WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

You can see how much energy halong was able to use to rapidly strengthen...

Conditions still quite favorable for another burst of strengthening...

[euro6208]

How i wish halong was like this current state when it impacted Guam...Crazy...

Be careful what you wish for. When I got so excited and had adrenaline rush during typhokn Haiyan, it ended up in a MAJOR DISASTER. It is quite inconsiderate when you wish for a super typhoon to hit your place, think about those who are not weather enthusiasts and fearing of strong storms ( due to Paka or Pongsona).

Guam can withstand these kind of storms...Only major concern here is inland flooding especially low lying areas...Typhoons are like thunderstorms here...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How i wish halong was like this current state when it impacted Guam...Crazy...

Be careful what you wish for. When I got so excited and had adrenaline rush during typhokn Haiyan, it ended up in a MAJOR DISASTER. It is quite inconsiderate when you wish for a super typhoon to hit your place, think about those who are not weather enthusiasts and fearing of strong storms ( due to Paka or Pongsona).

Guam can withstand these kind of storms...Only major concern here is inland flooding especially low lying areas...

But it is inconsiderate. Don't take advantage on the preparations and resiliency of your place. Halong had mesovortices over its eye and could multiply the winds a lot and would make it more catastrophic for Guam. As your place is more developed, things are more expensive, and if there would be damage it will be several billions more. Guam had no category 5 landfall for a long time.

[supercane]

JTWC 15Z in at 130kt:
WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.9N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.0N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.9N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.7N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 132.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 689 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

How i wish halong was like this current state when it impacted Guam...Crazy...

Be careful what you wish for. When I got so excited and had adrenaline rush during typhokn Haiyan, it ended up in a MAJOR DISASTER. It is quite inconsiderate when you wish for a super typhoon to hit your place, think about those who are not weather enthusiasts and fearing of strong storms ( due to Paka or Pongsona).

Guam can withstand these kind of storms...Only major concern here is inland flooding especially low lying areas...Typhoons are like thunderstorms here...

If that is the case you must get very weird Thunderstorms.

[euro6208]

latest on Super Typhoon Halong...

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR
25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 689 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH A 16 NM EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 031251Z METOP-B IMAGE
INDICATES A DETERIORATING INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY AN ELONGATED
SECONDARY EYEWALL. CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS) ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE CONSTRAINED AT T7.0 (140 KNOTS). BASED ON THE DEGRADED
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
130 KNOTS FOR THE TIME BEING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE. AS
INDICATED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED
VIGOROUS, ESPECIALLY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, DESPITE SOME PRESSURE ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING SOUTH OF JAPAN. RECENT 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE A WEAKENING,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED SOUTH OF
CENTRAL JAPAN WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM TAIWAN TO THE
RYUKYU ISLANDS. STY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS, DUE TO THE POSITION OF TD 12W, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW STY 11W TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF GFDN AND COAMPS-TC, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STR, THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 115-NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE TWO OUTLIERS, FAVORING
ECMWF AND THE JGSM ENSEMBLE. STY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WITH GREATER SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS. AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN JAPAN, CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, HOWEVER,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS BUILD THE STR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO VARYING
DEGREES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AS A MINOR EXTENSION OF THE STR BUILDS TEMPORARILY
NEAR KYUSHU, JAPAN. IN ADDITION TO COAMPS-TC AND GFDN, GFS AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) DEPICT A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD SHIKOKU
AND CENTRAL JAPAN, HOWEVER, GFS DEVELOPS AN ERRONEOUSLY LARGE SYSTEM
AND DRIVES IT INTO THE STR, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. THEREFORE, THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND JGSM ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER
TAU 72 TO OFFSET GFS, COAMPS-TC AND GFDN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU 24 AND THE DEPICTION OF THE
TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

eye completely collaspe but still discernible...outflow remains perfect and an outer band is developing in the northern periphery...

[euro6208]

Euro has intense halong passing to the east of Okinawa and a very powerful typhoon landfall for Japan in Kyushu...





GFS is more east and landfall around the Tokyo area...

Both models agreeing on a very severe typhoon for Japan...

[euro6208]

Sun setting on Super Typhoon Halong...

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thank all for updates and stupendous graphics/images. Lots of friends and dear ones in Japan, so wish them preparation and safety through this storm, as well as to all in its path.

[dexterlabio]

Recent microwave imagery appears to show collapsing inner eyewall, ?EWRC. (METOP is admittedly low res, but would be consistent with satellite imagery).

The way I see it, looks like the secondary eyewall became elongated due to VWS. Even for a typhoon undergoing EWRC, the over-all structure of Halong has deteriorated a lot...a bit of dry air and wind shear could also be the culprit...

[Equilibrium]

So despite looking at it's best with a warmer eye, very cold cloud tops and increased outflow...The intensity increased by only 5 knots???

No way this is only a minor category 5...If recon were to go in, they would likely find winds of 150 knots and cp of 905...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ryan Maue
‏
In the Pacific, if you see intensity forecast for anything, assume it's underdone. So far JTWC (& NHC w/some EPAC storms) is conservative

[supercane]

Catchup from 18Z advisories:
WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 15.1N 134.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 16.3N 132.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 041800UTC 18.1N 131.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 051800UTC 20.9N 131.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 061800UTC 24.6N 130.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
120HF 071800UTC 28.0N 129.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT =

WTKO20 RKSL 031800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 031800UTC 16.2N 131.4E
MOVEMENT WNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 041800UTC 18.3N 130.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 051800UTC 21.1N 130.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 061800UTC 25.1N 130.1E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
96HR
POSITION 071800UTC 27.9N 129.6E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 081800UTC 30.5N 129.4E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

WTPQ20 BABJ 031800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC
00HR 16.3N 131.4E 915HPA 62M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 15KM/H
P+12HR 17.3N 130.2E 910HPA 65M/S
P+24HR 18.5N 129.4E 915HPA 62M/S
P+36HR 20.0N 129.1E 920HPA 60M/S
P+48HR 21.6N 129.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 23.3N 129.2E 935HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 24.9N 129.1E 940HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 27.7N 129.0E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 30.7N 129.4E 960HPA 40M/S=

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.2N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.5N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.6N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 28.2N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.7N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 131.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

WTPH21 RPMM 031800
TD WARNING 07
TY HALONG (1411) TIME 031800 UTC
00 16.2N 131.3E 938HPA 54M/S
PO6HR WNW AT 03M/S
P+24 18.6N 129.9E
P+48 21.9N 129.7E
P+72 25.3N 129.8E=

[supercane]

00Z advisories reflect recent weakening, with JTWC significantly lower (130->115kt):
WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1411 HALONG (1411)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 16.5N 130.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 18.7N 129.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 060000UTC 21.8N 129.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 070000UTC 25.0N 129.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 080000UTC 28.0N 130.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
120HF 090000UTC 30.7N 130.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 040000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HALONG 1411 (1411) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC
00HR 16.5N 130.8E 925HPA 55M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
450KM SOUTHEAST
480KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 150KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
150KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 70KM NORTHEAST
70KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
70KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 14KM/H
P+12HR 17.6N 129.9E 930HPA 52M/S
P+24HR 19.2N 129.4E 930HPA 52M/S
P+36HR 21.1N 129.0E 935HPA 50M/S
P+48HR 22.7N 128.9E 935HPA 50M/S
P+60HR 24.2N 128.8E 940HPA 48M/S
P+72HR 26.1N 128.8E 945HPA 45M/S
P+96HR 28.4N 128.5E 950HPA 42M/S
P+120HR 31.2N 129.0E 960HPA 38M/S=

WTKO20 RKSL 040000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 1411 HALONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 040000UTC 16.5N 130.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 050000UTC 19.0N 129.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 060000UTC 21.8N 129.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 070000UTC 25.2N 129.3E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT
96HR
POSITION 080000UTC 28.2N 129.2E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 090000UTC 30.9N 129.4E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 16.7N 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.2N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.8N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 25.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.1N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 130.6E.
TYPHOON 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (NAKRI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HALONG) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND WEAKENED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT
ELONGATION OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY DUE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 032101Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEALS THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS WEAKENED, YET TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 115 KNOTS BASED
ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE STRONG VWS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DECREASED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A REDUCTION IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115
KNOTS AND AN OVERALL DECREASE IN DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
B. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND
WESTERN JAPAN, CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOWING TY 11W TO
TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK DESPITE IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED WEST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 72 TO OFFSET COAMPS-TC AND GFDN.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND THE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND STR IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Easy come easy go. While still overall powerful as ASCAT shows:


NW eyewall eroding as seen on microwave:


and Dvorak classifications crashing down:
TXPQ22 KNES 040317
TCSWNP
A. 11W (HALONG)
B. 04/0232Z
C. 16.7N
D. 130.5E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.5/W2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...dt=4.5 BASED ON MG RING WITH DG EYE EMBEDDED BY LG. PT-5.0.
MET=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

[Equilibrium]

[supercane]

Old news. See above advisories posted earlier. If you need to see it graphically, JTWC at 115kt = 130mph, down from 130kt=150mph:


And other agencies coming down too, but more slowly. For example, JMA down to 95kt from 100kt:


And JTWC agreeing with SAB's sharply lower Dvorak classification:
TPPN11 PGTW 040337
A. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG)
B. 04/0232Z
C. 16.8N
D. 130.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. PT AGREES; MET WAS 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/2156Z 16.4N 131.1E GPMI
LONG

At least it now appears that system may pass east of Amami Oshima, but Kyushu and Shikoku in for a hit.

[Equilibrium]

:uarrow: Old news. See above advisories posted earlier. If you need to see it graphically, JTWC at 115kt = 130mph, down from 130kt=150mph:


And other agencies coming down too, but more slowly. For example, JMA down to 95kt from 100kt:


And JTWC agreeing with SAB's sharply lower Dvorak classification:
TPPN11 PGTW 040337
A. TYPHOON 11W (HALONG)
B. 04/0232Z
C. 16.8N
D. 130.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/5.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. PT AGREES; MET WAS 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/2156Z 16.4N 131.1E GPMI
LONG

At least it now appears that system may pass east of Amami Oshima, but Kyushu and Shikoku in for a hit.

Ok Boss.

Btw ascat is only good upto 65 knots no point posting it.

[supercane]

Btw ascat is only good upto 65 knots no point posting it.

Was showing ASCAT for wind fields, not intensity.

[Equilibrium]

Model, Area: GFS, West Pacific






from a latest model.