours and then an increase... BTW, 12z GFS kills 93L immediately.

[TheStormExpert]

http://i61.tinypic.com/11rqgzp.jpg

Here is the progression, per the intensity models, pretty much nothing impressive expected for at least 24 hours and then an increase... BTW, 12z GFS kills 93L immediately.

Levi Cowan on Twitter said a few days ago that those intensity model do not take in the fact that there is SAL surrounding 93L. They normally take in the shear, and dry air to an extent.

[Hammy]

I highly doubt they'll find TS winds let alone anything worth upgrading at this point, it had its last gasp and seems to be DOA at this point.

[floridasun78]

let see plane find

[abajan]

For what it's worth, our Met Office have issued the following weather bulletin:

The Barbados Meteorological Services is monitoring the progress of an area of low pressure centered near 11°North...51°West, or about 600 miles...(960 km) to the east-southeast of Barbados. Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the system have remained fairly persistent
during the morning, and while environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, any additional strengthening could lead to the formation of a tropical depress ion within the next 12 – 24 hours. The system is moving towards the west - northwest at 15 – 20 mph... (28 – 37 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

On this present track the system is expected to begin affecting Barbados by tomorrow
afternoon, with the likelihood of some pockets of moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds. Some of this activity will persist into the first half of Saturday. The Barbados Meteorological Services will continue to monitor the progress of this system, and this information will be updated as the conditions warrant. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon,
if necessary.

Source URL:
http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings-tbpb.php

[floridasun78]

plane may find td wind storm to se of system but nude low

[floridasun78]

who think this waste trip by hurr hunter? we low no cloth on

[fci]

Wow, so much negativity!
The experts wouldn't send out Recon if they didn't think it necessary and with 93L's proximity to The Islands perhaps they want to be certain of its danger; or not.

[floridasun78]

Wow, so much negativity!
The experts wouldn't send out Recon if they didn't think it necessary and with 93L's proximity to The Islands perhaps they want to be certain of its danger; or not.

look the way it look now unless their want study to see how Africa duct affect tropical wave

[Alyono]

perhaps a boater will waive at the hurricane hunter aircraft from the center under mostly sunny skies

[Fego]

http://i61.tinypic.com/11rqgzp.jpg

Here is the progression, per the intensity models, pretty much nothing impressive expected for at least 24 hours and then an increase... BTW, 12z GFS kills 93L immediately.

Levi Cowan on Twitter said a few days ago that those intensity model do not take in the fact that there is SAL surrounding 93L. They normally take in the shear, and dry air to an extent.

Great point. That was an answer I was looking for long time ago.

[floridasun78]

perhaps a boater will waive at the hurricane hunter aircraft from the center under mostly sunny skies

their maybe study of afica duct in area see if duct getting less in area or more

[Rail Dawg]

I've gone to bed many times thinking a system was dead and then Ka-Slam it's a TS.

These engines have a lot of variables.

[StarmanHDB]

Ever since TD 10 in 2005, I'm wary of and "dead" CV systems (you know, the "dead" system that somehow merged with another system to become Hurricane Katrina). Never say "die"!