ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- gatorcane
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Shear + dry air + DMIN + decreasing convection = 93L is in trouble!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- somethingfunny
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Re:
Alyono wrote:I did not understand increasing the chances to 70 percent. This was always a convective issue, and the convection was in a decreasing trend this morning
Its because of the added human element today. Once recon goes in, all of your apples become oranges.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
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Re: Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:Rail Dawg wrote:My charts say the birthing of Bertha.
Your charts will most likely be wrong then.
Not the first time! Nor the last. I've been fooled more times than I can count.

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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.
- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

Here is the progression, per the intensity models, pretty much nothing impressive expected for at least 24 hours and then an increase... BTW, 12z GFS kills 93L immediately.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:http://i61.tinypic.com/11rqgzp.jpg
Here is the progression, per the intensity models, pretty much nothing impressive expected for at least 24 hours and then an increase... BTW, 12z GFS kills 93L immediately.
Levi Cowan on Twitter said a few days ago that those intensity model do not take in the fact that there is SAL surrounding 93L. They normally take in the shear, and dry air to an extent.
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I highly doubt they'll find TS winds let alone anything worth upgrading at this point, it had its last gasp and seems to be DOA at this point.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
For what it's worth, our Met Office have issued the following weather bulletin:
The Barbados Meteorological Services is monitoring the progress of an area of low pressure centered near 11°North...51°West, or about 600 miles...(960 km) to the east-southeast of Barbados. Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the system have remained fairly persistent
during the morning, and while environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, any additional strengthening could lead to the formation of a tropical depress ion within the next 12 – 24 hours. The system is moving towards the west - northwest at 15 – 20 mph... (28 – 37 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
On this present track the system is expected to begin affecting Barbados by tomorrow
afternoon, with the likelihood of some pockets of moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds. Some of this activity will persist into the first half of Saturday. The Barbados Meteorological Services will continue to monitor the progress of this system, and this information will be updated as the conditions warrant. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon,
if necessary.
Source URL:
http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings-tbpb.php
The Barbados Meteorological Services is monitoring the progress of an area of low pressure centered near 11°North...51°West, or about 600 miles...(960 km) to the east-southeast of Barbados. Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the system have remained fairly persistent
during the morning, and while environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, any additional strengthening could lead to the formation of a tropical depress ion within the next 12 – 24 hours. The system is moving towards the west - northwest at 15 – 20 mph... (28 – 37 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
On this present track the system is expected to begin affecting Barbados by tomorrow
afternoon, with the likelihood of some pockets of moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds. Some of this activity will persist into the first half of Saturday. The Barbados Meteorological Services will continue to monitor the progress of this system, and this information will be updated as the conditions warrant. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon,
if necessary.
Source URL:
http://barbadosweather.org/MT-Warnings-tbpb.php
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Wow, so much negativity!
The experts wouldn't send out Recon if they didn't think it necessary and with 93L's proximity to The Islands perhaps they want to be certain of its danger; or not.
The experts wouldn't send out Recon if they didn't think it necessary and with 93L's proximity to The Islands perhaps they want to be certain of its danger; or not.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
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Re:
fci wrote:Wow, so much negativity!
The experts wouldn't send out Recon if they didn't think it necessary and with 93L's proximity to The Islands perhaps they want to be certain of its danger; or not.
look the way it look now unless their want study to see how Africa duct affect tropical wave
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- Fego
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Blown Away wrote:http://i61.tinypic.com/11rqgzp.jpg
Here is the progression, per the intensity models, pretty much nothing impressive expected for at least 24 hours and then an increase... BTW, 12z GFS kills 93L immediately.
Levi Cowan on Twitter said a few days ago that those intensity model do not take in the fact that there is SAL surrounding 93L. They normally take in the shear, and dry air to an extent.
Great point. That was an answer I was looking for long time ago.
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Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
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Re:
Alyono wrote:perhaps a boater will waive at the hurricane hunter aircraft from the center under mostly sunny skies
their maybe study of afica duct in area see if duct getting less in area or more
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
I've gone to bed many times thinking a system was dead and then Ka-Slam it's a TS.
These engines have a lot of variables.
These engines have a lot of variables.
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.
- StarmanHDB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Ever since TD 10 in 2005, I'm wary of and "dead" CV systems (you know, the "dead" system that somehow merged with another system to become Hurricane Katrina). Never say "die"!
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