ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

She really needs to start gaining some latitude if she's gonna clear DR.

[caribepr]

Looks like we are two hours or so ahead of schedule. The center is farther away from us than last night but we're getting the first winds now. Rain! Hooray!

[supercane4867]

PR radar loop with the circulation barely visible

[Hammy]

The vortex looks better defined than it did a few hours ago, looks like it might be trying to close off again, as there is a more N-NNE movement to the storms SE of the center rather than NW movement.

[Equilibrium]

Dont believe at any point this has been a open wave since the low first closed off and its not now. I did see a mention that it could become a open wave as a alternative senario in NHCA advisories over 24 hours ago i guess thats why a few of you are sticking to that conclusion.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

The recon will be flying in from Curacao so most likely the first quadrant that it will be sampling will be SW quadrant which will help in seeing if it is still closed or not. Ever since yesterday morning it has been going back and forth in being completely closed.

[NDG]

PR radar loop with the circulation barely visible

http://i.imgur.com/IJcoBUz.gif

What you mean barely visible? That's a fairly good circulation, as good as it has been for Bertha.

[Equilibrium]

The radar image posted above is is usually what is seen on a pre- deepening low as it starts to begin to tighten up.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

First Visible of the morning, not the prettiest storm, that's for sure.

I placed the X approximately where the COC is based on the radar loop from P.R.

[NDG]

Looking at the first images of the HR sat loop there is nice low level inflow from SSE & SE in its SE quadrant.

[Frank2]

Just my opinion, but on its current track it appears that Bertha will cross the Dominican Republic which would favor weakening or even dissipation..

Frank

[tolakram]

Visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[pgoss11]

Just my opinion, but on its current track it appears that Bertha will cross the Dominican Republic which would favor weakening or even dissipation..

Frank

It does look like it may cross over more of the Dominican Republic and I know sometimes the weaker storms seems to survive the cross over and regenerate once it's back over the water again.

[NDG]

Just my opinion, but on its current track it appears that Bertha will cross the Dominican Republic which would favor weakening or even dissipation..

Frank

Yeap, she better start moving almost NW pretty soon to make the Mona Passage otherwise she will be going through the DR.

[NDG]

What's up with the recon flight, I thought it was supposed to take off about an hour ago?

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest vis loops this morning, it looks to me like Bertha is tracking quite a bit south of the next NHC forecast point.

Bertha is also racing WNW.

Graphic as how I see it:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jlauderdal]

drought buster

[Gustywind]

Be safe and dry Cycloneye,hoping that you have some big showers to erase a little bit the extreme severe drought.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014

...BERTHA MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 64.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[pgoss11]

Looking at the latest vis loops this morning, it looks to me like Bertha is tracking quite a bit south of the next NHC forecast point.

Bertha is also racing WNW.

Graphic as how I see it:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In that graphic it does appear to be south of the forecasted track. I know sometime tomorrow the NHC is expecting a more NW turn, but it sure is moving fast. I wonder if the track will be adjusted to left a little.